After three years of anonymous small market teams playing equally anonymous Canadian teams (at least anonymous on this side of the border), the NHL is looking at its most marketable Stanley Cup Final in recent memory.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Sidney Crosby, the biggest star in the NHL, will take on the venerable Detroit Red Wings starting Saturday night. With ratings already up dramatically this year, including a 77% increase for Conference Final games on Versus, these Stanley Cup Finals have the potential to be the highest rated in at least six years.
The last time the NHL had a final featuring a traditional power was in 2002, when the Red Wings beat the Carolina Hurricanes. Though the series only lasted five games, the ratings were superb by today’s standards. Games 1 and 2 on ESPN drew final national ratings of 2.3 and 2.6, and ABC drew a 3.3, 3.5 and 4.2 for the three remaining games.
While Red Wings/Penguins would appear to be an even better match-up, odds are that the ratings will not be quite that high. Most sporting events would have trouble reaching the numbers they achieved six years ago, and the NHL is no exception. Even though ratings are up dramatically this year, NBC would be satisfied with ratings in the 2.2 to 2.8 range.
Regardless of whether how high or low the ratings are for this marquee series, the NHL and NBC are virtually guaranteed a double digit increase in ratings. Last year’s Ducks/Senators series averaged a mere 1.6 for the three games on NBC, meaning Penguins/Red Wings only needs to average a 2.0 to see a solid 25% increase. Even a mere 1.8 average would equal a 13% increase.
One factor that could hurt ratings is a major scheduling conflict. Games 1 and 2 of the series will take place on Saturday and Monday in Detroit — at the same time as Games 3 and 4 of the Celtics/Pistons NBA Eastern Conference Final. That could cannibalize the ratings in Detroit for both series — but more so for the Red Wings.
Because both Red Wings games will be on Versus, while the Pistons games will be on ABC Saturday and ESPN Monday, there is a likelihood that the Pistons will win the ratings battle. Already in the playoffs, four Pistons/Magic second round games averaged a 10.5 on TNT, while five Red Wings/Stars Conference Final games averaged a 9.8 on Versus.
That being said, there is little doubt who will win the ratings battle next Wednesday; Game 3 of the Cup Finals will air on broadcast (NBC) in Detroit, while a potential Game 5 of Pistons/Celtics would air on cable (ESPN).
