First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Celtics/Lakers Game 2 | ABC |
8.3
|
9.2
|
| Last Sunday’s Celtics/Lakers Game 2 drew a 9.2 final rating on ABC, up 12% from Magic/Lakers Game 2 last year (8.2), up 8% from Lakers/Celtics Game 2 in 2008 (8.5), and the highest rating for Game 2 of the NBA Finals since 2004. | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Blackhawks Game 5 | NBC |
3.7
|
3.3
|
| The penultimate game of the Flyers/Blackhawks Stanley Cup Final drew a 3.3 final rating on NBC last Sunday night, up 38% from Penguins/Red Wings Game 5 on a Saturday night last year (2.4), but down 11% from Penguins/Red Wings Game 2 in 2008, which went triple-overtime (3.8). | ||||
| NASCAR | Gilette Fusion ProGlide 500 | TNT |
3.3
|
3.3
|
| Ratings for last Sunday’s Gilette Fusion ProGlide 500 declined from both last year and 2008, marking the lowest rating for the race since 2007. | ||||
| Horse Racing | The Belmont Stakes | ABC |
3.1
|
3.0
|
| ABC drew a 3.0 final rating for the race portion of The Belmont Stakes last Saturday, down 32% from last year (4.4), down 67% from 2008 (9.0), and the lowest rating for the race since at least 1996. | ||||
| Golf (M) | The Memorial, Third Round | CBS |
1.5
|
1.6
|
| The Memorial, Final Round |
3.3
|
2.8
|
||
| Ratings for The Memorial increased 7% on Saturday, but dropped 13% on Sunday. | ||||
| MLB | Rays/Rangers (44%), Marlins/Mets (29%) or Brewers/Cardinals (26%) | FOX |
1.4
|
1.4
|
| FOX drew a 1.4 final rating for regional MLB action last Saturday, down a tick from last year (1.5), and tied as the lowest rating of the season on the network. | ||||
| Tennis | French Open, Women’s Final | NBC |
0.8
|
1.4
|
| French Open, Men’s Final |
1.3
|
1.4
|
||
| The Women’s Final of the French Open had an 8% increase in ratings from last year, while the Men’s Final was down 7%. Both were the second-lowest rated since at least 1997. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Lakers/Celtics Game 5 | 8 PM Sunday | ABC | 11.0 |
| Ratings for the Lakers/Celtics NBA Finals have been the best in six years, topping the previous matchup between the rivals (2008). With the series tied a 2-2 — the first time an NBA Finals has been tied after four games since 2006 — Game 5 should hit a series-high. Last year’s Lakers/Magic Game 5 drew an unusually low 8.0 rating; Celtics/Lakers Game 5 in 2008 drew a 10.1. | ||||
| Soccer | World Cup, England/USA | 2:30 PM Saturday | ABC | 6.3 |
| An argument can be made that ESPN has hyped the 2010 FIFA World Cup more than any other event the network has ever televised — short of the NFL, of course. Look for that hype to pay off with strong numbers for Saturday’s England/USA game on ABC. The only USA match on ABC during the 2006 World Cup drew a 4.4 rating. | ||||
| NASCAR | Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 | 1 PM Sunday | TNT | 3.2 |
| Declining ratings have become the norm for NASCAR over the past two years, but the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 (formerly the Lifelock 400) has not has a decline in ratings since 2007. Will that streak continue this year? Last year’s race drew a 3.3. | ||||
| MLB | Phillies/Red Sox (73%) or White Sox/Cubs (26%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX | 1.6 |
| Ratings are almost guaranteed to drop for this week’s regional MLB coverage on FOX. Last year’s telecast featured Mets/Yankees, one of the bigger television draws of the season — and this year’s telecast has to contend, however briefly, with the USA/England World Cup match. Last year’s aforementioned Mets/Yankees telecast drew a 2.3. | ||||
| MLB | Nationals/Indians | 1 PM Sunday | TBS | 1.1 |
| With apologies to MLB Network, Nationals P Stephen Strasburg makes his national television debut on Sunday, with TBS adding Nationals/Indians to its schedule. Ratings for regular season MLB telecasts on TBS have never been strong, averaging a 0.6 rating last year. However, Strasburg’s presence should put a jolt into those numbers. | ||||
