Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 10 of the NFL season, college football action, the final race of NASCAR’s Chase For the Cup, and the 2010 MLS Cup.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Patriots/Steelers | NBC |
13.5
|
12.8
|
| NBC earned a 12.8 final rating for last Sunday’s Patriots/Steelers clash, down 7% from last year, but up 16% from 2008. | ||||
| NFL | Cowboys/Giants (83%), STL/SF (9%) or SEA/AZ (6%) | FOX |
14.3
|
15.5
|
| The Week 10 NFL national window drew a 15.5 rating on FOX last Sunday afternoon, down 3% from last year, up 14% from 2008, and the sixth-highest NFL rating of the season. | ||||
| NFL | Vikings/Bears (84%), CAR/TB (5%) or DET/BUF (4%) | FOX |
9.4
|
8.2
|
| Last week’s early window on FOX drew an 8.2 final rating, up 14% from last year and up 5% from 2008. | ||||
| NFL | NYJ/CLE, CIN/IND, TEN/MIA, HOU/JAX or KC/DEN | CBS |
9.0
|
9.6
|
| The 9.6 final rating for last Sunday’s NFL singleheader on CBS marks a 2% decline from last year, but a 10% rise from 2008. | ||||
| College Football | Penn State/#9 Ohio State (69%), TTU/#16 Oklahoma (16%), or #20 VT/UNC | ABC |
3.8
|
4.0
|
| Regional college football action earned a 4.0 final rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, down 7% from last year, down 9% from 2008, but the net’s second-highest afternoon college football rating of the season. | ||||
| College Football | #10 Oklahoma State/Texas (61%), Clemson/Florida State (20%) or USC/Arizona (19%) | ABC |
3.5
|
2.8
|
| The latest edition of ABC’s Saturday Night Football drew a 2.8 final rating last week, down 22% from last year and down 45% from two years ago. | ||||
| College Football | Mississippi/Tennessee | CBS |
2.1
|
1.8
|
| The first game of last week’s college football doubleheader on CBS drew a 1.8 final rating, down 18% from last year’s matchup between the same teams. | ||||
| College Football | Georgia/#2 Auburn | CBS |
3.6
|
5.0
|
| CBS drew a 5.0 final rating for Auburn’s win over Georgia last Saturday, up 22% from last year, down 2% from ’08, and tied as the third-highest college football rating of the season on any network. | ||||
| College Football | #14 Utah/Notre Dame | NBC |
1.7
|
1.5
|
| Notre Dame’s upset win over Utah drew a 1.5 final rating on NBC last week, down 21% from the seventh Notre Dame telecast last year, and down 25% from the seventh telecast in ’07. NBC aired six games in 2008. | ||||
| College Football | #13 Iowa/Northwestern | ESPN |
2.0
|
1.6
|
| ESPN’s 1.6 U.S. rating for Iowa/Northwestern last Saturday marked a 45% drop from Michigan/Illinois in the same timeslot one week earlier. | ||||
| College Football | #23 South Carolina/#22 Florida | ESPN |
2.4
|
2.5
|
| Last week’s South Carolina/Florida game put up 2.5 U.S. rating on ESPN up 14% from last year and up 79% from ’08. | ||||
| College Football | #19 Mississippi State/#12 Alabama | ESPN2 |
1.5
|
1.2
|
| Over on ESPN2, Mississippi State/Alabama earned a 1.2 U.S. rating, up 33% from Texas/Kansas State a week earlier (0.9). | ||||
| College Football | San Diego State/#3 TCU | Versus |
0.4
|
0.2
|
| #1 Oregon/California |
0.6
|
1.1
|
||
| Versus’ Oregon/California game ranks as the network’s most-viewed college football telecast ever. | ||||
| NASCAR | Kobalt Tools 500 | ESPN |
2.6
|
2.5
|
| Last week’s NASCAR Kobalt Tools 500 earned a 2.5 U.S. rating, down 24% from last year, down 31% from ’08, and the lowest rated edition of the race since at least 2000. | ||||
| MLS | FC Dallas/Galaxy | ESPN2 |
0.4
|
—
|
| U.S. HH ratings were not available for last week’s FC Dallas/Galaxy MLS Western Conference Final. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Giants/Eagles | 8:20 PM Sunday | NBC |
12.9
|
| Sunday Night Football features a battle at the top of the NFC East, between two big market teams (the #1 market Giants and #4 market Eagles) and two high profile quarterbacks (Eli Manning and Michael Vick). Expect strong numbers, and a big increase from last year’s week 11 Eagles/Bears game (10.6). | ||||
| NFL | Colts/Patriots | 4:15 PM Sunday | CBS |
15.1
|
| The latest chapter of the Colts/Patriots rivalry will be the only game of Sunday’s NFL national window on CBS. With the exception of 2008, when their only meeting drew a 10.6 rating, the rivalry has produced big numbers in recent years — 13.7 last year (NBC), 20.1 in 2007 (CBS), and 14.0 in 2006 (NBC). With the Patriots tied atop the AFC East and the Colts leading the AFC South outright, expect another big number this year. Last year’s Week 11 national window featured Jets/Patriots and drew a 12.9. | ||||
| NFL | Texans/Jets, OAK/PIT, BAL/CAR, BUF/CIN or CLE/JAX | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
8.2
|
| Three of the five games in Sunday’s early window on CBS feature at least one team who is tied atop their division. Look for a solid increase in ratings from last year’s comparable window, which drew fairly low numbers despite featuring the then-undefeated Colts (7.6). | ||||
| NFL | Packers/Vikings (31%), SEA/NO (19%), DET/DAL (14%), WSH/TEN (14%), TB/SF (9%), AZ/KC (6%) or ATL/STL (6%) | 1 or 4 PM Sunday | FOX |
13.0
|
| Brett Favre faces his former team once again as the 3-6 Vikings face the 6-3 Packers. Favre’s three previous games against the Packers have been big draws. The first (Week 4 last year) was the highest rated program ever on ESPN, the second (Week 8 last year) was the highest rated NFL telecast on any network in three years, and the third (Week 7 this year) was the second-highest rated NFL telecast on NBC since the net resumed airing coverage in ’06. Expect a big jump from last year’s comparable telecast (10.8). | ||||
| College Football | #9 Ohio State/#20 Iowa | 3:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.5
|
| ABC features only one game during its afternoon college football window Saturday, as Iowa hosts Ohio State in a battle of Top 25 Big Ten teams. Expect solid numbers, and a modest rise from last year’s comparable window (3.0). | ||||
| College Football | #8 Nebraska/#19 Texas A&M (53%), #25 FSU/Maryland (28%) or USC/Oregon State (19%) | 8 PM Saturday | ABC |
2.9
|
| Saturday Night Football has not been a particularly big draw over the past two weeks, failing to draw a 3.0 rating both times. Look for more of the same this week. Last year’s telecast drew a 3.8. | ||||
| College Football | Mississippi/#5 LSU | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS |
3.3
|
| Do not expect blockbuster numbers for Saturday’s matchup between BCS #5 LSU and Mississippi, but the numbers should rise above last year’s matchup between the same two teams (2.9). | ||||
| College Football | Army/Notre Dame | 7 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.5
|
| Notre Dame heads into primetime on NBC, as the Irish host Army at the new Yankee Stadium. The matchup may not even Saturday’s highest-profile college football game at a baseball field, as Northwestern/Illinois at Wrigley Field has generated the lion’s share of attention. Still, look for a slight increase in ratings from last year’s primetime Notre Dame game on NBC, a neutral site matchup against Washington State at San Antonio’s Alamodome (1.4). | ||||
| College Football | Michigan/#7 Wisconsin | 12 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.4
|
| The last time Michigan played at Noon on ESPN, their game earned one of the network’s largest audiences for the timeslot. While the numbers may not rise as high for this week’s game against Wisconsin, expect solid numbers nonetheless. | ||||
| College Football | #16 Virginia Tech/#24 Miami | 3:30 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.6
|
| Look for decent, if unspectacular, numbers for Saturday afternoon’s battle of Top 25 ACC rivals. | ||||
| College Football | #13 Arkansas/#21 Mississippi State | 7 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.8
|
| Do not expect massive numbers for Saturday’s battle between SEC teams Arkansas and Mississippi State. | ||||
| NASCAR | Ford 400 | 1 PM Sunday | ESPN |
3.0
|
| The 2010 NASCAR season ends with Sunday’s Ford 400. The Chase For The Cup has been more competitive than ever this year, but that has not stopped ratings from dropping double-digits nearly every week. So far this season, 25 of the 30 NASCAR races that can be compared to last year have had declines in ratings, including every single Chase race. Expect more of the same for the season finale. Last year’s Ford 400 drew a 3.6 rating, tied as the lowest in ten years. | ||||
| MLS | Rapids/FC Dallas | 8:30 PM Sunday | ESPN |
0.6
|
| The 2010 MLS Cup takes place on ESPN Sunday night, as the Rapids face FC Dallas in Toronto. Though last year’s game was up from the previous year — the first increase for the MLS Cup since 2004 — it still drew a mere 0.7 U.S. rating. Expect similarly low numbers this year. The MLS Cup has not drawn at least 1% of U.S. TV households since 2001, and has fallen below that threshold in 10 of the last 11 years. | ||||
