Ratings predictions: Saints-Bucs, Clemson-ND and more

In a year filled with so many drags on sports TV ratings — months-long delays, unprecedented levels of competition, empty neutral-site venues — the presidential election may well go under the radar. Election years almost always take a toll on sports ratings. World Series ratings have set new all-time record-lows in four of the last six presidential election years, the curse-breaking runs of the 2004 Red Sox and 2016 Cubs the lone exceptions.

NFL ratings have dropped in every election year dating back to at least 1996, with the declines ranging from slight (2 percent in 2004 and 2008) to double-digits (ten percent in the protracted election year of 2000). The league’s viewership fell eight percent during the last election year four years ago, the beginning of sports ratings’ transformation into culture war fodder.

So far this season, NFL viewership is down seven percent, in line with the historical trend.

The silver lining to election years is that they eventually end, and the ratings usually go back to normal. Four years ago, NFL ratings were noticeably stronger after the election ended, with the league scoring its best rating of the entire season on the Sunday after Election Day. A similar recovery will be difficult this year because of the many other factors affecting sports ratings, but the end of the election should nonetheless coincide with at least some improvement.

The election was called by most major outlets Saturday morning, but that does not necessarily mean that news viewing will immediately revert to normal. The NFL may well have a soft week on its hands despite some strong-looking matchups.

The strongest of those matchups is the Sunday night clash of Tom Brady and Drew Brees. The QBs’ previous head-to-head in Week 1 delivered the highest rating of the season thus far, a 13.1. In a weak year for SNF — more games have averaged in a single-digit rating (five) than double (four) — it is hard to imagine this week’s rematch doing anywhere near as well. Prediction: 11.1.

If the Cowboys had Dak Prescott — and a decent record — their clash with the undefeated Steelers this week would mark one of the league’s strongest marquee matchups in recent years. Instead, CBS will be depending on name recognition and perhaps a little 1970s nostalgia for a game that is shaping up as a mismatch (Pittsburgh is favored by two touchdowns). Notably, it was on the first Sunday after the 2016 election that this same Cowboys-Steelers matchup delivered the NFL’s highest rating of the season. Do not expect a repeat.

In Week 9 last year, coverage featuring Packers-Chargers averaged a 12.8. Prediction: 12.7.

Notre Dame hosts the nation’s #1 team for the first time since the 2005 “Bush push” when Clemson visits South Bend Saturday night. This top five matchup has lost some luster with the absence of Trevor Lawrence, but nonetheless has major College Football Playoff implications.

On paper, one might look at a top five, primetime game pitting Notre Dame against a dynastic #1 and assume — at least — a season-high rating. Do not be so sure. NBC games tend to have a lower ceiling than those on the other networks, possibly because it airs only 6-7 games per year. Plus, Clemson’s drawing power is limited for a team of its stature; excluding bowls, no game involving the Tigers has exceeded a 4.0 rating since a 2016 matchup against Louisville (5.5).

The current season high is a 5.3 for Georgia-Alabama last month. Prediction: 4.5.

The Pac-12 returns Saturday with its first ever 9 AM local time start. A popular explanation for the conference’s relatively low profile is the late start times for many of its games. Hence Saturday’s bright-and-early Noon ET start. Will that be enough to get viewers to tune in for the nation’s #20 team against an unranked opponent? In the same week ten window last year, FOX averaged a 1.8 for Nebraska-Purdue. Prediction: 1.6.

NASCAR’s long, strange 2020 comes to an end at Phoenix this weekend. The season began with a promising start at Daytona, which was immediately dampened by a day-long rain-delay and a near-tragedy involving Ryan Newman. It included a two-month pause, a highly rated return at Darlington, and the most-watched Monday make-up race in six years. It also included the six least-watched Cup Series races since at least 2000 and the first two to dip below a 1.0 rating — midweek races at Charlotte in May and Kansas in July (0.9 each).

The roller-coaster comes to an end Sunday at Phoenix, which is hosting the season finale for the first time. Ratings should easily top last year’s fall Phoenix race (1.6), but what about last year’s finale at Homestead (2.2)? Prediction: 2.0.

Triple Crown ratings hit all-time lows this year, but each of the three races was run later than scheduled — by several months, in the case of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. No such problem for the Breeders Cup Classic, which is being run as usual in early November (albeit in an earlier timeslot than last year). Can it avoid the steep declines suffered by horse racing’s other marquee events? Last year’s race had a 1.1 rating, the second-lowest since 2011. Prediction: 0.8.

— World Series: Dodgers-Rays Games 4 and 5. Predictions: 4.0 and 4.9; results: 4.8 and 5.3.
— NFL: Seahawks-Cardinals. Prediction: 8.3; result: 7.9.
— NFL: mostly Buccaneers-Raiders or Packers-Texans. Prediction: 8.8; result: 8.7.
— CFB: Michigan-Minnesota. Prediction: 2.7; result: 2.7.
— IndyCar season finale: St. Petersburg. Prediction: 0.48; result: 0.41.