Ratings Predictions: NFL Divisional Round & More

NFL Wild Card ratings increased across the board last weekend, continuing the trend from the regular season. Yet as in the regular season, it would be overstating things to say that the numbers were ‘back to normal.’ Three of the four games declined from two years ago, and fall four declined from 2016. The NFL is clearly on a positive trajectory – which in and of itself is a mark of success in the current television environment – but the boom times are still past. Expect more of the same for this weekend’s Divisional Round games.

Cowboys-Rams (8:15p Sat FOX): FOX was one botched kick away from getting the Cowboys in the ideal scenario: late Sunday afternoon against the Saints. Instead, Dallas plays a Saturday Divisional Round game for the first time since 1986. As was the case 33 years ago, they will face the Los Angeles Rams, who proved a solid draw throughout the regular season. If Cowboys-Saints was to be a ratings bonanza, Cowboys-Rams figures to be an OK consolation prize. Ratings should comfortably top last year’s 14.5 for Titans-Patriots, the lowest Divisional Round rating in any window since 2009. Prediction: 16.6.

Eagles-Saints (4:30p Sun FOX): The defending Super Bowl champions versus this year’s Super Bowl favorites sounds like a made-for-TV matchup, assuming the game is at all competitive. New Orleans blitzed Philadelphia by 41 points in Week 11, a game that finished among the lowest rated national windows of the season. A similar result this time would have a similar impact on the ratings. Last year’s Saints-Vikings matchup had a 19.3, the lowest for the late Sunday Divisional game since 2001. Prediction: 19.9.

Chargers-Patriots (1p Sun CBS): The Patriots were not their usual dominant selves in 2018, but still played in three of the season’s five highest rated games – more than any other team. New England’s perceived vulnerability may well move the needle, particularly against a formidable Chargers team that enters with the better record. Expect ratings to bounce back from last year’s 18.3, which tied the lowest mark since 2002. Prediction: 19.4.

Colts-Chiefs (4:30p Sat NBC): Colts-Chiefs is not typically a marquee matchup, which might explain why this year’s game is their third straight playoff meeting in the early Saturday timeslot (typically the weakest of any playoff weekend). Still, NBC has reason for optimism due to the excellent quarterback matchup. Andrew Luck‘s resurgence is starting to enter the national conciousness, while Patrick Mahomes‘ emergence has been one of the stories of the season. Look for ratings to eke out an increase over last year’s 15.5 for Falcons-Eagles. Prediction: 15.7.

Before the NFL action starts Saturday, ESPN has a top 25 college basketball game featuring the #1 Blue Devils. Duke has had trouble on occasion in Tallahassee, where FSU has delivered far better results on the hardwood of late than on the gridiron. Expect a solid bump over last year’s 0.9 for West Virginia-Texas. Prediction: 1.2.

For the second straight week, CBS college basketball gets a direct lead-in from the NFL playoffs. Last week’s Indiana-Michigan game ended up as the highest rated of the season (1.9). Expect similar results this time around. With the same NFL lead-in last year, Northwestern-Indiana had a 1.9. Prediction: 1.9.

Manchester United rides a five-match winning streak into Sunday’s matchup with Tottenham, a pairing of two marquee names in English soccer. Expect a solid rating by EPL standards, so something in the 0.3 range. Prediction: 0.38.

After a resurgent 2018, the PGA Tour began 2019 on a weak note last weekend. The final round of the Tournament of Champions hit a four-year low on Golf Channel. Tiger Woods did not play that tournament, and will not play this week’s Sony Open either. Even last year, PGA Tour ratings were hit or miss without him. Look for another miss this week. Last year’s final round had a 0.33 rating, a multi-year high and up 94 percent from the previous year. Prediction: 0.26.