Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NBA	Lakers/Celtics	ABC	3.4	3.5
Last Sunday’s Lakers/Celtics clash drew a 3.5 final rating on ABC, up 25% from Spurs/Lakers last year (2.8) and Cavaliers/Lakers in ’08 (2.8). The 3.5 rating is tied as the second-highest for a non-Christmas regular season NBA game on ABC since ’02.
NBA	Nuggets/Spurs	ABC	1.5	1.6
The 1.6 rating for last week’s Nuggets/Spurs game on ABC marks a 6% slide from Mavericks/Celtics last year (1.7), and an 11% drop from Celtics/Magic in ’08 (1.8).
NFL	Pro Bowl	ESPN	4.1	7.1
Despite a move to cable, the Pro Bowl drew its highest rating in 10 years. The NFL’s all-star game drew a 7.1 U.S. rating on ESPN last Sunday night, up 32% from last year’s game on NBC (5.4), and up 13% from the 2008 game on FOX (6.3). The 7.1 rating is the highest for the Pro Bowl since 2000 (8.6, ABC).
Golf (M)	Farmers Insurance Open, Third Round	CBS	1.2	1.5
Golf (M)	Farmers Insurance Open, Final Round	CBS	2.0	2.2
Ratings for the Farmers Insurance Open were up 25% on Saturday and 10% on Sunday.
NCAA BB (M)	Duke/Georgetown	CBS	1.5	1.6
Last week’s Duke/Georgetown game drew a 1.6 final rating on CBS, up 78% from regional action on the comparable date last year (0.9).
NCAA BB (M)	Florida/Tennessee or Minnesota/Ohio St.	CBS	1.1	1.3
CBS drew a 1.3 final rating for regional college basketball action last Sunday. There was no comparable telecast last year.
NHL	Red Wings/Penguins	NBC	1.2	1.0
NBC drew a 1.0 final rating for last Sunday’s Red Wings/Penguins game, even with Penguins/Flyers the previous week, and up 43% from the network’s fourth NHL telecast last season (Rangers/Flyers, 2/15/09).
Extreme	Winter X Games (1/31)	ESPN2	0.7	—
Ratings for the Winter X Games on ESPN2 last Sunday night were unavailable.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Saints/Colts	6:25 PM Sunday	CBS	42.7
The NFL regular season was the most-viewed since 1990, the Wild Card round was the most-viewed since ’94, the Divisional Round was the most-viewed since ’95, and the Conference Championship Round was the most-viewed since ’82. With that in mind, record viewership for Sunday’s Super Bowl XLIV is not just a possibility, but an expectation — especially coming off of record viewership for the past two games. That said, ratings and viewers are not the same thing, and a record rating for Saints/Colts seems out of the question. Last year’s Super Bowl (the most-viewed ever) drew a 42.0 rating, down from a 43.1 the previous year, and just the 4th-highest of the past 10 years. Expect ratings to rise slightly for this year’s game.
NFL	The Super Bowl Today	2 PM Sunday	CBS	10.5
The Super Bowl pregame show traditionally draws ratings on par with championship sporting events such as the NBA Finals, the final round of The Masters and the World Series — an impressive feat for a bloated studio show that airs during the afternoon. Ratings for last year’s pregame on NBC were unavailable, but the 2008 pregame on FOX drew a 10.8.
Other	Undercover Boss	10 PM Sunday	CBS	11.8
The post-Super Bowl timeslot is one of the most coveted in television. This year, CBS will debut the reality series Undercover Boss — the first time a reality series has aired after the super Bowl since ’04, when Survivor aired after Super Bowl XXXVIII. Last year, an hour-long episode of The Office drew just an 11.6 rating after the Super Bowl, the third-lowest rating ever for a post-Super Bowl program.
NBA	Magic/Celtics	2:30 PM Sunday	ABC	1.8
Opposite the Super Bowl pregame, ABC will air a clash between the NBA’s last two Eastern Conference champions. Last year, Cavaliers/Pistons drew a 1.8 rating opposite the Super Bowl pregame; in ’08, Mavericks/Pistons drew a 1.6.
NHL	Penguins/Capitals (or other NHL related programming)	12 PM Sunday	NBC	1.0
Blizzard conditions in Washington D.C. have put this marquee matchup of the NHL’s biggest stars — the Penguins’ Sidney Crosby and the Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin — in jeopardy. Assuming that NBC is able to air the game, expect a solid number for this growing NHL rivalry.
Golf (M)	Northern Trust Open, Third Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.5
Golf (M)	Northern Trust Open, Final Round	2:30 PM Sunday	NBC	2.1
The Northern Trust Open should not be affected by the absence of Tiger Woods, as he did not play in last year’s tournament either. However, competition from Super Bowl coverage should put a major dent in the ratings. Last year, third round coverage drew a 1.7 rating and final round coverage drew a 3.3.
NASCAR	Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying	1 PM Saturday	FOX	2.1
NASCAR on FOX makes its 2010 debut, following a relatively disappointing 2009 campaign. Last year, Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying drew a 2.4 rating, down from a 2.9 the previous year. Expect another decline this year, as the event has moved from Sunday to Saturday to avoid competing with Super Bowl coverage.
NASCAR	Budweiser Shootout	8 PM Saturday	FOX	5.0
Last year’s Budweiser Shootout drew a 4.9 rating in primetime on FOX — an impressive rating by almost any standard, but still down from the previous year (5.1). After a year where nearly every NASCAR telecast (including the Shootout and Pole Qualifying) saw declining ratings, will the sport’s fortunes turn around this year?
NCAA BB (M)	Cal/UCLA or Wiconsin/Michigan	4 PM Saturday	CBS	1.3
Expect CBS to see a solid rise in ratings for Saturday’s regional college basketball telecast. The telecast on the comparable date last year, which aired in an earlier timeslot, earned a mere 0.6.