Ratings predictions: MLB Opening Night and more

Nearly four months later than scheduled, the Major League Baseball season is set to begin Thursday night. While no league had an easy time setting a return-to-play plan, MLB came closer than most to the precipice of a canceled season. Weeks of fraught negotiations between the league and players union were not exactly great for public relations, but there nonetheless seems to be a sense of anticipation entering this year’s planned 60-game slate.

The big question for sports entities this year has been how much the assumed pent-up demand for sports will translate into viewership. A number of events have posted big increases for their first events back, followed by a reversion to the mean (ex. NASCAR). The PGA Tour has bucked the trend with a sustained run of double-digit gains, but the numbers are not exactly eye-popping (its highest rating since its return is a 2.1).

Fox Sports exec Michael Mulvihill is on record as saying he expects the network’s first weekend of games to increase 40 percent over last year’s openers. The first FOX window last year had a 1.5 rating, so that means a 2.1. If you’re expecting big growth, then that fits the bill. If you’re expecting record ratings or some otherwise historic turnout, not so much.

Say Thursday’s Yankees-Nationals opener doubles last year’s comparable Opening Night window, a Red Sox-Mariners game that had just a 0.8. That 1.6 rating would mark a three-year high (Cardinals-Cubs had a 2.1 in 2017). Ratings would have to nearly triple in order to reach a 12-year high (Braves-Nationals had a 2.4 in 2008). Even with substantial growth, expect ratings to be closer to typical than historic. Predictions: 1.7 and 1.2.

None of Wednesday’s NBA scrimmages cracked the 300,000 viewer mark on NBA TV, but none of those games involved the Lakers. Do not expect spectacular numbers on a crowded Thursday night, but the NBA’s highest-profile team and player should still move the needle relative to the rest of the league. Prediction: 0.28.

NASCAR may not have expected MLB Opening Night competition when it scheduled Kansas for a Thursday night slot. Given the struggles NASCAR has had with weeknight racing on nights when there was no other sports competition, set expectations low. The lowest rated race this season — a midweek outing at Charlotte — had a mere 0.9. Prediction: 0.9.

The WNBA is scheduled to begin its season with the anticipated rookie debut of Sabrina Ionescu. The NCAA Tournament generates the lion’s share of media attention toward women’s basketball, and Ionescu was denied a widely-expected star turn when this year’s edition was canceled. Even so, she enters her pro career with a fairly high profile. With Breanna Stewart making her return from an Achilles injury, and assuming the WNBA gets the same return bump that other leagues have experienced, ratings could challenge last year’s opener on ABC (0.33). Prediction: 0.29.

The NWSL Challenge Cup is scheduled to reach its conclusion on Saturday with the league’s second-ever window on broadcast television. The first CBS window last month averaged a 0.37, easily the highest in league history. With zero games on broadcast — or even cable — television since then, can the league build on that record start? Prediction: 0.30.