First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA Finals on ABC, Cleveland at San Antonio Game 2. Prediction: 5.9. Final rating: 5.6. The game was 58-33 at halftime, meaning any curious fans switching over from The Sopranos likely found other forms of entertainment. The 5.6 rating was the second-lowest rating since at least 1981 for an NBA Finals game.
- NBA Finals on ABC, San Antonio at Cleveland Game 4. Prediction: 4.9. Final rating: 6.5. The NBA can take heart knowing that no matter how bad a series is, no matter how small the markets are, and no matter how poorly played and uncompetitive the games are, the league can still draw a 6 rating in prime-time. Certainly nothing to be proud of, but considering how bad the numbers could have been, nothing to panic over either.
- The Belmont Stakes on ABC. Prediction: 2.5. Final rating: 2.9. Speaking of sporting events setting record lows, the final leg of the Triple Crown could not even draw a 3.0 rating last Saturday. Since moving from NBC to ABC, ratings for The Belmont have fallen significantly — even from 2005 levels, when the race was on NBC and there was no possibility of a Triple Crown. Perhaps keeping the three races on one network would make the ratings decline less significant.
- French Open on NBC, Federer v. Nadal. Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 1.8. For the second straight year, Rafael Nadal defeats Roger Federer in four sets to win the French Open title. And for the second straight year, the match draws a 1.8 rating.
- NASCAR on TNT, Pocono 500. Prediction: 3.2. Final rating: 3.0. A decent rating for NASCAR on cable.
This week’s predictions:
- U.S. Open on NBC, 1:00 PM Saturday and Sunday. Golf, like the NBA and horse racing, is fully dependent on its participants. Last year, U.S. Open ratings fell significantly after Tiger Woods failed to make the cut; the rating for third round play was a mere 3.2. With Phil Mickleson having missed the cut this year, expect any ratings decline to be moderate at worst. The U.S. Open does not typically draw fantastic numbers; final round coverage has not drawn a rating higher than 5.7 since 2002. Predictions: 3.7 and 5.8.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday. Last week, FOX drew its first rating of the season below 2.0. This week, with the polarizing Barry Bonds playing the Red Sox in Fenway Park, expect the numbers to bounce back. Prediction: 2.7.
- Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN, Yankees at Mets, 8:00 PM Sunday. The New York Yankees are an incredible television draw. Expect their tilt against the rival Mets to draw another huge rating for ESPN. Prediction: 2.6.
- NASCAR on TNT, Citizens Bank 400, 2:00 PM Sunday. Coming off of a decent performance last week, TNT should draw another solid rating for NASCAR coverage this Sunday. With the U.S. Open airing opposite the race, however, expect that solid rating to pale in comparison to the numbers from last week. Prediction: 2.7.
