Ratings predictions: NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and more

The NBA Finals got off to a rough start in the ratings. Game 1 posted a 10.1 overnight, the lowest for a Finals opener in ten years, and the lowest for any game in six. As soon as that news became public Friday morning, the refrain began: “Of course ratings were down! Canadian viewership was not included!” Indeed, this NBA Finals is the first to ever feature a Canadian team, and the Game 1 audience in Canada — 3.5 million — could well make up the U.S. shortfall. A corresponding refrain: “Of course ratings were down! There was only one home market!” Indeed, it goes without saying that an NBA Finals with only one home market will perform worse than an NBA Finals with two home markets.

With those caveats noted, surely the ten-year Game 1 low is irrelevant, the result of a meaningless distinction between U.S. and Canadian viewership. Surely the NBA, which seems to always be riding high, even when it’s not, can celebrate a combined North American audience that may well exceed last year.

That assumes two things. First, that the U.S. numbers would have been just as good as in previous years, if not for the absence of one home market. That is not true. In the Bay Area, Game 1 ratings fell 15 percent from last year to rank as the lowest for a Warriors Finals game in their streak of five straight appearances. Other local ratings were hard to come by, but if this chart is to be believed, the overwhelming majority of markets fell short — well short, in some cases — of last year’s marks. Unless the absence of Canadian viewership caused viewers in the Bay Area to tune out in solidarity, there are clearly other factors at play.

It also assumes that a combined North American figure would be particularly meaningful. The U.S. and Canada are wholly separate viewing contexts that rely on wholly separate ratings companies (though Nielsen and Numeris share similarities). The NHL’s Canadian popularity — the Maple Leafs’ first round Game 7 still ranks ahead of any Raptors game this year — has no bearing on its relative U.S. obscurity. The Grey Cup could well claim a North American audience in the millions, but that does not change the fact that the U.S. audience was in the low six figures.

All of which is to say, the Game 1 numbers cannot simply be hand-waved away by invoking Canada. It is simply a fact that the Game 1 overnights were the lowest in the U.S. since 2009, and while the Raptors’ presence provides a major caveat, it does not change that fact.

Of course, the Game 1 number is just an overnight. The final nationals could hold up better, and if not, there are more games in the series. Perhaps Toronto’s upset of Golden State could cause some of the markets that tuned out on Thursday to give the series a chance on Sunday. Last year’s Game 2 had a 10.3 final rating. Prediction: 9.0.

Ratings were flat for Games 1 and 2 of the Stanley Cup Final, but there is no shame in matching last year’s above-average performance. Will Game 3 make it three in a row? Last year’s game had a 1.9 rating. Prediction: 2.0.

Red Sox-Yankees will probably never return to the levels of the mid-2000s, when their back-to-back ALCS both averaged double-digit ratings. Even so, the rivalry is more relevant now than it has been in more than a decade, which is good news for baseball’s TV partners. FOX sends Red Sox-Yankees to 67 percent of markets on Saturday, and then ESPN has the matchup on Sunday Night Baseball. Ratings should easily top last year’s comparable windows (1.3 on FOX and 0.9 on ESPN), even with the NHL and NBA finals providing competition. Predictions: 1.8 and 1.4.

Playing the weekend for the first time since he won the Masters, Tiger Woods is not quite in the hunt at Memorial – seven shots back through 36 holes and tied for 33rd place – but his presence should give the tournament a lift. Last year, in his first appearance at the event since 2015, final round coverage was moved up due to inclement weather. Any impact he would have had on the ratings was washed out. Assuming no weather issues this time around (there is a small chance of rain on Sunday afternoon), expect ratings to hit a multi-year high. The tournament last topped a 2.0 rating in 2016 (2.1). Prediction: 2.2.

The FOX era has not been too kind of the U.S. Women’s Open, which the past two years has tied its lowest final round rating on record (0.6). With Tiger Woods likely providing tough competition on Sunday, it is hard to imagine the numbers improving. Prediction: 0.5.

The UEFA Champions League final debuts on TNT and Univision Saturday with a matchup out of the Premier League. With viewership surging for the semifinal round, a big increase for the final seems likely. Last year, FOX had a 1.2 rating for English-language coverage. The Spanish-language rating on Fox Deportes was not available. The move from broadcast to cable should sink ratings on TNT, but expect Univision to make up for it. Prediction: 0.7 and 1.4.

So far, both IndyCar races on the NBC broadcast network have increased over last year. Can this weekend’s duel in Detroit make it 4-for-4? Last year, ABC pulled a 0.55 on Saturday and a 0.6 on Sunday. Predictions: 0.7 and 0.7.

— Indianapolis 500. Prediction: 3.5; result: 3.4
— NBA East Finals: Bucks-Raptors Game 6. Prediction: 3.9; result: 3.8
— Stanley Cup Final: Blues-Bruins Game 1. Prediction: 3.1; result: 2.9
— NASCAR Cup Series: Charlotte. Prediction: 2.6; result: 2.6
— F1 Monaco GP. Predictions: 0.6 (ESPN) and 0.7 (ABC); results: 0.6 and 0.49