Ratings predictions for sporting events this weekend, including the NBA on ESPN/ABC, NASCAR on FOX, golf on NBC, and college basketball on CBS.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
Ratings for some events not available.
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NASCAR
|
2011 Daytona 500 | FOX |
10.4
|
8.7
|
| FOX earned an 8.7 final rating for this year’s Daytona 500, up 13% from last year’s 19-year low of 7.7, but the second-lowest rating for the race since 2000. | ||||
|
NASCAR Nationwide
|
Drive4COPD 300 | ESPN2 |
2.3
|
2.1
|
| One day earlier, the opener of the Nationwide Series season drew a 2.1 U.S. rating on ESPN2, down 25% from last year’s race (2.8), which featured the NASCAR debut of Danica Patrick. | ||||
|
NBA
|
2011 NBA All-Star Game | TNT |
5.0
|
5.2
|
| The NBA All-Star Game drew a 5.2 U.S. rating on TNT last Sunday, up 37% from last year, up 16% from 2009, and the highest rating for the league’s midseason showcase since 2003. | ||||
|
NBA
|
NBA All-Star Saturday Night | TNT |
3.7
|
4.4
|
| TNT earned a 4.4 U.S. rating for NBA All-Star Saturday Night, up 42% from last year, and up 13% from 2009. | ||||
|
NHL
|
Penguins/Blackhawks | NBC |
1.2
|
1.1
|
| The second half of last week’s Hockey Day in America doubleheader on NBC scored a 1.1 final rating, tied as the network’s highest rated regular season game since 2007 (excludes the Winter Classic). | ||||
|
NHL
|
Canadiens/Flames | Versus |
0.5
|
0.3
|
| Last Sunday’s NHL Heritage Classic, the league’s second outdoor game of the season, drew a 0.3 U.S. rating on Versus. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NBA
|
Lakers/Thunder | 2:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.5
|
| Sunday’s NBA slate begins with a playoff rematch between the Lakers and Thunder. The Lakers have been ABC’s biggest television draw this season, even surpassing the much-discussed Heat. Against the retooled Thunder, whose trade with the Celtics this week has spawned talk that they may now be a legitimate contender, expect solid numbers. On the comparable date last year, ABC drew ratings of 1.9 and 2.3 for Cavaliers/Magic and Celtics/Nuggets, respectively. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Knicks/Heat | 8 PM Sunday | ESPN |
2.4
|
| The biggest NBA game of the weekend pits Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and the Knicks against LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and the Heat. One would expect strong numbers for such a star-studded affair, but competition from the Oscars — one of the highest rated television programs of a given year — should hurt. Currently, ESPN’s highest NBA rating of the season is a 2.3, for both Magic/Heat on October 29 and Bulls/Knicks on Christmas Day. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Hawks/Trail Blazers | 10:30 PM Sunday | ESPN |
1.1
|
| The late game on Sunday night features the Hawks and Trail Blazers, two under-the-radar playoff teams. Even with what should be a strong lead-in from Knicks/Heat, do not expect big numbers. | ||||
|
NASCAR
|
Subway Fresh Fit 500 | 3 PM Sunday | FOX |
5.2
|
| Ratings have increased for all three NASCAR telecasts on FOX this season (the Budweiser Shootout, Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying, and Daytona 500). That trend may or may not continue Sunday, depending on one’s perspective. Sunday’s Subway Fresh Fit 500 will almost assuredly have a higher rating than the same race last year, which aired on a Saturday night in April (3.7). However, the rating may not match last year’s second race of the season, the Auto Club 500 from Fontana (5.6). | ||||
|
Golf (M)
|
Accenture Match Play Championship | 2 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.2
|
| 2 PM Sunday |
1.9
|
|||
| Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were eliminated early from the Accenture Match Play Championship, certainly bad news for NBC. Expect mixed ratings for the network’s coverage of the event this weekend; third round coverage should be up from last year’s extremely low 0.8. However, final round coverage may be hard pressed to match last year’s 2.1. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#20 Syracuse/#11 Georgetown | 12 PM Saturday | CBS |
1.3
|
| #7 BYU/#4 San Diego State | 2 PM Saturday |
1.7
|
||
| #13 Florida/#22 Kentucky | 4 PM Sunday |
1.6
|
||
| CBS offers college basketball fans a tripleheader of action on Saturday, with three matchups between Top 25 teams — highlighted by #7 BYU and #4 San Diego State. CBS aired just one game on the comparable date last year, earning a 0.9 for regional action in the Noon ET window. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#6 Pittsburgh/#16 Louisville | 2 PM Sunday | CBS |
1.1
|
| Indiana/#3 Ohio State | 4 PM Sunday |
1.3
|
||
| On Sunday, CBS continues its college basketball coverage with a doubleheader featuring Pittsburgh/Louisville and Indiana/Ohio State. The lone CBS game on the comparable date last year earned a 1.2. | ||||
