First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golf (M) | U.S. Open, Third Round | NBC |
4.0
|
3.7
|
| Third round coverage of the U.S. Open drew a 3.7 final rating on NBC last Saturday, up 9% from second and third round coverage last year (3.4) and down 20% from 2008 (4.6). | ||||
| Golf (M) | U.S. Open, Final Round | NBC |
6.1
|
5.8
|
| NBC drew a 5.8 final rating for the final round of the 2010 U.S. Open, up 23% from third and final round coverage last year (4.7) and down 23% from 2008 (7.5). Compared to the last time the U.S. Open ended on a Sunday (2007), the 5.8 rating is down 9% from a 6.4. | ||||
| World Cup | Cameroon/Denmark | ABC |
2.4
|
2.3
|
| ABC drew a 2.3 final rating for the match portion of last Saturday’s Cameroon/Denmark telecast, the network’s lowest rating of the World Cup so far (four matches). | ||||
| World Cup | Brazil/Ivory Coast | ABC |
3.3
|
2.6
|
| The match portion of last Sunday’s Brazil/Ivory Coast telecast on ABC drew a 2.6 final rating. On the comparable day of the 2006 World Cup, ABC drew a 2.3 for France/South Korea in a similiar timesot (includes pre-match coverage). | ||||
| NASCAR | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | TNT |
3.1
|
2.7
|
| For the second straight week, NASCAR on TNT failed to draw a 3.0 U.S. rating. The 2.7 for last week’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 marks a 21% drop from last year (3.4), and stands as the lowest rating for the race since at least 1999. | ||||
| MLB | Dodgers/Red Sox (72%), Twins/Phillies (19%) or White Sox/Nationals (8%) | FOX |
1.8
|
1.5
|
| FOX drew a 1.5 final rating for regional MLB action last Saturday, even with last year’s comparable telecast (1.5), but down 12% from 2008 (1.7). | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | USA/Ghana | 2:30 PM Saturday | ABC | 6.5 |
| Considering all the attention focused on Team USA — especially following their close win against Algeria — one might expect Saturday’s match against Ghana to draw the biggest numbers of the World Cup so far. However, Saturday’s match may be hard pressed to surpass the 7.3 for USA/England on June 12. Even though the stakes were far lower in that game, the matchup had a bit more cachet considering the rivalry between the two countries. That said, expect big numbers. | ||||
| World Cup | Argentina/Mexico | 2:30 PM Sunday | ABC | 2.7 |
| So far, the three non-USA World Cup matches on ABC have drawn less than a 3.0 rating. Do not look for that to change for Sunday’s Argentina/Mexico match — which will probably draw better numbers on Univision than ABC, considering how well Mexico matches have performed for that network. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Dodgers (74%), Cubs/White Sox (16%) or Red Sox/Giants (9%) | 7 PM Saturday | FOX | 3.1 |
| Major League Baseball returns to primetime on FOX with five top ten television markets taking center stage. Most of the country gets Yankees/Dodgers, a battle of the #1 and #2 markets that features the intrigue of Joe Torre facing his former team. The last primetime MLB telecast on FOX (May 22) drew a 2.7 rating opposite strong competition — the NBA Conference Finals and NASCAR’s All-Star Race. | ||||
| NASCAR | Lenox Industrial Tools 301 | 1 PM Sunday | TNT | 3.0 |
| NASCAR ratings have been anything but impressive on TNT, with all three races down from last year — and the last two races failing to draw a 3.0 rating. Ratings for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 have improved each of the past two years, with last year’s race drawing a TNT season high 3.5. Will those positive trends continue this season? | ||||
| Golf (M) | Travelers Championship, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS | 0.9 |
| Travelers Championship, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | 1.4 | ||
| In each of the past two years, the PGA Travelers Championship has drawn a 1.1 rating on Saturday and a 1.6 on Sunday. Will that change this year? | ||||
| Tennis | Wimbledon, early rounds | 12 PM Saturday | NBC | 1.2 |
| 12 PM Sunday | 1.0 | |||
| The John Isner/Nicholas Mahut match gave Wimbledon some much needed juice. But with that epic contest now over — and both players eliminated — there does not appear to be much incentive for casual audiences to tune in. | ||||
| Soccer | Sounders/Union | 5 PM Saturday | ESPN2 | 0.2 |
| With the World Cup in full swing, Major League Soccer resumes after a two-week break. Will the World Cup provide a boost to Saturday’s Sounders/Union match on ESPN2? Or will the biggest event in soccer overshadow one of many regular season MLS matches? | ||||
