Ratings predictions: Cowboys-Patriots and more

On paper, there is no better NFL ratings matchup than Cowboys-Patriots, a quadrennial pairing of the league’s highest-profile and most polarizing teams. That has not necessarily been the case in practice. Their last meeting four years ago — a 24-point New England rout — ranked outside of the top ten windows of that season (15.2).

That same 15.2 rating today would match the highest regular season NFL mark in four seasons. A 14.2 would tie the highest mark in three. Anything above a 14.0 would at least tie the season high set by Patriots-Eagles last Sunday.

It seems unlikely that Patriots-Cowboys would be less of a draw than Patriots-Eagles, so season and multi-year highs look to be in the cards. Still, do not be totally surprised if the numbers clock in below those high expectations. It was just last month that a similarly attractive Packers-Cowboys game averaged a 13.8. Prediction: 14.5.

Packers-49ers was originally set to air in Sunday’s NFL national window, likely going to fewer than a third of TV homes as the secondary game behind Patriots-Cowboys. Instead, it now airs nationwide on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

San Francisco’s resurgence has been a welcome development for the NFL. When competitive, the 49ers are one of the league’s strongest draws. It goes almost without saying that ratings will jump over last year’s 11.6 for Packers-Vikings, but how high? A season-high seems out of reach, given the high bar that Cowboys-Saints set back in September (13.7). Prediction: 13.3.

Packers-49ers bumped a perfectly solid Seahawks-Eagles game from Sunday Night Football, much to the benefit of FOX. Now the network gets a strong early game to air in 61% of markets, which should translate into one of the season’s highest ratings in the window. The highest rated early doubleheader window this season averaged a 9.6. Prediction: 8.9.

Penn State-Ohio State has been one of college football’s strongest draws in recent years, averaging a 5.3 rating on ABC last year and a 5.75 on FOX two years ago. This year’s game was poised to do even better until Penn State’s loss to Minnesota robbed FOX of a matchup of unbeatens. As it is, ratings should remain in range of the past two years. Prediction: 5.7.

The SEC’s annual pre-Thanksgiving cupcake week usually leaves CBS with few options, but this year is an exception. Playoff contender Georgia versus AP-ranked Texas A&M looks like a respectable draw — especially if the game is as competitive as the two-touchdown spread. Prediction: 3.3.

A network switch bodes well for the final event of the LPGA Tour season. For the last few years, the season finale has stuck out like a sore thumb on ABC, which does not carry any other golf all year. Now, the event airs on NBC, the home of every major women’s golf tournament except for the US Women’s Open. There is something to be said for scheduling events where your viewers expect to find them. Last year’s 0.42 rating was not too bad given the circumstances. Prediction: 0.54.