Ratings predictions: Wild Card, CFP and more

Success is relative. Until about mid-March of last year, had one been told that NFL regular season viewership would drop seven percent to a three-year low, and that the schedule would feature games on every day of the week — including one on a Wednesday afternoon — ‘success’ is not the word that would have come to mind.

In a sports landscape marked by plunging ratings and outright cancellations of games, the NFL regular season stands out as a clear, even overwhelming, success. Yet it is too early for the league to celebrate. The real test begins this weekend. If the NFL can get through its postseason with its schedule intact and only a modest ratings drop, then it can pop the champagne.

Wild Card weekend will look quite different this year, thanks to an expanded postseason field and some creative scheduling. NFL games will air on the likes of Freeform and Nickelodeon — not to mention over-the-top streaming services like ESPN+, Peacock and CBS All-Access. It will also look different for one other reason: the inclusion, for the first time since 2003, of the Cleveland Browns.

Browns-Steelers (8:15p Sun NBC): The Browns are set to make their first playoff appearance in 18 years in the NFL’s first Sunday night Wild Card game. Cleveland only played five games this season that aired in a majority of markets, and those appearances topped out at a middling 8.7 rating. Even so, the Browns have taken on the air of a marquee team in recent years — and the end of their playoff drought is one of the most compelling stories of Wild Card weekend. Given the storyline, their opponent, and the Sunday night timeslot, a strong rating seems likely.

NBC’s lone Wild Card game last season — Seahawks-Eagles in a late Sunday afternoon window — averaged a 19.2. Given the trend in NFL ratings this season, and the fact that Sunday night games typically fare a bit worse than their late afternoon counterparts, expect this year’s number to fall just a bit short. Prediction: 18.0.

Bears-Saints (4:40p Sun CBS, Nickelodeon): The strangest sight of Wild Card weekend figures to be live NFL action on Nickelodeon. The network defined by Spongebob Squarepants — Rugrats if you’re a bit older and You Can’t Do That on Television if you’re quite a bit older — will have its own separate kid-focused coverage featuring the network’s patented slime, younger broadcasters (led by 24-year old Noah Eagle), and augmented reality googly eyes on replays. It is a perhaps-overdue effort to cultivate younger viewers who have largely been ignored in sports TV since the 1990s. Will it have any meaningful impact on the ratings? Hard to say. In trying to attract young viewers who have spent most of their lives streaming programs on-demand rather than watching live programming, even the NFL might be fighting a losing battle. Still, the more networks the better. Ratings should at least approach last year’s 19.2 for Seahawks-Eagles. Prediction: 18.4.

Ravens-Titans (1:05p Sun ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, Freeform): The Nickelodeon simulcast makes a bit more sense than ESPN using Freeform, the network formerly known as ABC Family (and Fox Family) whose top shows require a decent amount of Googling to identify. It is hard to imagine Freeform’s “Watch Party” — featuring Maria Taylor, Jesse Palmer and DJ Khaled — chipping in much of an audience. Luckily for ESPN, the flagship, ABC and ESPN2 should more-than-suffice.

In past years, ESPN was saddled with the Saturday afternoon Wild Card window, typically the lowest rated of the weekend. Sunday afternoon is a major upgrade. Last year’s early Sunday Wild Card game had a 17.4 rating, which if matched would be ESPN/ABC’s highest rated NFL telecast since Super Bowl 40. Prediction: 16.5.

Tampa Bay-Washington (8:15p Sat NBC): Tom Brady returns to the playoffs as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on Washington Saturday night. For a sub-.500 team, Washington enters the postseason laden with storylines. On the more heartwarming front, there is Alex Smith’s comeback and Ron Rivera’s fight against cancer. Less so is the team name controversy and legal issues surrounding owner Dan Snyder. For a generically-named “Football Team,” Washington could well pull its own weight in the ratings. Last year’s late Saturday Wild Card game — Tennessee’s upset of the Patriots in Brady’s final game with the team — will nonetheless be tough to match (17.1). Prediction: 16.4.

Rams-Seahawks (4:40p Sat FOX): On a Wild Card weekend when CBS and NBC get two games each and ESPN gets an improved timeslot, FOX is left out in the cold. The Saturday afternoon timeslot is usually the lowest rated of Wild Card weekend, and this year does not even have the benefit of being the first game played. Add to that the presence of the low-key Rams, and FOX is likely to air its lowest rated Wild Card game since at least 2008 (15.1) — and maybe further back. Prediction: 14.2.

Colts-Bills (1:05p Sat CBS): Wild Card weekend began Saturday with the Bills’ first home playoff game since 1996. While 1 PM on Saturday is not the greatest possible TV window, the Buffalo storyline should balance that out somewhat. Expect one of the lower Wild Card ratings of recent years, but nothing too crazy. Prediction: 12.8.

College football is one game away from putting the 2020 season in the books. If all goes well Monday, there will be no more discussion of cancellations, postponements and last-minute opponents until August at the earliest — a much needed reprieve for anyone following the sport. Since the wave of cancellations and postponements last March, the end of every successfully-completed season has been more a relief than anything else. In a college football season that was particularly unpleasant, that will especially be the case.

As for the game itself, Alabama-Ohio State is easily the best National Championship matchup since the formation of the College Football Playoff. These teams played in the highest rated CFP semifinal back in 2015 (15.2) and are arguably the two biggest draws in the sport. Given the declining ratings trend throughout the college football season — which extended into the New Year’s Day semifinals — ratings should be lower than one would ordinarily expect for such a matchup. The numbers may well fall short of LSU-Clemson last year (14.3), even Clemson-Alabama two years ago (13.8). Still, do not expect the kind of shocking record-lows suffered by other championship events over the past year. Prediction: 12.0.

College basketball’s highest rated regular season games are usually a mix of Duke, Carolina, Kentucky and whichever games are lucky enough to have an NFL playoff lead-in. Oklahoma-Kansas is not a marquee matchup on paper, but expect it to draw the highest rating of the season thus far. The bar is low — no game has cracked even a 1.2 thus far. Prediction: 1.4.