Ratings Predictions: PGA Championship, playoffs and more

Tiger Woods‘ Masters win has consumed golf over the past month, for good and for ill. The obvious positive is that Woods — even after everything that transpired over the past decade — remains the rising tide lifting the sport. His return to prominence over the past year has breathed life into a game that had been searching, mostly in vain, for “the next Tiger.”

On the other hand, dependence on Woods is not such a great thing when he is out of the picture. Since the Masters, most PGA Tour windows on broadcast television have declined. Woods did not play any of the four events between the Masters and the PGA Championship, part of the reason why he crashed out of the season’s second major on Friday.

Absent Woods, weekend ratings for the PGA are guaranteed to plunge from last year, when he finished second. The only question is whether the remaining stars — namely the historically dominant Brooks Koepka — have the juice to keep ratings respectable. If not, perhaps the move from August to May can keep the ratings out of the outhouse.

Last year’s PGA Championship scored a 3.2 rating on Saturday and a 5.4 on Sunday. Two years ago, it had a 2.2 and 3.2 respectively, with the latter ranking as the second-lowest final round rating since 1981. Predictions: 2.5 and 3.7.

In the NBA’s most uncompetitive era since the 1960s, the ideal tomato can for the Golden State buzz saw is a team like Houston: a star-laden, big market pseudo-rival that people can talk themselves into believing in. Portland is not quite at that level, but the Western Conference Finals has nonetheless gotten off to a solid start.

After a decline (and four-year low) for Game 1, Game 2 bounced back to a ten-year high. How will Game 3 fare, particularly with Portland’s hope of an upset snuffed out in Game 2? Last year’s WCF Game 3 had a 4.6 rating, but that was on a Sunday night. Two years ago, Warriors Spurs had a 3.7 in the same Saturday night window. Prediction: 4.0.

From a ratings perspective, the NBA has rarely had a less appealing conference final matchup than #36 market Milwaukee and Canadian market Toronto. While the series is not lacking for stars — Giannis Antetokounmpo is the likely MVP and Kawhi Leonard is a former Finals MVP — it is certain to rank among the least-watched conference finals since the NBA’s mid-2000s lull. Game 1 viewership topped only Raptors-Cavaliers in 2016 and Grizzlies-Spurs in 2013 as the lowest for a conference final opener since 2008.

Not helping matters is Sunday’s early 7 PM ET start time for Game 3, necessitated to avoid the series finale of HBO’s endlessly-hyped “Game of Thrones.” The last two ECF Game 3s had a 4.0 rating. Prediction: 3.2.

After unprecedented Kentucky Derby drama two weeks ago, the Preakness Stakes is shaping up as a snoozer. Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first at the Derby only to be stripped of the win, is not participating. Country House, who was awarded the most anticlimactic win in Derby history, is not participating. Neither will the horses who crossed the finish line third and fourth, marking the first time that the top four finishers at the Derby have skipped the Preakness.

Needless to say, ratings are a virtual lock to decline. Last year’s Preakness had a 4.8 rating, topping only the previous year (4.6) as the lowest since NBC acquired rights. Given the diminished field, and new competition from the PGA Championship, one wonders if the race can even crack a 4.0. Prediction: 3.5.

Blues-Sharks did not exactly captivate the public three years ago, and little has changed for this year’s unanticipated rematch. Two of the first three games have declined from Golden Knights-Jets last year, no small feat in the most-watched Stanley Cup postseason on record. Expect another decline for Sunday’s Game 5; last year’s WCF clincher had a 1.3 in the same Sunday afternoon window. Prediction: 1.2.

MLB on FOX is back with the usual slate of primetime regional matchups. With the Red Sox and Cubs bouncing back from a slow start to the season, FOX could get a respectable (by 2019 standards) number Saturday night. Even so, it will be hard-pressed to match last year’s 1.6 for coverage featuring Angels-Yankees. Prediction: 1.4.

— Kentucky Derby. Prediction: 8.8; result: 9.4
— NHL: Blue Jackets-Bruins. Prediction: 2.3; result: 2.6
— NBA: Warriors-Rockets Game 3. Prediction: 4.2; result: 4.4
— NBA: Nuggets-Blazers Game 4. Prediction: 2.5; result: 2.5
— PGA Tour at Quail Hollow: final round. Prediction: 1.5; result: 1.6
— MLB: Cardinals-Cubs. Prediction: 0.8; result: 1.1