Predictions for the next year in sports media.
Ratings
- NBA ratings have been steadily declining since LeBron James won his first championship in 2012, though the numbers are still well ahead of the doldrums of the mid-2000s. With James now on a mediocre Cavaliers team, ratings will decline even further in 2015. So far this season, most non-Cavaliers games have had declines in viewership compared to last year, and there is a strong possibility James and the Cavs will not be around to prop up the ratings in the conference and NBA Finals. Expect double-digit declines as a result, with the Eastern Conference Finals the lowest rated since 2008 and the NBA Finals the lowest since 2009.
- Look for the Cowboys’ return to the playoffs to provide a lift to the NFL’s postseason ratings. The Lions/Cowboys Wild Card game has the makings of an all-time record holder, though topping last year’s 47.1 million for 49ers/Packers will be a tall order. Even so, it should be at least the second-most watched Wild Card game ever (the current mark is 45.3 million). A potential Cowboys/Packers Divisional Round game easily tops 50 million, also a record, and any combination of the Cowboys, Seahawks or Packers sets a record in the NFC Championship Game. Cowboys or no Cowboys, the Super Bowl sets a new record with at least 113 million viewers.
- Expect big numbers for the new College Football Playoff, with the two semifinals generating the fifth and sixth largest audiences in cable history (trailing only the four BCS National Championship games on ESPN). The National Championship Game, regardless of the matchup, sets the all-time cable record — surpassing the current mark of 27.3 million for the Auburn/Oregon BCS title game in 2011.
- It will be hard for newcomer Fox Sports to match the effort and promotion ESPN gave the 2011 Women’s World Cup. The ratings, however, are a different story. Outside of the Japan/United States final (13.5M), no match in 2011 managed to earn even four million viewers on ESPN. With this year’s tournament in time-zone friendly Canada and a record sixteen telecasts set aside for broadcast TV, Fox Sports should top the four million mark more than once this year. If the U.S. can make the final again, look for viewership to settle somewhere between 2011 and the all-time record set in 1999 (18.0M).
- NASCAR’s television ratings slumped for most of the 2014 season, with only the drama of the revamped Chase For the Cup providing a lift in the final weeks of the season. Expect more of the same in 2015. Ratings should sink early in the season, especially on Fox Sports 1 and NBCSN. Expect a serious bounce for the last few races of the Chase, however — not only due to the new format, but also the shift of several races to broadcast network NBC.
- Last year’s first three golf majors plunged to record or near-record lows, including the lowest rating ever for the final round of the U.S. Open. The PGA Championship bucked the trend thanks to a dramatic primetime finish, but it remains to be seen whether that was an aberration or the start of a comeback. The former is more likely than the latter, and barring a Tiger Woods comeback golf’s majors should again hover around record low levels this year.
Personnel Moves
- Turner Sports moves Ernie Johnson back to the studio for its MLB Postseason coverage, replacing him with Brian Anderson on the lead TBS broadcast team.
- Rece Davis stays with ESPN, where he succeeds Chris Fowler as the host of College Gameday. Fowler relinquishes his studio duties to focus more on his role as ESPN’s lead play-by-play voice.
- Like Brent Musburger and Pam Oliver last year, another veteran broadcaster gets tossed aside despite continued solid work.
TV Deals
- Sports Business Daily‘s John Ourand usually gets these things right, so it makes little sense to go against his prediction that the NFL will re-up with CBS for another year of Thursday Night Football.
- The Big Ten renews its television contracts with ESPN/ABC and CBS (basketball). Under the deal, ESPN/ABC gets the Big Ten football championship game from FOX.
- The EPL agrees to a contract extension with NBC, but the network will no longer air every match. While NBC will have rights to most of the telecasts, a second, smaller TV package is carved out for ESPN — one that includes a new slate of Friday windows.
