Ratings predictions: UF-LSU and more

ESPN gets its strongest college football matchup in recent memory Saturday as Florida and LSU meet in a matchup of top-ten teams. Saturday’s game marks the fourth top-ten matchup this season, joining Auburn-Florida last weekend, Notre Dame-Georgia in week four, and LSU-Texas in week two. Ratings for those games have ranged from a 3.9 to 5.4. Should this week’s number fall in that range, it would set or tie ESPN’s highest regular season rating since Labor Day 2016 (Mississippi-FSU: 4.8).

In the same window last year, ESPN scored a 2.0 for Missouri-Alabama. Prediction: 4.4.

The Red River rivalry has returned to prominence after some lean years. Last season, their regular season matchup earned its highest rating (3.5) since 2011, only to be surpassed by their rematch in the Big 12 Championship — their highest rated matchup (6.2) since 2002.

Barring a blowout, this year’s game should continue the rivalry’s resurgence. Expect ratings to surpass last year as the highest since ’11 (4.3). Prediction: 3.8.

CBS had the opportunity to air Florida-LSU but went with Alabama-Texas A&M instead. One theory behind the decision is that CBS sacrificed Florida-LSU to ESPN in order to air Alabama-LSU in primetime later this year. More likely is that CBS bet on the possibility of Alabama facing a real road test. With the Tide favored by 2.5 touchdowns, it does not seem likely that the bet will pay off.

Even so, if A&M can keep the game relatively close, ratings could top last year’s 3.3 for Georgia-LSU. Prediction: 3.5.

Astros-Yankees did well for Fox Sports two years ago, ranking second out of the five LCS to air primarily on FS1. This year’s rematch should also be a strong draw, aided in part by a stronger schedule that includes more primetime and Sunday games.

With Game 1 in primetime on FOX — the first primetime LCS game on broadcast since 2015 — expect ratings to increase over the 2017 opener on FS1 (3.6). Sunday’s Game 2 on FS1 should also increase over 2017, when coverage aired on FOX — but on a Saturday afternoon (3.8). Predictions: 3.9 and 4.0.

The presence of the Cowboys and return of Sam Darnold should keep ratings respectable for Sunday’s NFL national window. In Week 6 last year, coverage featuring Jaguars-Cowboys had just a 10.2 — the lowest for a national window that featured Dallas since at least 2000. Expect a solid increase and maybe even a multi-year high. The comparable 2017 window (mostly Steelers-Chiefs) had a 12.0. Prediction: 12.1.

With the NFL deciding not to flex out Steelers-Chargers, NBC gets one of its worst Sunday Night Football matchups in recent memory this weekend. Depleted Pittsburgh is 1-4 and the Chargers 2-3. Ratings will of course decline from last year’s marquee Chiefs-Patriots game (12.3). Two years ago, NBC scored a 9.4 for Denver against the then-winless Giants. Prediction: 8.8.

The good news for NASCAR is that 12 races have increased over last season, the most in any year since 2013. The bad news is that 16 races have declined to historic lows. Where will Talladega fall? Last year’s 2.2 rating tied at least a 20-year low. Given the relatively low bar, an increase certainly seems possible. It was just two years ago that the race had substantially healthier 2.8. Prediction: 2.4.