Weekend Ratings Predictions: CFB Playoff & More

After two middling years on New Year’s Eve, the College Football Playoff returns to New Year’s Day. The last time the semifinals took place on New Year’s Day, they generated two of the highest ratings in cable television history, 14.8 and 15.2. That seems like a pretty good sign for this year’s games, but there are reasons to curb any enthusiasm.

The New Year’s Day slot was definitely a factor in the massive 2015 numbers. Keep in mind however that 2015 also benefited from the novelty of the playoff, which had been anticipated for years, and from the strongest cast in the young history of the playoff. The first semi, Oregon vs. Florida State, pit a nationally hated national champion against a high-scoring underdog in a battle of the last two Heisman winners. The second game was Alabama against Ohio State in a matchup of, arguably, the two most popular teams in college sports.

This year’s semis — Oklahoma-Georgia in the Rose Bowl followed by Clemson-Alabama in the Sugar — are not as compelling. Oklahoma was a middling draw throughout the regular season and its star quarterback Baker Mayfield has yet to captivate a national audience (his Heisman victory was the lowest rated this century). Georgia played in two of the season’s top ten games, but that was primarily due to the general popularity of the SEC. As for Clemson and Alabama, the teams have played two straight national title thrillers, but viewership declined for each. Last year’s all-time classic was the least-watched title game since 2012.

The move from New Year’s Eve to New Year’s Day, and the outsized popularity of the Rose Bowl, should be enough to boost ratings past last year (10.7 early and 9.8 late). However, do not expect a return to 2015 levels. It is likely that this year’s numbers will fall closer to the past two years than to the blockbuster debut. Predictions: 11.8 and 12.2.

Outside of the playoff games, the New Year’s Six has not been nearly as strong a draw as the old BCS. Of the 12 non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, only three have managed to crack a 6.0 rating. That compares to 54 of the 56 non-championship BCS bowls.

This year’s Cotton Bowl should easily surpass the 6.0 mark, thanks to one of the best non-playoff matchups of the era. Ohio State-USC is a pairing of college football bluebloods, both good enough to have ended the season in playoff consideration. It goes without saying that ratings will cruise past last year’s Cotton Bowl, which aired during the day and featured Western Michigan (3.1). Expect ratings to also surpass the game on the comparable night last year, the Michigan-FSU Orange Bowl (6.2). Prediction: 7.1.

Few took Wisconsin all that seriously despite its undefeated record, and their loss in the Big Ten Championship validated the lack of serious national attention. There were some efforts to proclaim Miami “back” ala Magic Johnson at a Dunk Contest, but that was premature on the field and especially in the ratings. Look for the Orange Bowl to decline from last year’s previously mentioned 6.2 for Michigan-FSU. Prediction: 5.3.

With the NFL deciding to skip Sunday Night Football on New Year’s Eve, the season ends with a glut of late afternoon games this weekend. A whopping nine games will air across FOX and CBS in the 4:25 PM ET window, with the Titans, Ravens, Bills, Falcons and Seahawks each battling for a playoff berth. With FOX getting the biggest game of the bunch, Panthers-Falcons, expect it to come out ahead of CBS. However, expect FOX to sink from last year’s 12.3 — even with the stakes, the Panthers and Falcons are not that popular — and CBS to get a slight bump over last year’s 6.8. Predictions: 10.3 on FOX, 7.2 on CBS.

With the Patriots and Steelers battling for top seed in the AFC, Sunday’s early window should deliver a solid number for CBS. Last year’s comparable mark was a 9.2. FOX, meanwhile, has a slew of big name teams — Green Bay, Dallas and Philadelphia — with zero stakes. The Cowboys and Packers are out of the playoffs and the Eagles have clinched the #1 seed. Ratings should sink from last year’s 9.7. Prediction: 9.4 on CBS, 7.8 on FOX.

As the NHL celebrates the tenth anniversary of the Winter Classic this year, bringing back the Sabres for sentimental value, it is worth pointing out just how much the league wrung the outdoor concept dry. Instead of a special, once-a-year deal, the league added Stadium Series games and the occasional Canadian Classic. While the novelty of outdoor hockey was always going to fade, the league did its best to accelerate the process. Winter Classic ratings have hit all-time lows in each of the past three years, bottoming out at a 1.5 last year. Expect a new low this year. Prediction: 1.4.

The Louisville-Kentucky rivalry has lost a bit of steam lately, with ratings dropping in each of the past two years, A 1 PM Friday timeslot will do this year’s game no favors, nor will the absence of fired Cardinals coach Rick Pitino — whose relationship with both schools, and individual rivalry with John Calipari, provided much of the fuel to the fire. Last year’s game, a Wednesday night clash on ESPN, had a 1.7 rating. The 2016 matchup, a Saturday afternoon game on CBS, had a 1.8. Prediction: 1.5.