Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 4 of the NFL season, college football action, the Ryder Cup, NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup and the end of the MLB regular season.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Jets/Dolphins	NBC	11.8	11.3
NBC earned an 11.3 final rating for Jets/Dolphins last Sunday night, up 6% from last year and up 15% from 2008 — but the network’s lowest NFL rating of the season.
NFL	Colts/Broncos (or SD/SEA or OAK/AZ)	CBS	14.0	14.0
The Week 3 NFL national window drew a 14.0 final rating on CBS, up 28% from last year and up 17% from ’08 — but, like the Sunday night game, the lowest rated national window of the season.
NFL	Titans/Giants (or BUF/NE, PIT/TB, CIN/CAR or CLE/BAL)	CBS	7.9	8.0
CBS drew an 8.0 final rating for the first half of its NFL doubleheader last Sunday, up 18% from last year, but down 1% from the comparable telecast in ’08.
NFL	Cowboys/Texans (or DET/MIN, ATL/NO, SF/KC, WSH/STL or PHI/JAX)	FOX	11.2	12.8
Sunday’s NFL singleheader on FOX drew a 12.8 final rating, up 8% from last year, and higher than every single singleheader window on either FOX or CBS last season.
College Football	UCLA/Texas (66%), Wake Forest/Florida State (20%) or Eastern Michigan/Ohio State (14%)	ABC	2.7	2.5
Regional college football action on ABC drew a 2.5 final rating last Saturday afternoon, down 36% from last year and the fifth of seven games on ABC this season to draw less than a 3.0 rating.
College Football	Oregon State/Boise State	ABC	5.3	3.4
Oregon State/Boise State drew a 3.4 final rating on ABC last Saturday night, down 15% from last year’s Iowa/Penn State game, but up 26% from Georgia/Arizona State two years ago.
College Football	Alabama/Arkansas	CBS	4.9	5.2
Last week’s Alabama/Arkansas game drew a 5.2 final rating on CBS, the network’s highest afternoon regular season college football rating since 2003.
College Football	Stanford/Notre Dame	NBC	2.7	1.8
The 1.8 final rating for last Saturday’s Stanford/Notre Dame game marks a 38% drop from last year and ranks as the lowest rated Notre Dame telecast on NBC since last Halloween.
College Football	South Carolina/Auburn	ESPN	2.7	2.4
ESPN’s South Carolina/Auburn game drew a 2.4 U.S. rating last Saturday night, up 33% from Notre Dame/Purdue last year, but down 31% from LSU/Auburn two years ago.
College Football	West Virginia/LSU	ESPN2	2.0	1.5
West Virginia/LSU drew a 1.5 U.S. rating on ESPN2 last Saturday night, up 7% from last year and up 15% from 2008.
NASCAR	AAA 400	ESPN	2.6	2.4
NASCAR ratings continue to tumble on ESPN, as last week’s AAA 400 drew a 2.4 U.S. rating — down 23% from last year, down 27% from 2008 and the second-lowest rated Chase For The Cup race ever.
MLB	Red Sox/Yankees (67%), Reds/Padres (26%) or Rangers/Athletics (6%)	FOX	2.1	1.6
Regional MLB action featuring Red Sox/Yankees drew a 1.6 final rating on FOX, down 24% from last year’s comparable telecast featuring the same two teams and the lowest rated game between the rivals on FOX since at least 2001.
MLB	Red Sox/Yankees	ESPN	1.9	1.7
Sunday’s Red Sox/Yankees game drew a 1.7 U.S. rating on ESPN, the lowest rated Sunday night game of the season between the teams. Last year, all three Sunday night Red Sox/Yankees games drew a 3.0.
Golf (M)	The Tour Championship, Third Round	NBC	0.9	0.9
Golf (M)	The Tour Championship, Final Round	NBC	1.5	1.0
Ratings for The Tour Championship were down 67% on Saturday and 57% on Sunday. The 1.0 on Sunday marks the lowest rating for final round coverage of the event since 2006.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Bears/Giants	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	12.1
Sunday Night Football features two of the three largest television markets in the country as the Giants face the undefeated Bears. Expect a solid increase in ratings over both Chargers/Steelers last year (11.0) and Eagles/Bears in 2008 (10.8).
NFL	Washington/Eagles (94%) or Cardinals/Chargers (3%)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	16.7
Donovan McNabb returns to Philadelphia to face resurgent Eagles QB Michael Vick in a game of major storylines. Expect the telecast to surge past last year’s comparable Cowboys/Broncos game (13.1), although the numbers are unlikely to match Brett Favre‘s return to Green Bay in Week 8 last year (17.4)
NFL	Panthers/Saints (52%), Lions/Packers (27%), 49ers/Falcons (9%) or Seahawks/Rams (5%)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	8.1
Can the mainstream appeal of the Saints and Packers offset the fact that three of the four early games on FOX feature 0-3 teams? Last year’s comparable telecast drew a 7.7.
NFL	Ravens/Steelers (or NYJ/BUF, DEN/TEN, CIN/CLE, IND/JAX or HOU/OAK)	1 or 4 PM Sunday	CBS	10.8
The primary game of CBS’ Week 4 singleheader is also the only game on the network’s docket to feature two above .500 teams — the 2-1 Ravens against the 3-0 Steelers. Expect a modest increase from last year’s comparable telecast (10.1).
College Football	#21 Texas/#8 Oklahoma (62%), #11 Wisconsin/#24 Michigan State (24%) or Virginia Tech/#23 NC State (14%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	4.4
The Texas/Oklahoma rivalry has been a strong draw for ABC in recent years, with last year’s matchup between the teams drawing a hefty 5.7 rating in the Noon ET timeslot. While the numbers may not rise that high this year, the game is a virtual lock to give ABC its best afternoon college football rating of the season.
College Football	#9 Stanford/#4 Oregon (53%) or Notre Dame/Boston College (47%)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	4.1
Saturday Night Football features a top ten matchup between Stanford and Oregon in most of the country, with others getting Notre Dame/Boston College. While Stanford/Oregon has the benefit of hype from ESPN’s College Gameday, the game has to face another top ten battle — Florida/Alabama on CBS — head-to-head. Last year’s comparable telecast drew a 4.8.
College Football	Tennessee/#12 LSU	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	3.3
The first game of Saturday’s SEC double-dip on CBS has Tennessee facing LSU. Look for a small decline in ratings compared to last year’s LSU/Georgia tilt (3.5).
College Football	#7 Florida/#1 Alabama	8 PM Saturday	CBS	6.7
Expect Saturday’s SEC Championship Game rematch between Florida and Alabama to top last year’s lone primetime game on CBS (UF/LSU: 6.1) and draw the highest college football rating of the season on any network.
College Football	#22 Penn State/#17 Iowa	8 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.9
Opposite higher-profile games on ABC and CBS, Saturday’s Penn State/Iowa matchup on ESPN is unlikely to put up blockbuster numbers. Last year’s Auburn/Tennessee game drew a 2.1.
Golf (M)	Ryder Cup	8 AM Saturday	NBC	2.2
Golf (M)	Ryder Cup	7 AM Sunday	NBC	2.5
Can the Ryder Cup buck the trend of generally declining ratings for golf telecasts in 2010? The 2008 edition drew a 2.4 rating on Saturday and a 2.8 on Sunday. (Because rain postponed Friday’s action, Sunday’s Ryder Cup coverage on NBC begins at 4 AM Sunday. This prediction is for the originally scheduled 7 AM-1 PM window.)
NASCAR	Price Chopper 400	1 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.5
The Chase For The Cup has been not been much of a draw for ESPN, with the first two races drawing each less than a 2.5 rating. Expect another low rating for this week’s Price Chopper 400. Last year’s race drew a 3.2 on ABC.
MLB	Yankees/Red Sox (47%), Phillies/Braves (33%) or Padres/Giants (19%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	1.5
FOX ends its regular season MLB coverage with a second straight Yankees/Red Sox matchup. On the heels of a 1.6 rating for the network’s most recent telecast featuring the rivals, do not expect very big numbers for this game. Still, the numbers should increase from last year’s 1.2 for coverage featuring Royals/Twins.