Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 3 of the NFL season, college football action, the second leg of NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup and the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Giants/Colts	NBC	14.8	13.8
NBC earned a 13.8 final rating for last Sunday’s Giants/Colts game, down 9% from Giants/Cowboys in Week 2 last year (15.1), but up 28% from Steelers/Browns in ’08 (10.8).
NFL	Patriots/Jets (or HOU/WSH or JAX/SD)	CBS	15.6	16.2
Sunday’s NFL national window, featuring Patriots/Jets, drew a 16.2 rating on CBS — up 12% from last year (14.5), up 6% from 2008 (15.3) and the highest rating for a September NFL telecast on CBS since at least 1987.
NFL	Dolphins/Vikings (or PIT/TEN, BUF/GB, BAL/CIN or KC/CLE)	CBS	8.3	9.0
The early window on CBS, featuring Dolphins/Vikings, drew a 9.0 final rating — up 6% from last year (8.5) and up 13% from 2008 (8.0).
NFL	Bears/Cowboys (or TB/CAR, AZ/ATL, PHI/DET, SEA/DEN or STL/OAK)	FOX	10.7	10.6
FOX drew a 10.6 final rating for last Sunday’s NFL singleheader, up 10% from last year (9.6) and up 12% from 2008 (9.5).
College Football	#6 Texas/Texas Tech (54%) or Notre Dame/Michigan State (46%)	ABC	3.9	4.7
The latest edition of ABC’s Saturday Night Football drew a 4.7 final rating, up 15% from Texas Tech/Texas last year (4.1) but down 34% from Ohio State/USC in ’08 (7.0).
College Football	#8 Nebraska/Washington (51%), #1 Alabama/Duke (28%) or Arizona State/Wisconsin (21%)	ABC	3.0	2.6
Afternoon college football coverage drew a 2.6 final rating on ABC last Saturday, down 16% from last year (3.1), but up 8% from 2008 (2.4).
College Football	#10 Florida/Tennessee	CBS	3.8	3.3
CBS drew a 3.3 final rating for its Florida/Tennessee college football opener last Saturday, down 23% from the same matchup last year (4.3), but up 14% from Georgia/South Carolina two years ago (2.9).
College Football	Clemson/#16 Auburn	ESPN	2.6	2.5
ESPN drew a 2.5 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s Clemson/Auburn game, even with Georgia/Arkansas last year (2.5) and up 108% from Oklahoma/Washington in ’08 (1.2).
College Football	#12 Arkansas/Georgia	ESPN	2.3	2.9
Last Saturday’s Arkansas/Georgia game drew a 2.9 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 26% from California/Minnesota in the same Noon ET timeslot last year (2.3) and up 71% from California/Maryland in 2008 (1.7).
NASCAR	Sylvania 300	ESPN	2.9	2.3
NASCAR’s Sylvania 300, the first race of the Chase For The Cup, drew a mere 2.3 U.S. rating on ESPN last Sunday — down 28% from last year’s race on ABC (3.2) and the lowest rating ever for a Chase For The Cup race.
MLB	Braves/Mets (42%), Padres/Cardinals (39%) or Tigers/White Sox (18%)	FOX	1.5	1.4
Regional MLB action featuring Braves/Mets drew a 1.4 final rating on FOX last Saturday, even with last year.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Jets/Dolphins	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	11.8
The Jets have attracted significant media attention this year, and their first two games performed well in the ratings — helping ESPN to its best Week 1 Monday night rating ever and CBS to its best September rating since ’87. Expect solid numbers for their Sunday night battle against the 2-0 Dolphins. Last year’s comparable Colts/Cardinals game drew a 10.7.
NFL	Colts/Broncos (or SD/SEA or OAK/AZ)	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	14.0
Sunday’s NFL national window should have no trouble topping last year (10.9), although the numbers may not be as strong as in the first two weeks of the season.
NFL	Titans/Giants (or BUF/NE, PIT/TB, CIN/CAR or CLE/BAL)	1 PM Sunday	CBS	7.9
Sunday’s early window on CBS features high-profile teams such as the Giants, Patriots, Steelers and Bengals. Expect an increase from last year’s comparable telecast, which featured none of those teams (6.8).
NFL	Cowboys/Texans (or DET/MIN, ATL/NO, SF/KC, WSH/STL or PHI/JAX)	1 or 4 PM Sunday	FOX	11.2
For the second straight week, the NFL singleheader on FOX features the Cowboys. This week, ‘America’s team’ takes on another team from a top 10 TV market, the 2-0 Texans. While Sunday’s telecast should earn strong numbers, it will be hard pressed to match last year’s comparable telecast — which drew the season’s largest rating for the singleheader window (11.9).
College Football	UCLA/#7 Texas (66%), Wake Forest/Florida State (20%) or Eastern Michigan/#2 Ohio State (14%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	2.7
Look for a double-digit drop in ratings for Saturday’s early college football window on ABC. Last year’s comparable telecast featured Miami/Virginia Tech and drew a 3.9.
College Football	#24 Oregon State/#3 Boise State	8 PM Saturday	ABC	5.3
Boise State has already played in the highest rated college football game of the season — their Labor Day win over Virginia Tech, which drew a 6.3 rating on ESPN. While the Broncos’ Saturday night battle against Oregon State is unlikely to match that number, it should still be a big draw for ABC. Last year’s comparable Iowa/Penn State game drew a 4.0.
College Football	#1 Alabama/#10 Arkansas	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	4.9
Any battle between top ten teams figures to be a strong draw. Add in the fact that one of those teams is the #1 ranked defending national champion — and one of the highest profile programs in all of college football — and Saturday’s Alabama/Arkansas game should at the very least dominate its timeslot. Last year, the same matchup drew a mere 2.4 rating.
College Football	#16 Stanford/Notre Dame	3:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.7
Notre Dame attracted strong numbers for its two recent losses — to Michigan on NBC (4.5) and to Michigan State on ABC (4.7; regional). With the team now 1-2, can they keep up the ratings momentum? Last year, NBC’s third Notre Dame game (against Washington in early October) drew a 2.9.
College Football	#12 South Carolina/#17 Auburn	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.7
Opposite Oregon State/Boise State, ESPN offers a battle of Top 25 SEC teams as South Carolina takes on Auburn. While the game is not likely to draw blockbuster numbers, expect a solid increase in ratings from last year’s Notre Dame/Purdue matchup (1.8).
College Football	#22 West Virginia/#15 LSU	9 PM Saturday	ESPN2	2.0
ESPN2 offers another Saturday night battle of Top 25s as West Virginia takes on LSU. While this game figures to fall behind the concurrent telecasts on ESPN and ABC, expect the numbers to top last year’s Texas Tech/Houston game (1.4), which aired in a similar timeslot.
NASCAR	AAA 400	1 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.6
After a terrible start, the Chase For The Cup continues with Sunday’s AAA 400 on ESPN. Last year’s race on ABC drew a 3.1 rating — mediocre for sure, but far better than the 2.3 ESPN earned for last week’s Sylvania 300. If ESPN can come anywhere close to last year’s rating, one imagines the network will be satisfied.
MLB	Red Sox/Yankees (67%), Reds/Padres (26%) or Rangers/Athletics (6%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	2.1
With the Red Sox out of the playoff picture and the Yankees a virtual lock to make it, Saturday’s chapter of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry would not seem likely to draw very big numbers. Still, the Red Sox can spoil the Yankees’ plans to win the AL East, giving the game at least some relevance to the playoff race. Last year’s comparable telecast also featured the teams and drew a 2.1 rating.
MLB	Red Sox/Yankees	8 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.9
ESPN features the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry on Sunday. While the numbers are unlikely to be overly impressive, expect the rivalry to put up some better-than-average numbers.
Golf (M)	The Tour Championship, Third Round	12 PM Saturday	NBC	0.9
Golf (M)	The Tour Championship, Final Round	1:30 PM Sunday	NBC	1.5
The FedEx Cup comes to an end with this weekend’s Tour Champonship. With Tiger Woods on the sidelines after having not qualified for the event, the ratings are a lock to decline signfiicantly from last year (2.1 on Saturday and 3.0 on Sunday). The 2008 Tour Championship, which Woods missed due to injury, drew ratings of 1.1 on Saturday and 1.6 on Sunday.