Ratings predictions for sporting events over the weekend, including the NFL Wild Card round, college football bowls, and college basketball action.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Buccaneers/Saints (70%), CAR/ATL (11%) or MIN/DET (7%) | FOX |
10.2
|
9.6
|
| FOX earned a 9.6 final rating for the first game of its Week 17 doubleheader last Sunday, even with last year. | ||||
| NFL | Bears/Packers (56%), NYG/WSH (18%), DAL/PHI (14%) or ARI/SF (7%) | FOX |
15.2
|
14.7
|
| The Week 17 NFL national window on FOX, featuring Bears/Packers, earned a 14.7 final rating last Sunday, down 3% from last year. | ||||
| NFL | Steelers/Browns, CIN/BAL, BUF/NYJ, MIA/NE or OAK/KC | CBS |
8.3
|
7.3
|
| Over on CBS, the first game of the net’s Week 17 doubleheader earned a 7.3 final rating, down 5% from the comparable Week 17 window a year ago. | ||||
| NFL | Titans/Colts, JAX/HOU or SD/DEN | CBS |
10.5
|
9.7
|
| CBS’ Week 17 national window scored a 9.7 final rating, down 13% from last year, and the lowest rating of the season for the national window on any network. | ||||
| NFL | Rams/Seahawks | NBC |
11.3
|
11.3
|
| The Seahawks’ playoff-clinching win over the Rams earned an 11.3 final rating on NBC last Sunday night, up 13% from last year, up 26% from 2008, but the third-lowest rated NFL telecast of the season on NBC. | ||||
| College Football | Sun Bowl (ND/MIA) | CBS |
4.0
|
3.0
|
| CBS drew a 3.0 final rating for the Notre Dame/Miami Sun Bowl on New Year’s Eve, down 9% from last year, up 36% from 2008, and the second-highest rating for the bowl since 2004. | ||||
| College Football | Liberty Bowl (UGA/#25 UCF) | ESPN |
2.7
|
3.0
|
| ESPN earned a 3.0 final rating for the Liberty Bowl on New Year’s Eve, down 21% from last year, but up 30% from 2008. | ||||
| College Football | Chick-Fil-A Bowl (#20 SC/#23 FSU) | ESPN |
4.1
|
4.3
|
| The Florida State/South Carolina Chick-Fil-A Bowl drew a 4.3 final rating on ESPN New Year’s Eve, up 2% from last year, and up 27% from two years ago. | ||||
| College Football | Capital One Bowl (#16 ALA/#9 MSU) | ESPN |
5.5
|
3.7
|
| The New Year’s Day Capital One Bowl earned a 3.7 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 46% from last year, down 42% from 2008, and the lowest rated edition of the game since at least 1995. Prior to this year, the game aired on broadcast network ABC. | ||||
| College Football | Outback Bowl (UF/PSU) | ABC |
5.0
|
7.1
|
| ABC drew a 7.1 final rating for the Outback Bowl New Year’s Day, up 103% from last year, up 173% from 2008, and the highest rated non-BCS bowl in three years. Previously, the Outback Bowl aired on cable network ESPN. | ||||
| College Football | Rose Bowl (#5 WISC/#3 TCU) | ESPN |
9.6
|
11.3
|
| The TCU/Wisconsin Rose Bowl, the first BCS bowl ever on cable TV, earned an 11.3 U.S. rating on ESPN January 1, down 14% from last year, down 3% from 2008, and tied as the third-lowest rated Rose Bowl since 1986. | ||||
| College Football | Fiesta Bowl (CONN/#7 OK) | ESPN |
6.3
|
6.2
|
| ESPN drew a 6.2 final rating for Oklahoma’s win over Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl, down 24% from last year, down 40% from 2008, and the second-lowest rated BCS bowl ever. | ||||
| College Basketball | #11 Kentucky/#22 Louisville | CBS |
1.7
|
1.7
|
| The 1.7 final rating for CBS’ Kentucky/Louisville college basketball on New Year’s Eve marks an 11% decline from the same matchup on January 2 last season. | ||||
| NHL | Capitals/Penguins (from Heinz Field) | NBC |
2.6
|
2.3
|
| The Capitals/Penguins NHL Winter Classic, which moved from 1 PM to 8 PM due to inclement weather, drew a 2.3 final rating on NBC New Year’s Day, up 10% from last year, but down 8% from 2009. The game ranks as the second-highest rated regular season NHL telecast since 1996. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NFL
|
Saints/Seahawks | 4:30 PM Saturday | NBC |
16.0
|
| The 2011 NFL postseason gets underway Saturday with the New Orleans facing Seattle. Expect strong numbers for Saturday’s matchup — partly due to the general trend towards higher NFL ratings, the presence of the defending champion Saints, the novelty of hte Seahawks’ sub-.500 playoff record, and the matchup’s overall David v. Goliath appeal. Last year’s Jets/Bengals game earned a 15.2. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Jets/Colts | 8 PM Saturday | NBC |
18.0
|
|
Saturday’s Jets/Colts AFC Wild Card game has all the makings for a ratings blockbuster — the big market, brash Jets face one of the league’s biggest individual stars, the Colts’ Peyton Manning, in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. Even if the ratings are strong, the game will have a tough time matching last year’s 18.2 for Eagles/Cowboys.
|
||||
|
NFL
|
Ravens/Chiefs | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
15.4
|
|
CBS gets arguably the most low-key of the four Wild Card games, as the Ravens travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. Do not expect the ratings to match last year’s comparable matchup between the Ravens and the high-profile Patriots (16.9), though the numbers should top Ravens/Dolphins two years ago (15.0).
|
||||
|
NFL
|
Packers/Eagles | 4:30 PM Sunday | FOX |
20.6
|
|
The late Sunday afternoon Wild Card game is usually the highest rated of the bunch. That was the case last year, when the Packers’ overtime loss to the Cardinals drew a 19.6 rating. This year’s game pits those same Packers against the big-market Eagles, and quarterback Michael Vick, whose resurgence has been one of the bigger stories in the NFL this season.. Expect Sunday’s matchup to not only top last year, but become the highest rated Wild Card game since 1999 (GB/SF: 23.6).
|
||||
|
College Football
|
BBVA Compass Bowl (PIT/UK) | 12 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.5
|
|
The college football bowl season continues with Saturday’s BBVA Compass Bowl between Pittsburgh and Kentucky. Last year’s game between Connecticut and South Carolina earned a 1.6.
|
||||
|
College Football
|
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (#15 NEV/BC) | 9 PM Sunday | ESPN |
2.3
|
|
Formerly the Emerald Bowl, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl has been a strong draw in recent years. Last year’s USC/Boston College game drew a 4.6 rating, ranking as one of the most-viewed bowl games ever on ESPN, while the 2008 Miami/Cal matchup drew a similarly strong 4.0. This year’s game has a Sunday night timeslot all to itself, but also features less prominent teams. Additionally, with the game airing over a week after New Year’s Day, one wonders whether viewers will still have an appetite for non-BCS bowls.
|
||||
|
High School Football
|
All-American Bowl | 1 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.4
|
|
NBC offers viewers the High School All-American Bowl prior to its Wild Card Saturday slate. Last year’s game drew a 1.4 final rating, down from both 2009 (1.5) and 2008 (1.7).
|
||||
|
College Basketball (W)
|
#2 Connecticut/#12 Notre Dame | 2 PM Saturday | CBS |
0.6
|
|
Not only has the Huskies’ 90-game winning streak come to an end, but the team is not even ranked #1 in the nation. Still, perhaps some residual attention from their record run will help boost the numbers for their game against Notre Dame. Last year’s comparable Ohio State/Michigan State women’s game, which aired one week later in the year, earned a 0.5.
|
||||
|
College Basketball (W)
|
#21 Ohio State/#22 Iowa | 4 PM Saturday | CBS |
0.4
|
|
Do not expect big ratings for this women’s college basketball game at the bottom of the top 25. Last year’s North Carolina/Connecticut game drew a 0.5.
|
||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#3 Kansas/Michigan | 4:30 PM Sunday | CBS |
2.2
|
| An NFL lead-in should result in big numbers for Sunday’s Kansas/Michigan game. Last year, CBS aired a Kansas/Tennessee game following an NFL Divisional Round telecast, and earned a season-high 2.5 rating. | ||||
