Ratings predictions: NBA play-in game and more

For a variety of reasons, NBA ratings have been under the microscope since the league resumed play last month. Much has been made of the fact that viewership for the league restart has trailed the pre-hiatus average. For anyone still harboring expectations of a sports ratings bonanza after a months-long drought, or searching for evidence that the league’s off-court stances are hurting its bottom-line, the dip has been a hot topic.

Yet the numbers are not overly surprising. Under normal circumstances, the NBA’s “seeding games” would have been overshadowed by college basketball’s championship week and March Madness. Relatively few would have aired on national television; ESPN, ABC and TNT were scheduled for fewer games from March 12-April 15 (30) than they ended up airing over the two weeks since the reason resumed (35). None would have aired on a weekday afternoon, or even as early as 6:30 PM ET, the primary timeslot for early doubleheader games in the restart.

Add to that the relative quiet in the final days of any NBA season, a period that features some important games, but many more with little at stake; the fact that ratings were trending down long before the hiatus, even as far back as last season; the lack of exclusivity for national games, including those on ABC; and the lower television viewing levels in August than in March or April, and the real surprise becomes that anyone is surprised.

The end of the irregular season solves one problem. Starting Saturday, the stakes rise dramatically higher with the first ever NBA playoff play-in game. Will meaningful games be enough to turn the numbers around? Portland’s narrow win to advance to the play-in was TNT’s most-watched season finale in nine years. The league will need those kind of performances to overcome a playoff schedule that features numerous weekday afternoon starts.

As for Saturday’s play-in, there are no real parallels. Outside of Christmas and the Kobe Bryant tribute game in January, the highest NBA rating all season was a 2.3. For all the buzz around Damian Lillard’s play, it is hard to imagine Saturday’s game against a struggling and under-the-radar Memphis team reaching that mark. Predictions: 2.1 (Sat) and 2.0 (Sun).

The Stanley Cup Playoffs has gotten off to its best start since moving to NBC Sports, an impressive feat given the weekday afternoon start times. The NBC broadcast network gets into the mix this weekend with three games, two in primetime.

First, NBC gets Golden Knights-Blackhawks Saturday night, two teams that have boosted the network in previous postseasons. Then, Flyers-Canadiens in NBC’s first Sunday night NHL game outside of the Stanley Cup Final. Game 1 of that series ranks as the most-watched of the playoffs thus far (through Thursday), which bodes well.

None of NBC’s first round games last season exceeded a 1.0 rating; expect both primetime games to surpass that mark. Predictions: 1.2 and 1.4.

NASCAR debuts a new road course configuration at Daytona this weekend. One of its recent success stories was the “Roval” at Charlotte, which moved the needle in an otherwise down year for the sport two years ago. Given Daytona’s overall popularity, any added intrigue is icing on the cake. Last year’s second Daytona race averaged a 2.1 rating, but that was a Sunday makeup on the traditional oval over July 4 weekend. Two years ago, the second Daytona race had a 2.7 on a Saturday night.

This race is not only new, it is also a late add to the schedule — and it faces competition from the NHL playoffs and a possible NBA play-in game. It seems fairly unlikely that ratings will come anywhere close to 2018’s 2.7, and even last year’s 2.1 seems out of reach. Still, expect a good number by recent standards. Last year’s comparable Watkins Glen race averaged a 1.7 on NBCSN. Prediction: 2.0.

For the second time in four weeks, Sunday Night Baseball pits the Red Sox against the Yankees. Their previous meeting averaged a 1.2 rating, easily the highest for SNB in what has been a weak start to the season. Expect similar numbers this week, if slightly higher due to an ESPN2 Statcast simulcast. Prediction: 1.3.