Ratings Predictions: Championship Sunday & More

This year’s NFL postseason has been almost the polar opposite of last year, when ratings declined for every single game. Through the Divisional Round, seven of eight games have increased, including three that have hit multi-year highs. It stands to reason that the good times will continue into Championship Sunday, particularly given the hype surrounding both matchups (and the inclement weather that will keep much of the country indoors).

Patriots-Chiefs (6:30p Sun CBS): Patriots fatigue is real. Last week’s Chargers-Patriots game delivered the lowest Sunday Divisional Round rating in at least 20 years and was the only game of the postseason to decline. Dating back to the 2017 postseason, New England’s last five playoff games – and six of their last seven – have declined from the previous year.

Expect that streak to end Sunday, when New England faces up and coming Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. The quarterback matchup of Tom Brady and electric Chiefs rookie Patrick Mahomes has already proven a solid draw. Their previous matchup in Week 6 finished with the fourth-highest primetime rating of the season. Ratings should comfortably top Vikings-Eagles in the same late window last year (21.7), the lowest rated conference title game since 2006. In the past five years, the late window has topped out at a 24.4. Prediction: 25.1.

Rams-Saints (3p Sun FOX): Fox would surely have preferred Cowboys-Saints (or Cowboys-Eagles), but Rams-Saints is a solid consolation prize. Despite playing in the nation’s 50th-largest television market, the Saints have become a reliable TV draw — the product of a superstar quarterback and a decade of playoff contention. The Rams lack the familiarity of New Orleans, but hail from the nation’s second-largest market. The teams’ Week 9 meeting was one of just eight regular season windows to crack a 13.0 rating. Expect ratings to challenge last year’s 24.3 for Patriots-Jaguars in the same early window. Prediction: 24.1.

Duke is always a strong draw, but an arsenal of star freshmen has turned this year’s Blue Devils into college hoops’ biggest show since the 38-1 Kentucky Wildcats of 2015. Expect Saturday’s top five matchup against UVA to deliver one of the top college basketball ratings of the season. Last year, another top five matchup between the same teams had a 2.0 rating on CBS. The current season-high is a 1.9 for Indiana-Michigan on CBS earlier this month. Prediction: 2.2.

As the NBA enters the post-football portion of the schedule, backloaded with marquee games, the absence of LeBron James becomes more significant. Already, James’ injury has taken the Lakers from home court advantage to the cusp of the lottery. Now, it may start taking a toll on the league’s ratings. The Lakers face Houston on Saturday and Golden State on Monday in a pair of made-for-TV matchups. The comparable matchups last year set a high bar (by regular season standards) with a 2.6 (Warriors-Rockets) and 2.8 (Cavs-Warriors). This year’s ratings should fall well short. Predictions: 2.0 and 1.8.

What to expect from the UFC on ESPN? It depends. UFC ratings dwindled in seven years on Fox Sports, with the primary UFC on FOX cards hitting record lows in the final years of the deal. It is hard to imagine that a simple channel change from Fox to ESPN will turn that around. Because the ESPN deal is primarily focused on ESPN’s over-the-top service ESPN Plus, ratings are no longer the consideration they once were. That may explain why ESPN Plus has Saturday’s main event, while ESPN airs the prelims. Do not expect a big rating, but the Duke-UVA lead-in should help a bit. Prediction: 0.9.

How many years could the Blackhawks finish in last place before NBC stopped giving them airtime? The answer may not be encouraging to those who want to see a greater variety of teams showcased in the NHL’s highest rated television window. Of course, the easiest way to get the Blackhawks off of NBC is to stop watching them in greater-than-average numbers, and that does not seem likely. Expect an increase for their matchup against the defending champion Capitals on Sunday; last year’s comparable Flyers-Capitals matchup had a mere 0.7. Prediction: 0.8.