Ratings predictions: The Masters, NFL, CFB

The Masters is the final sporting event displaced from its usual time of year, shifted seven months out of alignment from the start of spring to the end of fall. This year’s other rescheduled sporting events suffered sharp declines to all-time record-lows, but there are reasons to believe that the Masters should hold up somewhat better, even if record-lows are nonetheless inevitable.

Waiting until November allowed the Masters to avoid the pile-up of sporting events that took place in September and October, a period of ratings cannibalization like none before. Instead, the tournament is taking place during a relatively slow period on the sporting calendar, albeit one that still features pro and college football. The post-election cable news audience should remain somewhat elevated (especially as compared to last April), but nothing at the level that the other sports faced earlier this fall.

While the television landscape is a bit less intimidating than a few weeks ago, it is still far from ideal. The football competition alone should sink this weekend’s numbers, especially given the earlier timeslots necessitated to avoid it.

Last year, third and final round coverage of the Masters averaged ratings of 5.5 and 6.9 respectively on CBS. That 6.9 for Tiger Woods’ iconic win may look surprisingly mediocre, but keep in mind the final round started at 9 AM ET to avoid rain. It is fair to say that is the highest possible rating for golf in that timeslot.

This year’s start time is similar, but with the added obstacle of NFL competition. Even if Woods somehow repeated last year’s miraculous performance, it seems a virtual lock that ratings will decline double-digits. Masters Sunday has not dipped below a 6.8 rating since 1961 (6.1). Predictions: 3.9 (Saturday) and 5.0 (Sunday).

To accommodate the Masters, CBS is in the rare position Sunday of foregoing its 1 PM ET NFL games. The network’s coverage will air solely in the late singleheader slot of 4:05 PM, with Bills-Cardinals headlining a limited three-game slate.

In a typical week, the 4:05 games go to perhaps a third of markets and rarely have a meaningful lead-in. The 1:00 games drive singleheader ratings. Thus, it is simultaneously true that far more viewers than usual will be watching those 4:05 games this week, even as the singleheader posts one of its lowest ratings in years. Last year’s Week 10 singleheader had an 8.9. Prediction: 5.3.

FOX has all of the 1 PM ET games this week, which on paper should mean big numbers. Because the 1:00 games are split between networks almost evenly, there is no small amount of ratings cannibalization. It can be easy to overlook just how many viewers are watching those early games. Last week, CBS had a 5.8 for its 1 PM ET games and FOX an 8.7 for its singleheader (which included 1 PM games in 75% of markets). Combined those ratings and you get a 14.5, higher than any individual NFL window all season.

Does that mean FOX can expect a season-high on Sunday? Probably not. The Masters is not the toughest competition, but it should still take a bite out of the NFL audience. Even so, do not be surprised if the 1 PM window is the highest rated of the week. Prediction: 11.5.

The Patriots’ decline is not good news for the NFL, but New England still has big names in Cam Newton and Bill Belichick and (potentially) eight more games to turn things around. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have yet to draw as well as one would expect but remain one of the NFL’s most talked about teams. Do not expect SNF to snap its streak of single-digit ratings — or come close to last year’s comparable Vikings-Cowboys game (12.9) — but expect a decent enough number by 2020 standards. Prediction: 8.6.

Michigan’s poor start and Wisconsin’s two-week hiatus have robbed this week’s featured Big Ten clash of its intrigue. The Badgers may be ranked #13, but in a season where they will play at most six games, it is hard to be invested in their playoff aspirations. Michigan of course has none. On the same week of last season, ABC had a mere 1.6 for Clemson-NC State. Ratings should at least surpass that low bar. Prediction: 2.7.