The NBA on ABC Christmas Day special only drew a 3.5 rating with a 10 share, the lowest for a Christmas Day NBA game since Mavericks/Kings drew a 3.1 in 2003. The Heat/Lakers series has seen declining ratings; in 2004, the game scored a 7.2 with a 21 share, and in 2005, the game scored a 4.8 rating with a 14 share.
Is this a bad sign for the upcoming series of NBA games on ABC? Not necessarily. While Christmas Day can usually be counted on to deliver the highest regular season ratings for ABC, the network does have a strong slate of upcoming games. With the exception of March 11 and March 25, ABC games will feature the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons or Miami Heat. Those six elite teams have enough national interest to possibly give ABC its highest regular season ratings average yet. Right now, the high water mark is 2.6, set in the 2002-03 season.
In the past, ABC’s NBA ratings have started out strong before faltering in March. The best example is of the 2004-05 season; that year, games on ABC were averaging a 3.2 from December to February. From March to April, games averaged a 1.7 rating. The reason for this ratings decline is the NCAA Tournament, which takes the attention of casual sports fans and basketball fans alike. NBC, even in the golden age of the NBA ratings-wise, would get poor ratings when airing games against the NCAAs. ABC would be wise to take a two week hiatus from airing NBA games during the NCAA Tournament; the average ratings would increase, which would only help the league.
This season, ABC offers two of its weakest matchups in March. On March 11 and 25, the network has three mediocre games to choose from, as part of its flexible schedule plan. Some of the teams involved in those games include the Sacramento Kings, Boston Celtics, New Orleans Hornets and Indiana Pacers — teams that are either barely over or just under .500. On March 18, ABC airs the Dallas Mavericks against the Detroit Pistons nationally, but that game will likely fall short of a 2.0 rating (last year, a close game between the Lakers and Cavaliers still only got a 1.7 rating, opposite NCAA Tournament games).
Despite likely poor ratings in March, ABC should at the very least have its regular season ratings increase from the previous year — something the network hasn’t done in its five years of NBA coverage. There are simply too many marquee matchups on the horizon (including Spurs/Mavericks on the final Sunday of the regular season) for the ratings to fall yet again.
