With the NFL regularly shattering viewership records, is it fair to say the league is more popular on television now than ever?
When is a record not a record?
The NFL has enjoyed record audiences of late, but it would not be accurate to say more people are watching than ever. Particularly in the out-of-home era, a Nielsen record is more indicative of methodology than viewer habits.
Last week’s Chiefs-Bills Divisional Round game averaged more than 50 million viewers on CBS, the largest NFL audience on record outside of the Super Bowl and conference title games. Yet the only reason for that superlative is the fact that Nielsen spent decades undercounting viewership. Until 2016, Nielsen only tracked viewing in its panelists’ homes, omitting the considerable amount of viewing — particularly for sports — done in bars, restaurants and other public places. The company began measuring out-of-home viewing in 2016 and took another four years before it began including that data in its official viewership estimates.
All things being equal, Kansas City’s thrilling win was only the most-watched in seven years, since Packers-Cowboys in the 2017 Divisional Round. That game averaged 48.52 million per the official Nielsen record, but that was merely the in-home audience. Including out-of-home viewing — which as of 2017 was being measured, but not included in the official tally — it averaged more than 54 million.
Does that really mean anything? The reality is that viewership records only matter in press releases and articles based on said press releases. There are no advertisers who will look at an audience of 50 million and turn up their nose because it is not actually a viewership record. At the same time, sports ratings are generally discussed as a measure of popularity, with their actual currency — helping advertisers see when and where they should spend their money — largely overlooked. The prevailing narrative about the NFL is not just that the league is vastly more popular than any other sport or television program, but that more people are watching than ever. On that latter measure (and only on that latter measure), the NFL’s good times are being plainly overstated.
To put it another way, while the NFL has never been more dominant a draw relative to its competition, it does not compare as favorably to its past self. In 2010, the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game averaged nearly 58 million viewers on FOX, all solely on an in-home basis. Nearly 30 years ago in 1995, Cowboys-49ers averaged an in-home audience of 56.8 million viewers, and that was in a Nielsen universe comprised of nearly 70 million fewer people (247 million then, compared to 315 million now). According to the NFL, the most-watched conference championship game of all was Cowboys-49ers 42 years ago with a whopping 68.7 million viewers — a figure that will be borderline impossible to reach this year even with out-of-home viewing included. It is probable that with out-of-home viewing included, those games would have been averaging 60, 70 perhaps (in the case of the 1982 game) even 80 million viewers.
None of the above is to diminish the strength of the NFL audience. Out-of-home viewing does not guarantee record-high audiences, as any of the other sports can attest. In fact, out-of-home has not been enough to keep most other sports from hitting record-lows in recent years. Nonetheless, if one or both of Sunday’s conference title games is said to be the most-watched on record, keep in mind that most of those records were inadequate at best.
Ratings predictions
As for Sunday’s matchups, the NFL could have hardly asked for better pairings. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs face MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, while the 49ers host the league’s biggest underdog story of recent times, the resurgent Detroit Lions. Barring blowouts, both games should exceed the 50 million mark, and it seems likely that both will increase over last year — when 49ers-Eagles averaged 47.5 million in the early window and Bengals-Chiefs 53.1 million in primetime. For as much as the NFL has benefited from some skewed historical benchmarks, there is no shortage of flattering apples-to-apples comparisons.
— NFL AFC Championship: Chiefs-Ravens (3p Sun CBS). Prediction: 52.31 million.
— NFC Championship: Lions-49ers (6:30p Sun FOX). Prediction: 53.44 million.
