Four days after the conclusion of its long-running NBA package, TNT Sports shifted gears Wednesday to its second-ever Stanley Cup Final. While the ratings for Panthers-Oilers are unlikely to come anywhere close to the Pacers-Knicks Eastern Conference Finals, owning exclusive rights to an entire major league championship series is a milestone for a cable network — in a way that even a higher-rated conference final cannot match.
The end of the NBA does not mean the end of live sports on TNT. In addition to the game and studio crews on-site in New York and Indianapolis for the NBA the past two weeks, TNT has been in Paris for the French Open and will now spend the next two weeks in South Florida and Edmonton. It was at Yankee Stadium and Dodger Stadium on Tuesday in a rare regular season baseball doubleheader, and during the rest of the summer will in Atlanta, Chicago, Sonoma (Ca.), Dover (Del.) and Indianapolis for NASCAR.
Warner Bros. Discovery spent much of last year sending a message to the industry that it remains open for business, even without the NBA — assembling a hodge-podge of rights, several of which were obtained via sublicense. It has been to an extent sports media smallball; a little Big 12 here, a little FIFA Club World Cup there. Outside of the French Open and BIG EAST, none of the deals are particularly extensive, but they have kept WBD in the mix.
Still, the most important deals for the future of WBD are the ones that were signed before the WBD/David Zaslav era began in 2022. The company’s NHL and Major League Baseball deals are set to expire in 2028. Its deal for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament expires in 2032. These are the deals struck in the eras of Time Warner and Warner Media, and unlike the Zaslav-era strategy of ‘a little bit of everything,’ they are more traditional long-term commitments worth hundreds of millions in rights fees. The key to any post-NBA relevance for WBD is going to be holding onto these properties.
Major League Baseball has been open about its intentions and preferences ahead of its next media rights deal in 2028, and none of the signs are particularly positive for WBD. After ESPN opted out of its MLB contract in February, commissioner Rob Manfred blasted not only the network but the entire cable model in a memo to owners: “[W]e do not believe Pay TV … is the future of video distribution or the best platform for our content.” While that comment was made in reference to ESPN, it would certainly apply to TBS (and FS1 for that matter).
Later in the memo, Manfred said MLB would be seeking “a new broadcast and/or streaming platform” to replace ESPN — not a cable network. It would seem fairly clear that MLB is particularly enamored with streaming, having struck bargain-basement deals with Apple TV+ and Roku.
In addition, MLB is seeking a first-of-its-kind 2028 media rights deal that combines its local and national rights. While that would not necessarily prevent a new deal with WBD, it is hard to see where an old school cable deal would fit in an otherwise groundbreaking media rights negotiation. Perhaps WBD could stay in the MLB business with a deal that is primarily for its streaming service (HBO) Max, but the chances of running back a TBS-led deal seem slim.
As for the NHL, there are no signs either way ahead of the next media rights deal. If one is looking for tea leaves to read, the league’s renewal with Rogers SportsNet in Canada could be a sign that Gary Bettman and company are not yet making an aggressive turn toward streaming. Then again, there is little reason to believe that the Canadian rights deal has any real implications for the U.S. negotiations.
If there is any concern with the NHL deal, it would be the ratings. ABC and TNT alternate exclusive coverage of the Stanley Cup Final, and it may not be tenable in the current era of television to have a championship series air exclusively on cable every other year. The ratings do not matter as much as outside observers think — and certainly they matter less than making as much media rights money as possible — but it would not be surprising if the NHL is hesitant to keep the Cup Final on cable into the 2030s.
As for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, it is worth noting that the unique partnership of CBS and TNT Sports has consisted of just two deals — the initial contract struck in 2010 and a 2016 renewal. Those deals not only predate the WBD era, they predate even the AT&T-led Warner Media era.
Given the uncertainty both at WBD and CBS, it is impossible to know what state either company will be in when this deal is up for renewal. If the Paramount-Skydance deal goes through, CBS is expected to become a more aggressive bidder on sports rights. Perhaps it will be in a position to acquire the tournament in full, with games on the broadcast network and Paramount+. If the deal does not go through, the uncertainty surrounding Paramount will be sufficient to wonder whether CBS can meaningfully compete for sports rights at all by 2032.
Either way, the partnership of CBS and TNT Sports was borne of very specific circumstances. For those who do not recall, CBS was no longer able to afford paying for the tournament by itself and at one point was willing to pay ESPN to take the rights off of its hands. It was only by entering into a joint bid with then-Turner Sports — which paid most of the rights fee — that CBS was able to continue its relationship with the tournament.
While the CBS-TNT partnership has worked well for both sides and for viewers, so much has already changed for both companies — and so much more will change in the next seven years — that one cannot just assume the arrangement extends into a third decade.
One of those potential changes could render all other considerations moot. CNBC reporter David Faber said last month that WBD is likely to spin off its cable networks, leaving the company with Warner Bros. studios and the Max streaming service. WBD has already announced a restructuring plan that separates its cable networks from its streaming and studio businesses, seemingly paving the way for such a move.
It is hard to imagine a spun off TNT Sports maintaining its current rights or competing for new properties without the resources of WBD — and especially without a streaming service in its arsenal.
So while the show goes on at TNT Sports, the future is shaky at best — and the next few years are crucial for one of sports media’s venerable brands.
