Predicting ALCS Game 7 and NFL Week 7 ratings. Also on tap, a Super Bowl rematch, Michigan-Penn State, USC-Notre Dame, and auto racing.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
ALCS: Yankees-Astros Game 7 (8 PM Sat FS1)
For the first time in five years, there will be a Game 7 in the League Championship Series. The Yankees are playing their third winner-take-all game of the postseason, with the first two earning ratings of 4.2 (against Minnesota in the Wild Card round) and 4.4 (Game 5 of the Division Series against Cleveland). With a World Series berth on the line, it stands to reason that Saturday’s game will be even higher, even with tough college football competition on the broadcast networks. Expect ratings to comfortably surpass the last LCS Game 7, Cardinals-Giants opposite Monday Night Football and a presidential debate back in 2012 (4.9). However, it will likely fall short of the last ALCS Game 7, Red Sox-Rays on TBS in 2008 (7.9). Prediction: 5.6.
NFL: Falcons-Patriots (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
After three straight weeks of mediocre matchups, each of which had a single-digit rating, Sunday Night Football gets back on track with a Super Bowl rematch this week. Patriots-Falcons may have been the lowest rated Super Bowl in seven years, but it was one of the most memorable in the history of the game. Atlanta’s historic collapse still resonates months later. With the Patriots looking vulnerable all season despite a 4-2 record, a close game seems likely. Anything is possible with NFL ratings nowadays, but it seems likely that Sunday’s game should cruise past last year’s 10.2 for Seahawks-Cardinals. Prediction: 12.0.
NFL: Mostly Bengals-Steelers (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
Bengals-Steelers was not the first choice for this week’s NFL national window, but with the originally scheduled games featuring the 2-4 Chargers or the 1-5 Giants, even the 2-3 Bengals look good by comparison. CBS managed a decent 12.0 for last week’s national window, which featured Steelers-Chiefs, but do not expect the network to be so fortunate this time around. Expect this week’s game to be a lot closer to the mere 9.1 CBS earned for Raiders-Broncos in Week 4. Prediction: 10.2.
CFB: Michigan-Penn State (7:30 PM Sat ABC)
The Big Ten has become the class of college football, at least in the ratings department. Big Ten conference games have topped the charts in three of the past four weeks, and it is almost certain that will extend to five of six with #2 Penn State facing Michigan this week and Ohio State the next. The only real competition might be last year’s Big Ten games. In week eight of last season, Penn State’s upset of then-#2 Ohio State had a 3.9 rating on ABC, a pretty high bar this time of year. With the Yankees playing a Game 7 and Notre Dame facing USC at the same time, this week’s game will have a tough time measuring up. Prediction: 3.3.
CFB: USC-Notre Dame (7:30 PM Sat NBC)
With both teams ranked in the top 15, USC-Notre Dame is a decently attractive matchup this season. Aided by a Michigan-Ohio State lead-in, the rivals’ meeting last season was the highest rated since 2012 with a 3.4 rating. This year’s game will be hard pressed to match that. Instead, look for the matchup to edge past their previous NBC meeting two years ago, which had a 2.5 in the same primetime window. Prediction: 2.6.
CFB: Tennessee-Alabama (3:30 PM Sat CBS)
The once-dominant SEC on CBS has fallen on hard times this season, with all six telecasts down from last year and just one cracking a 3.0 rating. It used to be that simply putting Alabama on was enough to move the needle, but the Tide’s only previous appearance this season — a 59-0 pulverization of Vanderbilt — netted only a 1.8. With Tennessee winless in SEC play this season, the prospect of another Tide rout seems high. Even a good game will be hard pressed to match last year’s Alabama-Texas A&M game (5.0). Prediction: 3.3.
NASCAR Playoffs: Kansas (3 PM Sun NBCSN)
If moving NASCAR races from cable to broadcast television ensures an increase in ratings, then surely moving races from broadcast to cable will do the opposite. Kansas did not do particularly well even when on the NBC broadcast network, scoring a 2.1 rating last year. The question this week is not whether ratings will decline, but whether they will fall to the depths seen earlier in the playoffs — when four straight races failed to crack a 1.5 rating. Prediction: 1.6.
F1: U.S. Grand Prix (3 PM Sun NBC)
If Formula 1 wants the U.S. Grand Prix to make even the slightest dent on the sporting calendar, it might be a good idea to avoid NFL Sundays. In four years on NBC, ratings for the race have dropped from 0.7 to 0.6 to last year’s 0.5. With NBC a lame duck, will the numbers go even lower this year? Prediction: 0.5.
Last Week’s Results
— NFL: Steelers-Chiefs. Prediction: 9.9, result: 12.0
— NFL: Giants-Broncos. Prediction: 8.5, result: 9.4
— ALCS: Yankees-Astros Game 2. Prediction: 3.6, result: 3.8
— NLCS: Cubs-Dodgers Games 1 & 2. Predictions: 3.4 and 3.6, results: 3.5 and 3.7
— CFB: Ohio State-Nebraska. Prediction: 1.8, result: 1.3
— CFB: Oklahoma-Texas. Prediction: 2.2, result: 2.1
— NASCAR Playoffs: Talladega. Prediction: 2.4, result: 2.8
