Ratings predictions: Indy 500, NBA and more

When asked by this writer what the ratings expectations were for Sunday’s Indianapolis 500, NBC Sports executive producer Sam Flood deftly avoided the topic: “All I can say is the beauty of our jobs and the talent’s job on this call is we’re the content part of the business, so we’re ready to put on a great show, incredible experience for the fans, and the viewership can be for the commerce people to worry about.”

One can hardly blame him. Far from the ratings bonanza forecast in April and May, sports’ comeback has been a mixed bag. The big events have done well — the NFL Draft, “The Last Dance,” the first NASCAR, MLB and the NBA telecasts — but with increasingly diminishing returns. The pent-up demand that was supposed to fuel big, blockbuster viewing would seem to have been largely spent. All that is left now is a number of events in odd times of year, and even odder timeslots, airing in a time of year when television viewing is generally lower. While that is far superior to the alternative, or even to a typical August, it is not a great environment for the Indy 500 – an event that needs all the help it can get just to keep afloat in a typical year.

The Indy 500’s primary appeal is tradition, particularly its spot on the calendar during Memorial Day weekend. The middle of August does not have the same cachet. Add to that the crowded schedule — the race is set to compete with NBA playoff games head-to-head for the first time since 1998* — and conditions seem ripe for a record-low. Last year’s race had a 3.4 rating, up from the previous year’s all-time low of 3.1. Prediction: 2.3.

As one would expect, Lakers-Blazers has been easily the highest rated series of the NBA Playoffs. The numbers have not necessarily been out-of-this-world — a 2.15 rating for Game 1 and a 1.9 for Game 2 — but they more-than-suffice in a postseason full of weekday matinees. Better numbers can be expected with Game 3 on broadcast television and no meaningful competition (the first two games faced a political convention).

ABC’s first game of last year’s playoffs, Clippers-Warriors Game 1 on a Saturday night, averaged a 3.0 rating. Given the trend this season, that might be too high a bar. Prediction: 2.5.

Kawhi Leonard authored one of the greatest moments in playoff history last year with Toronto, but he has yet to really move the needle. The two NBA Finals Leonard has won rank as the two lowest rated since 2009, despite his teams defeating the LeBron-era Miami Heat and Curry-era Golden State Warriors. His Clippers have been a middling draw this season, which could be an issue if their playoff run is as deep as expected. Expect a fairly steep drop in ratings for their ABC playoff debut Sunday; last year’s comparable Warriors-Clippers Game 4 averaged a 3.8. Prediction: 2.2.

The NHL has powered through qualifiers and the first round of the playoffs in just three weeks, eliminating 16 teams along the way. The second round gets underway with a pair of primetime games on NBC this weekend. NBC’s primetime games since the season restarted have not been particularly impressive, even as ratings have held up well overall. Do not expect that to change this weekend. Prediction: 0.8 and 0.9.

The Univision family of networks have been the beneficiary of CBS’ decision to put its UEFA Champions League matches on CBS All-Access and CBS Sports Network. The past week has been filled with press releases announcing new UCL records on Univision and TUDN, which has been generating some of the largest UCL knockout audiences ever on a single outlet. For Univision to set a single-network rating record for Sunday’s final, it will have to top 2011’s 1.4 on FOX. Prediction: 1.0.