First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- College football on ABC, Clemson/Alabama. Prediction: 3.9. Final rating: 3.6. The first Saturday Night Football broadcast of the season saw a modest improvement over last year. The 3.6 for regional action featuring Clemson/Alabama marks a 9% increase over the comparable Tennessee/Cal game in ’07.
- U.S. Open on CBS, early round coverage (Saturday and Sunday). Prediction: 1.3 and 1.7. Final rating: 1.3 and 1.6. The first two days of U.S. Open coverage on CBS brought increased ratings. The 1.3 for coverage on Saturday marks an 8% increase from a 1.2 last year, while the 1.6 on Sunday is up 7% from a 1.5.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Pepsi 500. Prediction: 3.9. Final rating: 3.3. Ratings for the Pepsi 500 fell by double digits compared to last year. The 3.3 final national rating marks an 11% decline from a 3.7 for the comparable Sharp Aquos 500 in ’07.
- AVP Crocs Tour on NBC, Crocs Cup Shootout, women’s championship. Prediction: 1.3. Final rating: 0.8. While the 0.8 final rating for the women’s championship of the AVP Crocs Cup Shootout is less than impressive, NBC did far better with that telecast than with the AST Dew Tour on Saturday, which drew a 0.5.
- MLB on FOX, regional (8/23). Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 1.5. Opposite the Olympics, the 1.5 for FOX Saturday Baseball two weeks ago was a 25% drop from a 2.0 for coverage on the comparable Saturday last year. Including the 1.7 rating for last Saturday’s telecast, FOX is averaging a 2.1 rating for 22 MLB telecasts, down 13% from a 2.4 last year.
- LLWS on ABC, Championship Game (8/24). Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 2.1. Ratings for the championship game of the Little League World Series plummeted from last year. The 2.1 final rating marks a 36% decline from a 3.3 in ’07.
Ratings for Tennessee/UCLA on ESPN, WNBA on ABC, Deutsche Bank Championship on NBC and U.S. Open on CBS (Labor Day) unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL on FOX, Cowboys/Browns, 4 PM Sunday — The NFL gets into full swing tomorrow with the the self-proclaimed America’s team taking on the surprisingly overexposed Cleveland Browns. Last year, FOX averaged a 13.6 for Bears/Chargers. The Cowboys’ involvement should move the needle somewhat. Prediction: 14.3.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Bears/Colts, 8 PM Sunday — This rematch of Super Bowl XLI may have been a bigger deal a year ago. Coming off the disappointing numbers for Thursday night’s kickoff game, look for NBC to see another relatively low number on Sunday. Prediction: 9.6.
- Monday Night Football on ESPN, Vikings/Packers, 7 PM Monday — While ESPN would have no doubt crushed the cable ratings record if Brett Favre had ended up with the Vikings instead of the Jets, this MNF season opener should still pull in huge numbers despite the 7 PM start. Prediction: 9.9.
- U.S. Open on CBS, S. Williams/Jankovic, 9 PM Sunday — Delayed due to Tropical Storm Hanna, the women’s final at the U.S. Open will feature an American for only the third time since moving to prime time in 2001. With Sunday nights being far more conducive to good ratings than Saturdays, expect the best numbers for a U.S. Open final in several years. Prediction: 4.6.
- U.S. Open on CBS, Federer/Nadal or Murray, 5 PM Monday — Without an NFL lead-in and taking place in the afternoon on a workday, look for the men’s final of the U.S. Open to draw disappointing ratings. Expect the ratings to be much worse if Andy Murray knocks out Rafael Nadal. Prediction: 2.8 if Federer/Nadal, 1.9 if Federer/Murray.
- College football on ABC, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — Look for ABC’s slate of regional college football games to see a decent drop in the ratings from a 4.4/10 for the comparable Oregon/Michigan game last year. Prediction: 3.4.
- College football on ESPN, Miami/Florida, 8 PM Saturday — With NASCAR and the U.S. Open women’s final rained out, look for this battle of Florida rivals to draw solid numbers. Prediction: 2.7.
- Notre Dame Football on NBC, San Diego State/Notre Dame, 3:30 PM Saturday — Notre Dame football was awful on the field and worse in the ratings last year, as games on NBC averaged a record low 1.9 rating. While Notre Dame may end up having a better season, uninspiring match-ups like this one against San Diego State will not help ratings. Prediction: 1.8.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Chevy Rock & Roll 400, 1 PM Sunday — This was supposed to be the season premiere of NASCAR on ABC. Instead, ESPN gets a seventh NASCAR race, which will air directly opposite football on FOX and CBS. NASCAR held its own opposite the Olympics, but expect a poor rating this Sunday. Prediction: 2.8.
- WNBA on ABC, Silver Stars/Sun, 1 PM Sunday — With the NFL and NASCAR to compete with, this battle of WNBA conference leaders will surely finish among the lowest rated sporting events of the weekend. Prediction: 0.5.
- IRL on ABC, Peak Antifreeze & Motor Oil IndyCar 300, 3:30 PM Sunday — The finale of the IRL season has tough competition on Sunday. Look for ratings to dip from last year’s 0.9. Prediction: 0.8.
