Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 5 of the NFL season, the MLB Division Series, college football action, NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup and the NBA preseason.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Bears/Giants	NBC	12.1	12.5
NBC drew a 12.5 final rating for Bears/Giants last Sunday night, up 14% from Week 4 last year and up up 16% from Week 4 in 2008.
NFL	Washington/Eagles (94%) or Cardinals/Chargers (3%)	FOX	16.7	13.8
The Week 4 NFL national window drew a 13.8 final rating on FOX last Sunday, up 5% from last year and up 6% from ’08 — but the lowest rated NFL national window of the season.
NFL	Panthers/Saints (52%), Lions/Packers (27%), 49ers/Falcons (9%) or Seahawks/Rams (5%)	FOX	8.1	8.3
The first game of last week’s NFL doubleheader on FOX drew an 8.3 final rating, up 8% from from last year and up 5% from 2008.
NFL	Ravens/Steelers (or NYJ/BUF, DEN/TEN, CIN/CLE, IND/JAX or HOU/OAK)	CBS	10.8	10.6
The Week 4 NFL singleheader window drew a 10.6 final rating on CBS last Sunday, up 5% from last year and up a whopping 56% from two years ago.
College Football	#21 Texas/#8 Oklahoma (62%), #11 Wisconsin/#24 Michigan STate (24%) or Virginia Tech/#23 NC State (14%)	ABC	4.4	4.4
Regional college football action featuring the Texas/Oklahoma rivalry drew a 4.4 final rating on ABC last Saturday, up 69% from the telecast on the comparable week last year, but down 23% from last year’s game betwen the teams.
College Football	#9 Stanford/#4 Oregon (53%) or Notre Dame/Boston College	ABC	4.1	3.0
Saturday Night Football, featuring Stanford/Oregon in most markets, drew a 3.0 final rating on ABC last week — down 38% from last year and down 17% from 2008.
College Football	Tennessee/#12 LSU	CBS	3.3	2.6
The 2.6 final rating for last week’s Tennessee/LSU game on CBS marks a 26% decline from last year, but a 13% rise from 2008.
College Football	#7 Florida/#1 Alabama	CBS	6.7	5.0
Last Saturday’s primetime Florida/Alabama game drew a 5.0 final rating on CBS, down 18% from the network’s only primetime game last year, but up 32% from the net’s primetime game in ’08.
College Football	#22 Penn State/#17 Iowa	ESPN	1.9	1.3
ESPN drew a 1.3 U.S. rating for Penn State/Iowa last Saturday night, down 38% from last year, down 67% from 2008, and the network’s lowest Saturday night college football rating of the season.
Golf (M)	Ryder Cup	NBC	2.2	1.8
Golf (M)	Ryder Cup	NBC	2.5	2.1
Ratings for the Ryder Cup were down 25% on Saturday and 28% on Sunday.
NASCAR	Price Chopper 400	ESPN	2.5	2.3
ESPN drew a 2.3 U.S. rating for NASCAR’s Price Chopper 400 last Sunday, down 28% form last year, down 34% from 2008, and tied as the lowest rated Chase For The Cup race ever.
MLB	Yankees/Red Sox (47%), Phillies/Braves (33%) or Padres/Giants (19%)	FOX	1.5	2.2
FOX drew a 2.2 final rating for its final MLB telecast of the regular season, up 83% from last year.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Eagles/49ers	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	10.0
With Michael Vick on the sidelines and the 49ers winless, Sunday’s Eagles/49ers game does not figure to be a huge draw for NBC. Last year’s comparable game also featured a winless team (the 0-4 Titans), and drew a 9.7 rating.
NFL	Titans/Cowboys (or SD/OAK)	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	14.3
For the first time this season, the NFL national window features the Cowboys. Expect the presence of arguably the NFL’s biggest draw to give Sunday’s telecast a solid bump in the ratings. Last year’s Week 5 national window, which featured Patriots/Broncos, drew a 12.7.
NFL	Chiefs/Colts (or DEN/BAL or JAX/BUF)	1 PM Sunday	CBS	8.5
The first half of Sunday’s doubleheader on CBS features the undefeated Chiefs taking on Peyton Manning and the Colts. The ratings should rise substantially from last year’s comparable telecast, which drew a mere 6.7 rating — tied as the second-lowest for any NFL telecast on broadcast last season.
NFL	Packers/Washington (36%), NYG/TEX (24%), NO/AZ (11%), CHI/CAR (10%), ATL/CLE (9%), TB/CIN (5%) or STL/DET (4%)	1 or 4 PM Sunday	FOX	10.9
FOX has drawn strong numbers for the singleheader window this season, earning a 10.6 in Week 2 and a 12.8 in Week 3. Expect more of the same for this week’s telecast, which features several of high-profile teams. Last year’s comparable telecast featured Cowboys/Chiefs and drew a 9.5 rating.
MLB	Rays/Rangers Game 3	5 PM Saturday	TBS	2.1
The Rays/Rangers series has not been much of a draw thus far, owing in part to the early afternoon timeslots. With a 5 PM start, Saturday’s Game 3 should hit a series-high — but do not expect the numbers to match last year’s Dodgers/Cardinals Game 3 in a similar timeslot (2.6).
MLB	Twins/Yankees Game 3	8:30 PM Saturday	TBS	3.5
With the Yankees up 2-0 and headed home for Game 3, there would not seem to be much drama left in their series against the Twins. Still, look for Saturday’s game to draw the top Division Series rating of the weekend — that is, unless the teams play a Game 4 on Sunday.
MLB	Giants/Braves Game 3	4:30 PM Sunday	TBS	2.4
Opposite the NFL national window — traditionally the highest rated NFL telecast of a given week — do not expect big numbers for Giants/Braves Game 3. The last time a Division Series game aired opposite the national window (Rays/White Sox Game 3 in 2008), the game drew a 2.2 rating.
College Football	#17 Michigan State/#18 Michigan (63%), #11 Arkansas/Texas A&M (23%) or Clemson/North Carolina (14%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.0
With #1 Alabama playing on CBS at the same time, do not expect huge numbers for Saturday afternoon’s college football window on ABC. Last year’s comparable telecast featured Wisconsin/Ohio State and drew a 4.2.
College Football	#23 Florida State/#13 Miami (79%) or USC/#16 Stanford (21%)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	4.5
The Florida State/Miami rivalry is still a big draw, even though neither team has been a championship contender in several years. Last year’s Labor Day game between the rivals drew a 5.1 rating on ESPN, one of the network’s best college football ratings ever. Look for this year’s game to put up similarly strong numbers on ABC. Last year’s Michigan/Iowa game set the bar low with a 2.8.
College Football	#1 Alabama/#19 South Carolina	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	4.7
In each of the last two weeks, CBS has drawn at least a 5.0 rating for college football coverage featuring #1 Alabama. Do not expect this week’s game to make it three in a row, although the numbers should easily surpass last year’s comparable Alabama/Mississippi game (3.1).
College Football	Pittsburgh/Notre Dame	3:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.0
Expect Saturday’s Pittsburgh/Notre Dame game to have a fairly sizable drop in ratings on NBC. Last year’s comparable matchup — USC/Notre Dame — drew a 4.1.
College Football	#12 LSU/#14 Florida	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	3.3
Last year’s Florida/LSU game was a battle of top five teams, featured the highest profile player in college football (Tim Tebow), and had a primetime broadcast TV platform on CBS. With that in mind, do not expect this year’s game to come anywhere close in the ratings department (last year’s game drew a 6.1). Still, expect solid numbers for ESPN.
NASCAR	Pepsi Max 400	3 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.7
The Chase For The Cup has been a bit of a ratings disaster thus far, with the first three races drawing three of the lowest NASCAR ratings in recent memory. This week’s race has a later timeslot than the first three (3 PM ET, as opposed to 1 PM), which could result in slighly better numbers (i.e., high 2.0 range as opposed to low 2.0 range). Last year’s race drew a 3.6 on ABC.
NBA	Mavericks/Suns	9:30 PM Saturday	TNT	0.6
The NBA returns to TNT with Saturday’s preseason outdoor game between the Mavericks and Suns. Opposite the Yankees on TBS and college football on various networks, do not expect very big numbers.