Buffalo is one of the biggest — if not the biggest — hockey markets in the country. On May 6, a postgame show aired on the Buffalo NBC affiliate following the Sabres victory over the Rangers pulled in a 23.5 rating locally, utterly trouncing the competing Suns/Spurs Game on ABC (which drew a 0.5 rating locally). The game preceding, in which the Sabres advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, drew a 32.6/60 locally.
Those huge ratings may not make much of a dent nationally (the same game that drew a 32.6/60 in Buffalo drew a 0.9 final rating nationally) but they do at least help aid NBC’s numbers.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings are a perennial hockey power. While the last three seasons have seen devastating losses to underdog teams (all three of which eventually moved on to the Stanley Cup Finals, Anaheim in ’03, Calgary in ’04 and Edmonton in ’06), the team is still one of the most recognized in all of hockey. Detroit is branded Hockeytown, and while ratings and attendance have decreased, numbers are still decent.
With two big hockey markets like Buffalo and Detroit, one would imagine that the pairing of the Sabres with the Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals would mean higher than usual ratings for the event (not that it would take much to best the numbers for last year’s ratings unfriendly Carolina-Edmonton battle).
Unfortunately for the NHL, a ratings-friendly match-up like Buffalo/Detroit will more than likely not come to fruition. Currently, the Ottawa Senators lead the Sabres 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals — a series deficit that has only been overcome three times in the history of the four major North American sports leagues.
The Senators may have a large following, but even if games in the Stanley Cup Finals drew the maximum amount of local viewers, it would have no effect on NBC’s ratings. Canada does not factor in U.S. ratings.
Losing Buffalo and replacing it with a market that does not even count in television ratings is a devastating blow for NBC. Even worse would be a series between the Senators and the Anaheim Ducks — a team that was involved in one of the lowest rated Stanley Cup Finals since the league moved back to broadcast television in the mid-1990s. The Ducks lack the built in market of Detroit, and the mainstream recognition. Even the most casual fan knows the Detroit Red Wings, but the Ducks are likely better remembered for the Mighty Ducks movies of the early 1990s.
A Ducks/Senators series might not set an all-time record low rating, simply because the NHL has been cursed with bad match-ups for each of the last two seasons. In 2004, the Calgary Flames played the Tampa Bay Lightning, and in 2006, the Edmonton Oilers played the Carolina Hurricanes. Both series featured a Canadian team versus a small-market U.S. team. Because the Ducks play in the Los Angeles market, ratings might increase if they do in fact advance. Pairing them — or Detroit, for that matter — with Ottawa would make any increase a negligible one, however.
Obviously, this is very specluative, as the Sabres have an opportunity to manage an epic comeback and the Red Wings have a very good chance (with a 4-0 lead after the second period in Game 3 and an opportunity for a 2-1 series lead) to defeat Anaheim. Still, it cannot please the NHL to lose out on a potential ratings success like Buffalo/Detroit when opportunities for good numbers are so scarce.
