Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events on Labor Day Weekend, including college football games on ABC, NBC and ESPN, NASCAR’s Emory Healthcare 500 and the PGA Deutsche Bank Championship.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Steelers/Broncos	FOX	5.0	6.1
FOX earned a 6.1 final rating for last Sunday’s Steelers/Broncos NFL exhibition game, down 6% from Bears/Broncos on NBC during Week 3 of last year’s preseason (6.5). Despite the decline, the game ranks as one of the ten highest rated preseason games of the past six years.
NFL	Cowboys/Texans	CBS	3.5	3.9
Last Saturday’s Cowboys/Texans NFL preseason game drew a 3.9 final rating on CBS, up 44% from Chargers/Falcons last year (2.7).
Golf (M)	The Barclays, Third Round	CBS	1.4	1.7
Golf (M)	The Barclays, Final Round	CBS	1.9	2.1
Ratings for CBS coverage of The Barclays dropped 11% on Saturday and 34% on Sunday.
LLWS	U.S. Championship Game	ABC	1.7	1.8
Last Saturday’s Hawaii/Texas Little League World Series U.S. Championship Game drew a 1.8 final rating on ABC, up 20% from Hawaii/Louisiana in ’08 (1.5). Last year’s game aired in the evening on ESPN2, drawing a 0.7.
LLWS	Championship Game	ABC	2.7	2.0
ABC drew a 2.0 final rating for last Sunday’s Japan/Hawaii Little League World Series Championship Game, down 17% from California/Taiwan last year (2.4), down 5% from Hawaii/Mexico in ’08 (2.1) and the lowest rating for the championship of the LLWS since at least 1997.
MLB	Phillies/Padres (76%) or Twins/Mariners (24%)	FOX	1.8	1.2
Regional MLB action featuring Phillies/Padres drew a mere 1.2 final rating on FOX last Saturday, the network’s lowest MLB rating of the season.
WNBA	Mercury/Silver Stars Game 2	ESPN2	0.20	—
	Storm/Sparks Game 2		0.27	—
	Liberty/Fever Game 2		0.33	—
U.S. HH ratings for individual WNBA Playoff games were not available. ESPN2 averaged a 0.23 rating for its five first round games.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
College Football	Connecticut/Michigan (48%), UCLA/Kansas St. (34%) or Kentucky/Louisville (18%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.1
ABC begins the 2010-11 college football season with regional action on Saturday afternoon. None of the six teams on the schedule are ranked, which could have a negative effect on the ratings. Last year’s comparable telecast featured a battle between then-#13 Georgia and then-#9 Oklahoma State (3.5).
College Football	LSU/North Carolina	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.8
Saturday Night Football returns with #21 LSU against #18 North Carolina. On paper, this matchup does not seem to have as much appeal as last year’s Alabama/Virginia Tech game (4.2 rating). Additionally, while North Carolina’s recent woes have garnered much attention, viewers may not be interested in watching a suspension-decimated team.
College Football	Purdue/Notre Dame	3:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.1
With the debut of a new coach and a fairly recognizable opponent, Saturday’s Notre Dame home opener should have no trouble topping last year’s game against Nevada (1.3).
College Football	Oregon St./TCU	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.0
ESPN’s first Saturday night offering of the college football season features a battle of Top 25 teams — #24 Oregon St. and #6 TCU. Expect solid numbers, although the game will be hard pressed to match last year’s comparable BYU/Oklahoma upset at Cowboys Stadium (2.8).
College Football	Boise St./Virginia Tech	8 PM Monday	ESPN	5.2
Labor Day features a high-profile battle of Top 10 teams, as #3 Boise St. faces #10 Virginia Tech. Though this matchup may lack the name recognition of the Miami/Florida State rivalry — which last year produced a hefty 5.1 U.S. rating on Labor Day — expect very strong numbers nonetheless.
Golf (M)	Deutsche Bank Championship, Third Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.6
Golf (M)	Deutsche Bank Championship, Final Round	2 PM Monday	NBC	2.0
Tiger Woods‘ performance very well may be the biggest predictor of PGA Tour ratings. As evidence, consider the Deutsche Bank Championship. Woods tied for 11th last year, and final round coverage drew a mediocre 2.2. He did not play in 2008, and final round coverage plumbed the depths with a 1.5. But he tied for second in 2007, and the final round drew a strong 3.4. Unless Woods can rise towards the top of the leaderboard, expect this year’s ratings to hold generally steady with last year.
MLB	Reds/Cardinals (44%), Rangers/Twins (37%) or Rockies/Padres (18%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	1.2
The Reds and Cardinals have proven that they can attract big local audiences, and most sports fans may remember their recent violent brawl. Still, with college football providing hefty competition, do not expect very large numbers for Saturday’s telecast on FOX. Last year’s comparable telecast (feat. Red Sox/White Sox) drew a 1.3.
NASCAR	Emory Healthcare 500	7:30 PM Sunday	ESPN	3.5
NASCAR returns from a one-week hiatus with Sunday night’s Emory Healthcare 500. Last year’s race drew a 3.5 U.S. rating, one of the few races to have an increase from the comparable race a year earlier. While ESPN’s NASCAR ratings have been a mixed bag this season, expect similar numbers for this year’s race.
WNBA	Storm/Mercury Game 2	3 PM Sunday	ABC	0.6
For the first time in over a year, the WNBA gets a broadcast television platform. Sunday’s Game 2 of the West Finals pits the team with the best record in the league (Seattle) against the defending champions (Phoenix). Though the ratings will no doubt be tiny, the game would only have to muster a 0.6 to match the highest rated WNBA game of the past two years.