Predicting NBA playoff ratings and more, including the Stanley Cup Playoffs and Alabama’s spring game.
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NBA PLAYOFFS: CAVS-PACERS GAME 4 (8:30 PM SUN TNT)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 06: Cleveland Cavaliers Forward LeBron James (23) looks on during warmups before the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers on April 06, 2018 at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)
So it has come to this for the bumbling, stumbling Cavaliers: a must win in the first round. Cleveland faces a potential 3-1 hole on Sunday, putting one of the NBA’s most reliable draws in jeopardy just a week into the playoffs. It has been awhile since a team as high-profile as Cleveland has faced first round peril — Kobe Bryant‘s Lakers played a round one Game 7 six years ago — and there are pros and cons. On the positive side, there should be a larger than usual audience for Sunday’s Game 4 and the rest of the series. On the negative side, it now seems more likely than not that the NBA will be saddled with the ratings dud that is Raptors-Pacers in the second round, and that the league will be wholly dependent on the Sixers to drive ratings in the rest of the East playoffs.
More than anybody, LeBron James carried the NBA out of its mid-2000s nadir. Bryant’s Lakers and Kevin Garnett‘s Celtics began the process, but it was James’ move to Miami that took the NBA from also-ran to arguably the top non-football draw in sports. With Golden State now the biggest draw in the league and Philadelphia up and coming, it may be the case that the league can now survive without James. Barring a flip of the switch, we will soon find out if that is the case. As for Game 4, ratings should comfortably top Clippers-Jazz last year (2.4) and Cavs-Pistons in 2016 (2.8). Prediction: 3.0.
NBA PLAYOFFS: WARRIORS-SPURS GAME 4 (3:30 PM SUN ABC)
The Warriors and Spurs have played six straight playoff games without Kawhi Leonard on the floor, none of which have been even halfway decent entertainment. While all three games of this year’s ho-hum matchup have outdrawn the comparable telecast last year, none of those windows featured Golden State. Compared to the Warriors’ last two first round series, each game has actually declined. Expect that trend to reverse itself for Game 4. Last year’s Warriors-Blazers Game 4, which aired on TNT in a late night window, had a 2.4 rating. Last year’s comparable ABC window (Rockets-Thunder) had a 3.9. Prediction: 3.5.
NBA PLAYOFFS: THUNDER-JAZZ GAME 3 (10 PM SAT ESPN)
Other than the Cavaliers, no high-profile team is in as much first round danger as the Oklahoma City Thunder. That should help ESPN draw a solid rating for Saturday’s Game 3 in sure-to-be-raucous Utah, but do not expect an increase. Last year’s window featured Golden State and had a 2.6. Prediction: 2.4.
STANLEY CUP: PENGUINS-FLYERS GAME 6 (3 PM SUN NBC)
The NHL was in danger of having zero games Sunday, but the Flyers (and Avalanche) did the league a solid with Game 5 road wins. In the same afternoon slot last week, Flyers-Penguins scored a playoff-high 1.3 rating on NBC. That number should be higher this week, and up significantly from last year’s 1.1 for Senators-Bruins. Prediction: 1.5.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: ALABAMA SPRING GAME (2 PM SAT ESPN)
Alabama’s game is usually the highlight of the spring season, hence its airing on ESPN, but last year’s game suffered without an NBA playoff lead-in. The game had a 0.38 rating, down 31 percent from the previous year’s 0.55. With the game again lacking a meaningful lead-in, ratings should be about the same. Prediction: 0.39.
MLB: NATIONALS-DODGERS (8 PM SUN ESPN)
All three Sunday Night Baseball games this season have declined from last year. That might change this week, as last year’s comparable Nationals-Mets game set a low bar (0.9), but competition from a potentially strong Cavaliers-Pacers game will be an obstacle. Not helping matters: Washington and L.A. are a combined 18-20. Prediction: 0.8.
Last week’s results
— NBA: Spurs-Warriors Game 1. Prediction: 3.0; result: 2.8
— NBA: Pacers-Cavs Game 1. Prediction: 3.5; result: 3.8
— NBA: Heat-Sixers Game 1. Prediction: 2.6; result: 2.5
— NBA: Wolves-Rockets Game 1. Prediction: 2.7; result: 2.7
— Stanley Cup: Maple Leafs-Bruins Game 2. Prediction: 1.0; result: 1.1
— Stanley Cup: Penguins-Flyers Game 3. Prediction: 1.5; result: 1.3
— UFC on FOX 29. Prediction: 1.0; result: 1.2
— NASCAR Cup Series: Bristol. Prediction: 2.7; result: PPD
Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.
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