Ratings predictions: PGA Championship, NBA and more

In the nearly three months since sports began to return from hiatus, the general rule has been a one-time ratings bump for the first event back, followed by a quick return to normal. The exception has been the PGA Tour. After hitting decade-plus highs for its June return at Colonial, the Tour has maintained that momentum with a string of double-digit increases for subsequent tournaments.

The good times have extended into the season’s first major, the PGA Championship. The first two rounds each hit five-year viewership highs and there is no reason to expect anything different over the weekend. The combination of golf’s ratings momentum, a year-long gap between majors and extensive primetime coverage should send ratings skyward.

Last year’s PGA Championship took place in May and averaged a 2.3 on Saturday and a 3.3 on Sunday. Two years ago, it took place in August and averaged a 3.2 and 5.4, respectively — but Tiger Woods was in contention for what would have been his first major title since 2008. Expect this year’s rating to settle in the middle, though probably closer to 2018 levels. Predictions: 3.0 and 4.5.

The NBA season restart averaged 2.74 million viewers after one night, 1.86 million after five, and 1.56 million after a full week. Viewership is now slightly below the league’s pre-hiatus levels of 1.63 million. The downward trend is not entirely surprising. Even assuming a pent-up desire for NBA games after a four-month absence, there is only so much regular season basketball people are willing to watch in one week. With multiple nationally-televised games every day, any excess demand would seem to have been satisfied rather quickly.

Do not expect particularly impressive numbers for this weekend’s games. Expect TNT’s Lakers-Pacers Saturday evening to fall short of Lakers-Jazz on ESPN a week earlier (1.1). Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ free-fall should hurt ABC on Sunday, even if Zion Williamson plays. Predictions: 0.9 (LAL-IND) and 1.0 (SA-NO).

The NHL qualification round features only one winner-take-all game as Toronto ‘hosts’ Columbus Sunday night. So far, the NHL numbers have been pretty good by regular season standards, and less so if compared to first round playoff levels.

Ratings for last year’s three first round winner-take-all games ranged from a 0.7 to a 1.0, with the Maple Leafs’ loss to Boston averaging a 0.8. It is hard to imagine Sunday’s Game 5 reaching that level, but a direct lead-in from NASCAR could help. Prediction: 0.6.

NASCAR has its second doubleheader of the season this weekend as the Cup Series heads to Michigan on both Saturday and Sunday. The first doubleheader at Pocono was a decent-enough draw, with both races earning a 1.6 rating, but there were far fewer competing sporting events back in June. Michigan faces a tough line-up that includes the PGA Championship and MLB, NBA and NHL games. Expect both races to fall well short of last year’s 1.8 for the lone Michigan race that was run as scheduled. Prediction: 1.1 and 1.4.

With Cubs-Cardinals postponed, ESPN gets the other Chicago baseball team Sunday night as the White Sox host Cleveland. National MLB ratings have been pretty unimpressive since the opening weekend of play, and it is hard to see that changing any time soon. On the third weekend of last season, Sunday Night Baseball scored a 0.8 rating (Braves-Mets). On the same August weekend last year, it drew a 0.85 (Phillies-Giants). Prediction: 0.7.