Ratings predictions: World Series and more

World Series ratings tend to hover around record-low levels even in normal years, so it was close to a sure thing that this year’s neutral-site version would sink to a new nadir. The only question was how low the ratings would go.

Prior to this year, no World Series game had ever averaged less than a 5.9 rating. That record fell in Game 1 (5.1) and then again in Game 2 (5.0). Game 3 (based on the highly preliminary, non-time zone adjusted fast-nationals) seems likely to go even lower. Given that World Series ratings historically bottom out for the Saturday night game, Game 4 seems likely to set the mark for futility. A rating in the low 4.0s is the most likely scenario, though one cannot rule out something in the 3.0s.

Given the record-low numbers for other marquee sporting events, the ratings for this year’s World Series are not all that shocking. Clearly there are issues affecting sports ratings across the board that are not unique to any one property. With that said, it is notable that the World Series has done so poorly when it — theoretically — has distinct advantages over the other events played this fall. While the staples of spring and summer changed seasons, the Fall Classic is taking place in the fall. While other events were crammed into the busiest sporting calendar in recent memory, baseball faces less competition than usual with basketball and hockey idled.

Given those factors, one might have hoped World Series ratings would land somewhere closer to normal than to the subterranean levels of other sports. No dice. Maybe that is because of a general loss of interest in sports, or a national malaise, or dramatically increased interest in the election — or maybe all three. Whatever the reason, anyone who thought sports’ ratings slump was limited to one league, or just to leagues playing out-of-season, was sorely mistaken.

Last year’s Game 4 had a 5.9 rating — as previously noted, the lowest in World Series history at the time. Game 5 had a 6.5. Predictions: 4.0 and 4.9.

NBC was originally set to oppose the World Series with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. The head-to-head between the Buccaneers and Rays would have been interesting, and probably a much-publicized win for the NFL. Instead, thanks to COVID-19 concerns on the Raiders, NBC gets Seahawks-Cardinals. Not a bad matchup, but also not the kind of game that should shake SNF out of its recent slump.

The past three editions of SNF have averaged less than a 9.0 rating, the longest such streak since 2008. Two of the games aired opposite the NBA Finals and a third faced an NLCS Game 7. Perhaps Bucs-Raiders could have turned things around. It seems unlikely Seahawks-Cardinals will. Last year, SNF averaged a 10.4 opposite the World Series (in Week 8). Prediction: 8.3.

NBC’s loss is a gain for FOX, which plans to send Buccaneers-Raiders to a plurality of markets Sunday. With 31 percent of markets getting Brady and another 30 percent getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Deshaun Watson, expect a solid number for Sunday’s singleheader. Last year’s Week 7 edition averaged an 8.0. So far this season, the singleheader has topped out at a 9.0 in Weeks 2 and 4 (FOX sent the Cowboys to a plurality of markets both weeks). Prediction: 8.8.

Just over two months after the Big Ten claimed the mantle of responsibility and caution by canceling its fall sports season, Big Ten football is now underway. Can the return of college football’s second-most popular conference help turn the ratings around? This late in the season, how much anticipation can really exist for a season debut? In the same window on week eight of last season, Michigan-Penn State had a 4.0 rating. Prediction: 2.7.

Seven months after it was forced to abandon its season opener at St. Petersburg just days before the green flag, IndyCar is set to end its season at St. Petersburg on Sunday. Lost in the conversation about record-low ratings is that finishing one’s season is an accomplishment in this environment. The goal as of March 11 was not to get great ratings, but to find some way to make it to the finish line and put 2020 in the record books. Last year’s season finale — at Leguna Seca in September — averaged a 0.50 rating. Last year’s St. Petersburg race — in March on NBCSN — averaged a 0.32. Prediction: 0.48.