Ratings predictions: NBA Game 4, NHL Game 6 (and more)

Even with the caveat that Canadian viewership is not included, it is hard to imagine many expected NBA Finals ratings to be this low. The first three games earned ratings of 7.8, 7.9 and 8.0, marking the three lowest-rated finals games since 2009. Yes, if the 3-4 million Canadian viewers per game were included, the numbers would be better. Yes, if Boston, or Philadelphia, or even Milwaukee was in the series instead, the numbers would be better. Even with those caveats, the numbers are still surprisingly weak.

For one thing, the Warriors’ presence should be enough to ensure solid numbers. Golden State, winner of three of the last four titles, is at worst the league’s second-biggest draw. In a postseason marked by declining ratings, Warriors games thrived. Their series against the Clippers was the saving grace of a weak first round; their series against Houston was one of the most impressive second round draws in recent memory; even their conference final sweep of Portland held up relatively well.

For another, Toronto is not always ratings poison. It is possible to draw solid numbers for Raptors games, as was the case for their series against LeBron James‘ Cavaliers last year, or their Game 7 thriller against the Sixers this year. The 2001 Raptors-Sixers Game 7 remains the highest rated second round game of the past 20 years. If the circumstances, or the opponent, are compelling enough, U.S. audiences turn out for Raptors games in healthy numbers.

One would think this year’s finals is suitably compelling. Due largely to the Warriors’ run of injuries, Toronto is up 2-1 and has a legitimate chance to pull off that rarest of beasts in the NBA — an upset. The drama has thus far failed to resonate with viewers, not just as compared to previous years, but even as compared to previous games. Far from building momentum, Toronto’s Game 3 win was the lowest rated of the series. Expect Game 4 to go even lower on a Friday night. No NBA Finals game has had less than a 7.8 rating since 2007. Prediction: 7.7.

Given the record pace the Stanley Cup Playoffs maintained for much of the postseason, one could be forgiven for expecting stronger numbers out of the Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Final. Even so, the series has held up fairly well compared to Capitals-Golden Knights last year and Penguins-Predators in 2017, both solid draws. Expect Game 6 to finish about on par with the 2017 game, which scored a 3.9. There was no Game 6 last year. Prediction: 3.7.

The FIFA Women’s World Cup is underway, but the United States does not get started until Tuesday. In the meantime, look for FOX to score a solid bump for England-Scotland Sunday afternoon. While Women’s World Cup ratings will have a hard time matching 2015 due to time zone differences, that should not be the case for matches airing in the same windows as four years ago. In a similar Sunday afternoon window in 2015, Norway-Thailand had a 0.6. Prediction: 0.9.

The Triple Crown season opened with unprecedented drama that has since fizzled into nothingness. With neither Maximum Security nor Country House running a race since the Derby, the controversy that lifted horse racing into the national spotlight seems as long ago as the Harlem Shake or Gangnam Style. Coming off of the lowest rated Preakness since NBC acquired rights, expect the Belmont to fall to a new low as well. 2017’s 3.2 is the current low. Prediction: 2.9.

It has been a good year for F1 thus far, at least in viewership (ratings have been mostly flat). Will that extend to ABC? Last year’s Canadian Grand Prix was the lowest rated since 2010 with a 0.6. Prediction: 0.6.

Ratings have increased for five straight Sunday Night Baseball games, with the Cubs having played in three of those. Even with Chicago back in the lineup, and facing rival St. Louis, expect that streak to end this week. Last year, Yankees-Mets had a 1.4 opposite no other major sports competition. Prediction: 1.2.

— NBA Finals: Warriors-Raptors Game 2. Prediction: 9.0; result: 8.0
— Stanley Cup Final: Bruins-Blues Game 3. Prediction: 2.0; result: 1.6
— MLB: mostly Red Sox-Yankees (FOX). Prediction: 1.8; result: 1.6
— MLB: Red Sox-Yankees (ESPN). Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.2
— PGA Tour: final rd. of the Memorial. Prediction: 2.2; result: 2.1
— US Women’s Open, final round. Prediction: 0.5; result: 0.5
— UEFA Champions League final. Prediction: 0.7 (TNT), 1.4 (UNIV); result: 0.9, n.a.
— IndyCar: Detroit. Prediction: 0.7 (Sat.) and 0.7 (Sun.); result: 0.55 and 0.7