Predictions for the new decade in sports media. Plus, a look back at the predictions for the 2010s this site made ten years ago.
NFL stays with current partners …: The NFL keeps its status quo in its next media rights deals, with only small changes. As has been widely suggested by reporting in the New York Post and Sports Business Journal, ESPN includes ABC in its deal. In an arrangement modeled after the FOX/NFL Network Thursday Night Football deal, ESPN will simulcast half of its Monday night games on ABC. The move allows ESPN/ABC to finally get into the Super Bowl rotation.
… but adds new package: The long-rumored 17th NFL regular season game becomes a reality. The games are packaged as a series of special event telecasts, including on holidays and late season weekends. At first, the new package is sold to FOX, but by the end of the decade the rights belong to Amazon.
Changes for the NHL: Fox Sports acquires rights to the NHL from NBC, with the entire Stanley Cup Final airing on the FOX broadcast network.
Stability for the NBA: The NBA signs another extension with ESPN and Turner Sports, getting a modest bump in rights fees over the current deal.
More CFB competition for ESPN: ESPN, as expected, acquires the SEC on CBS package — but the network’s college football coverage takes a hit when FOX acquires the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl (whose deals are separate from the overall College Football Playoff package).
ESPN beefs up MLB inventory: ESPN acquires Turner Sports’ MLB Postseason package, airing one league’s Division Series games across its networks (including ABC), and one League Championship Series exclusively on the flagship ESPN network. With ESPN taking over the Turner contract, FS1 gets the leftover Wild Card game that ESPN has aired the past few years.
More money, less exposure, for NASCAR: NASCAR gets a small increase in rights fees in its next contract, but at the expense of broadcast network exposure. Its new deal includes just three races on “big FOX” the Daytona 500, Talladega and Charlotte) and three on NBC (the Daytona 400, Brickyard and season finale).
Ratings trends: Sports viewership rises across the board once Nielsen begins including out-of-home data in its final nationals later this year, but by the end of the decade, a number of events are at historic lows. World Series ratings are consistently in the 6.0 level by 2029, while the Daytona 500 ends the decade under the 4.0 mark.
Going out on a limb: By the end of the decade, sports networks that have financial relationships with the major leagues pivot away from journalism almost entirely, save for token efforts that are restricted to low-viewership spots on the schedule.
Results of the last decade’s predictions:
2011: Versus is renamed NBC Sports Network.
This happened in 2012, but it did not take a psychic to know this was coming.
2011: Both the Bowl Championship Series and the NCAA Tournament draw record low ratings in their first year on ESPN.
A two-in-one whiff. Not only did the BCS avoid record-low ratings in year one on ESPN, the NCAA Tournament never ended up at the network (though it seemed likely at the time).
2011: NBC/NBC Sports Net extend their television deal with the NHL an additional two seasons.
NBC and NBCSN extended their NHL deal, but for far longer than just two years. Their ten-year agreement does not expire until 2021.
2011: David Stern retires as NBA Commissioner and 2012: Bud Selig retires as MLB Commissioner.
Commissioner Stern did not retire until 2014 and Selig until 2015. (It should be noted here that Stern passed away earlier today at age 77.)
2012: ESPN acquires Deadspin, which becomes a retooled Page 3.
This was not a serious prediction, but Deadspin did change hands during the 2010s. After Gawker was sued out of business for posting a sex tape of Hulk Hogan, Deadspin ended up under the ownership of Univision, and then the private equity firm Great Hill Partners. Mismanaged by its new private equity owners, who wanted the famously eclectic site to ‘stick to sports,’ Deadspin was all-but-dead by the end of the decade.
2013: Comcast acquires rights to Major League Baseball games in a 5-year deal. The World Series and one LCS will air on NBC, while the Division Series and the other LCS will air on NBC Sports Net.
Major League Baseball stayed with Fox, ESPN and Turner Sports. Comcast was not a major factor in the bidding.
2013: Comcast’s NBC acquires the rights to the NFL’s AFC package. Sunday Night Football moves to NFL Network.
Bold predictions can sometimes just be wild guesses. A real swing and a miss, particularly on the idea of NFL Network getting Sunday Night Football.
2013: ESPN extends its Monday Night Football deal and becomes part of the NFL’s Super Bowl rotation.
ESPN did renew its Monday Night Football deal, but is still trying to get into the Super Bowl rotation.
2013: Without the NCAA Tournament and the NFL, CBS acquires rights to the NHL. The NHL also returns to ESPN, though most games air on ESPN2.
CBS kept the NCAA Tournament and was never close to losing the NFL. The NHL remains on NBC.
2014: The Bowl Championship Series extends its television agreement with ESPN an additional four years.
The Bowl Championship Series no longer exists, but its successor the College Football Playoff is with ESPN through 2026.
2016: ESPN airs its first Super Bowl. The game draws 88 million viewers, well below previous years, but by far the most-viewed program in cable television history.
In fairness, 2016 was six years away when this prediction was written, and a lot can happen in six years. Just not this.
2016: ESPN acquires exclusive rights to the NBA. Wednesday and Friday games now air on ESPN2, while the Thursday night and Sunday afternoon packages now air on ESPN. The entire NBA Playoffs and Finals moves to ESPN.
ESPN renewed its NBA deal in 2014, but continues to share rights with Turner.
The WNBA celebrates its 20th anniversary.
This may not seem like much of a prediction, but the WNBA’s continuing to exist another eight years was no sure thing in 2009.
2018: Major League Baseball signs a six-year deal that puts the World Series and one LCS on ESPN. The Division Series and the other LCS air on MLB Network.
The only media rights deal MLB reached in 2018 was a ten-year extension with Fox Sports, which will continue to air games through 2028.
