Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 6 of the NFL season, the MLB League Championship Series, college football action, and NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
For regional telecasts, featured game listed in bold.
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Eagles/49ers | NBC |
10.0
|
10.3
|
| The latest edition of Sunday Night Football drew a 10.3 final rating on NBC, up 6% from last year, up 17% from 2008, but the lowest rating of the season for the NFL on NBC. | ||||
| NFL | Titans/Cowboys or SD/OAK | CBS |
14.3
|
12.7
|
| Last Sunday’s NFL national window drew a 12.7 final rating on CBS, flat with last year and up 1% from 2008. Like Sunday Night Football, the national window hit a season low. | ||||
| NFL | Chiefs/Colts, DEN/BAL or JAX/BUF | CBS |
8.5
|
6.5
|
| Speaking of season lows, the first game of last Sunday’s NFL doubleheader on CBS drew a 6.5 final rating — the lowest of the season for any NFL telecast on any network. | ||||
| NFL | Packers/Washington (36%), NYG/TEX (24%), NO/AZ (11%), CHI/CAR (10%), ATL/CLE (9%), TB/CIN (5%) or STL/DET (4%) | FOX |
10.9
|
11.9
|
| FOX drew an 11.9 final rating for the Week 5 NFL singleheader window, up 22% from last year. | ||||
| MLB | Rays/Rangers Game 3 | TBS |
2.1
|
2.2
|
| The first of three consecutive home playoff losses for the Rangers drew a 2.2 U.S. rating last Saturday, down 15% from last year and down 24% from 2008. | ||||
| MLB | Twins/Yankees Game 3 | TBS |
3.5
|
3.0
|
| The Yankees’ series-clinching win over the Twins drew a 3.0 U.S. rating on TBS last Saturday night, down 6% from 2008 (there was no game in the comparable timeslot last year), and the lowest rated Yankee playoff game in four years. | ||||
| MLB | Giants/Braves Game 3 | TBS |
2.4
|
2.6
|
| TBS drew a 2.6 U.S. rating for the penultimate game of the Giants/Braves series, up 18% from 2008 (there was no game in the comparable timeslot last year). | ||||
| College Football | #17 Michigan State/#18 Michigan (63%), #11 Arkansas/Texas A&M (23%) or Clemson/North Carolina (14%) | ABC |
3.0
|
3.5
|
| Regional college football action drew a 3.5 final rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, down 14% from last year, but the second-highest afternoon rating of the season for college football on ABC. | ||||
| College Football | #23 FSU/#13 Miami (79%) or USC/#16 Stanford (21%) | ABC |
4.5
|
3.1
|
| ABC drew a 3.1 final rating for last week’s edition of Saturday Night Football, up 11% from the telecast on the comparable date last year, but behind every other Saturday night telecast last season. | ||||
| College Football | #1 Alabama/#19 South Carolina | CBS |
4.7
|
4.8
|
| South Carolina’s win over Alabama drew a 4.8 final rating on CBS last Saturday, up 55% from last year, and the fourth-highest rated college football game of the season. | ||||
| College Football | Pittsburgh/Notre Dame | NBC |
2.0
|
1.3
|
| The 1.3 final rating for last week’s Pittsburgh/Notre Dame game is tied as the lowest for a Notre Dame telecast on NBC since late 2007. | ||||
| College Football | #12 LSU/#14 Florida | ESPN |
3.3
|
3.1
|
| ESPN drew a 3.1 U.S. rating for LSU’s win over Florida last Saturday night, the network’s top college football telecast in over a month. | ||||
| NASCAR | Pepsi Max 400 | ESPN |
2.7
|
2.5
|
| Last Sunday’s NASCAR Pepsi Max 400 drew a 2.5 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 31% from last year. While the 2.5 rating is the highest of this year’s Chase For The Cup, it also ranks as the fourth-lowest for a Chase race since the format began in 2004. | ||||
| NBA | Mavericks/Suns | TNT |
0.6
|
0.4
|
| TNT drew a 0.4 U.S. rating for last Saturday night’s NBA preseason outdoor game. Ratings for previous outdoor games were unavailable. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
For regional telecasts, featured game listed in bold.
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Colts/Washington | 8:20 PM Sunday | NBC |
12.8
|
| Peyton Manning faces Donovan McNabb in a battle of big name quarterbacks Sunday night. While the NLCS on FOX may take some viewers away, expect strong numbers for Sunday Night Football. Last year’s comparable Falcons/Bears telecast drew a 10.9. | ||||
| NFL | Cowboys/Vikings | 4:15 PM Sunday | FOX |
16.0
|
| They may both be 1-3, but the Cowboys and Vikings are still two of the highest profile teams in the NFL. With Brett Favre embroiled in controversy and both teams in desperate need of a win, expect fairly massive numbers for Sunday’s playoff rematch. Last year’s comparable window featured Titans/Patriots and drew a 14.6 rating. | ||||
| NFL | Falcons/Eagles (52%), DET/NYG (16%), SEA/CHI (16%) or NO/TB (7%) | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
9.4
|
| The early window on FOX includes the NFC’s only 4-1 teams — the Falcons and Bears — as well as ratings friendly teams such as the Saints, Giants and Eagles. Last year’s comparable window featured Ravens/Vikings (9.3). | ||||
| NFL | Ravens/Patriots, MIA/GB, CLE/PIT, KC/HOU, SD/STL, NYJ/DEN or OAK/SF | 1 or 4 PM Sunday | CBS |
11.6
|
| The Week 6 singleheader on CBS features the Ravens facing the Patriots, in another playoff rematch. The network also has Ben Roethlisberger‘s return from suspension, a battle of division leaders between the Texans and Chiefs, and marquee teams such as the Jets and Packers. Last year’s comparable window featured Giants/Saints (11.0). | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Rangers Game 2 | 4 PM Saturday | TBS |
3.9
|
| With an afternoon timeslot and competition from college football, Game 2 of the Yankees/Rangers ALCS is unlikely to put up particularly huge numbers. That said, expect the game to have a big increase from last year’s NLCS Game 2 on TBS (2.9) — owing to the presence of the Yankees, and the fact that the game will air on a Saturday afternoon, as opposed to last year’s Friday afternoon slot. | ||||
| MLB | Giants/Phillies Game 1 | 8 PM Saturday | FOX |
4.7
|
| The NLCS opens with a battle of star pitchers — the Phillies’ Roy Halladay and the Giants’ Tim Lincecum. In their last two NLCS appearances, the Phillies have not been much of a draw, even against a big market opponent in the Dodgers. Do not expect anything different for this year’s series as a whole, though Game 1’s pitching matchup should attract good numbers. Last year’s ALCS Game 1 on FOX aired on a Friday night and drew a 5.2 rating. | ||||
| MLB | Giants/Phillies Game 2 | 8 PM Sunday | FOX |
6.1
|
| With a lead-in from Cowboys/Vikings, Sunday’s NLCS Game 2 should put up strong numbers on FOX. Last year’s Angels/Yankees Game 2 (5.8) aired on a Saturday night. | ||||
| College Football | Texas/#5 Nebraska (79%) or #15 Iowa/Michigan (21%) | 3:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.6
|
| Saturday’s Big 12 battle between Texas and Nebraska should give ABC a solid increase in ratings from last year’s comparable telecast, which featured Minnesota against Penn State (3.2). After finishing in the 2.0 range during the first four weeks of the season, ABC’s afternoon college football telecasts have topped 3.0 two weeks in a row. | ||||
| College Football | #12 Arkansas/#7 Auburn | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS |
4.2
|
| CBS once again features a matchup of highly ranked SEC teams, as Arkansas faces Auburn. Three of the past four college football telecasts on CBS have drawn at least a 4.5 rating. Will Saturday’s matchup make it four out of five? Last year’s Arkansas/Florida game drew a 4.3. | ||||
| College Football | Western Michigan/Notre Dame | 2:30 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.0
|
| Last week’s Notre Dame telecast on NBC tied a three-year ratings low. With Notre Dame facing a fairly anonymous opponent and the telecast airing opposite college football and baseball coverage on other networks, expect the numbers to dip even lower this week. NBC’s fifth Notre Dame game last year drew a 2.2 rating. | ||||
| College Football | #1 Ohio State/#18 Wisconsin | 7 PM Saturday | ESPN |
3.0
|
| The presence of College Gameday and the ESPN/ABC A-team of Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit gives Saturday’s Ohio State/Wisconsin matchup a ‘game of the week’ feel. Whether that will be reflected in the ratings will be another story. Last year’s South Carolina/Alabama game drew a 2.8 U.S. rating. | ||||
| College Football | Mississippi/#8 Alabama | 9 PM Saturday | ESPN2 |
1.8
|
| The former #1 ranked team in the nation gets primetime exposure Saturday night, albeit on ESPN2. In each of the past three weeks, ESPN2’s Saturday night games have drawn ratings of 1.2 (AUB/UK last week), 1.2 (reverse mirror coverage on October 2) and 1.5 (WVU/LSU on September 25). Expect higher numbers for this week’s game. | ||||
| College Football | BYU/#4 TCU | 4 PM Saturday | Versus |
0.6
|
| The #4 ranked team in the country hosts BYU on Versus Saturday afternoon. While the game should lag well behind Saturday’s college football telecasts on ESPN, ABC, CBS and NBC, expect fairly decent numbers (at least for Versus) nonetheless. | ||||
| NASCAR | Bank of America 500 | 7:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.1
|
| For the final time this season, NASCAR gets broadcast television exposure — and boy is it needed. The first four Chase For The Cup races on ESPN have drawn abysmal (for NASCAR) numbers, well below what ABC drew over the previous three years. With very little in the way of ratings momentum, Saturday’s race is likely to decline from last year (3.5). That said, the race should easily draw the highest rating of this year’s Chase. | ||||
