Predicting NFL Week 15 ratings. Also on tap, the start of the college football bowl season and the NBA.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
NFL: Patriots-Steelers (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
The Patriots-Steelers rivalry has not been quite as strong a draw as one might expect. Outside of their 2015 NFL Kickoff matchup (16.2), no game between the teams has cracked the 15.0 mark since 2008. Last year’s matchup had a mere 12.6. One could assume even lower numbers for this year’s game, given the season-long trend. Under the circumstances — a late-season matchup between the AFC’s top two teams — that seems doubtful. Instead, expect a rarity. Ratings should look about the same as they would in an ordinary season. Prediction: 14.0.
NFL: Cowboys-Raiders (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
When the NFL scheduled Cowboys-Raiders for a late season Sunday Night Football slot, no doubt they were expecting a better combined record than 14-14. With Dallas one game over .500 and Oakland one game under, there are few matchups more mediocre. Even so, the Cowboys are still the Cowboys. Oakland has been ratings poison for most of the year, but Dallas’ presence should keep ratings reasonably respectable — though there is no chance they will match last year’s 13.6 for Dallas against Tampa Bay. Prediction: 11.5.
NFL: Bears-Lions & Chargers-Chiefs (4:30 & 8:25 PM Sat, NFLN)
NFL Network has a rare Saturday doubleheader this weekend, highlighted by an unexpected battle at the top of the AFC West — the surging Chargers against the flatlining Chiefs. Given the playoff implications, Chargers-Chiefs is probably as good a matchup as NFL Network can get in mid-December. Expect a decent increase over last year’s Jets-Dolphins snoozer (2.5). In the early window, the dead-as-a-doornail Bears take on the middling Lions in a matchup that should challenge the worst NFL ratings in history. Predictions: 1.6 and 2.7.
Las Vegas Bowl: #25 Boise State-Oregon (3:30 PM Sat ABC)
Last year’s Las Vegas Bowl was the highest rated since 2012, with San Diego State-Houston scoring a 2.4 rating. This year’s matchup looks stronger on paper — the Boise State and Oregon programs are much better known than SDSU or Houston — so a new five-year high sounds about right. Prediction: 2.6.
NBA: Thunder-Knicks (7:30 PM Sat NBA TV)
Had Carmelo Anthony‘s trade to Oklahoma City taken place earlier in the offseason, his return to New York would have aired on TNT, ESPN or ABC, and probably on a better night than a mid-December Saturday. Expect a decent number by NBA TV standards, though a fraction of what it would have been otherwise. Prediction: 0.39.
Last Week’s Results
— NFL: Mostly Eagles-Rams. Prediction: 12.7; result: 13.7
— NFL: Mostly Cowboys-Giants. Prediction: 9.3; result: 9.1
— NFL: Ravens-Steelers. Prediction: 10.5; result: 10.1
— CFB: Army-Navy. Prediction: 5.2; result: 5.2
— Heisman Trophy Presentation. Prediction: 1.5; result: 1.3
— Top Rank Boxing. Prediction: 1.0; result: 1.0
— MLS Cup (ESPN). Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.5
