Ratings predictions: NFL Draft, Derby and more

A year ago, the NFL Draft had the benefit — if it can be called that — of taking place during the quietest period in modern sports history. With literally zero competing sporting events taking place anywhere in the U.S., night one soared to an all-time record 8.8 rating and 15.26 million viewers across ESPN, ABC and NFL Network. That was followed be record-highs for night two (4.9, 8.05M) and day three (2.8, 4.17M). The strong numbers for the Draft — and ESPN’s documentary series “The Last Dance,” which premiered around the same time — fueled expectations of a sports ratings surge once the games got going again.

As all are aware by now, that ratings surge never came. Sports returned from hiatus with historic lows almost across the board, from the NBA Finals and World Series to even February’s Super Bowl — the lowest rated since 1969. In that context, last year’s Draft ratings bonanza stands out as an outlier unlikely to be replicated anytime soon.

The reasons are not hard to figure. Instead of running unopposed, Thursday’s first round faces 21 scheduled Major League Baseball, NBA, NHL regular season games, including three on national television. The competition figures to be light compared to an ordinary year — in 2019, the Draft faced NBA and NHL playoff games — but it should be enough to keep viewership below last year’s levels.

In addition, fewer people are watching TV now than a year ago. There were 94.33 million viewers watching television in primetime on night one of last year’s Draft. On Thursday, February 4 — the last Thursday for which such information was publicly available — that figure had dropped to 74.34 million. That is no outlier. Throughout the summer and fall, as marquee sporting events plunged to new lows, viewing levels were consistently far below what would normally be expected. (The networks have their theories as to why.)

With more competition and a smaller pool of viewers, a viewership decline seems inevitable. How low will the numbers go? Night one had a 7.0 rating in 2018 and 2019, trailing only last year as the highest ever. It had a 5.5 in 2017, the last year the Draft aired exclusively on cable. Something in between seems about right. Predictions: 6.3 (night one), 4.0 (night two), 2.1 (day three).

The Kentucky Derby was the canary in the coal mine of last year’s ratings slump. Pushed from the first Saturday of May to Labor Day weekend, ratings plunged nearly 50 percent from 9.4 to a record-low 4.8. Only in the current era could such a low rating put the Derby on par with NBA Finals and World Series games. That 4.8 still ranks among the ten highest non-football sports ratings since sports went dark in March of last year (T-#9), behind five MLB Postseason games last fall and three in this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

One of the biggest questions facing the media industry right now — sports and otherwise — is whether the ratings downturn is temporary. The Masters was the first of last year’s displaced sporting events to return to its usual time of year. The final round scored a massive 62% ratings jump, but the 5.5 rating was still the second-lowest since 1957. A similar jump for the Derby would result in a 7.8 rating – higher than the Gonzaga-UCLA thriller in the Final Four (7.6) – which seems unrealistically high.

Anything above a 6.0 would qualify as a success story in this environment. Only three non-football sportscasts have managed a rating that high over the past year. Even Sunday’s Oscars failed to hit that mark, averaging a 5.9 per Douglas Pucci of Programming Insider. Something in the 5.0s would at least be going in the right direction. Anything at or below last year would raise some eyebrows, and possibly some concern. Prediction: 5.5.

ABC is set to finish its NBA regular season run this weekend — with two weeks still left on the regular season schedule — as the Nets face the Bucks. Brooklyn is a title favorite, but its drawing power is limited so long as its “Big Three” never shares the court at the same time. Milwaukee and its two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo have never drawn particularly well. This is a marquee matchup on paper, but do not expect particularly strong numbers. ESPN has featured Brooklyn in the same 3:30 ET window the past two weeks, earning a 0.85 for their game against Phoenix last Sunday and a 0.9 against Miami two weeks ago — solid numbers for cable that would not cut it on ABC. Prediction: 1.0.

Sunday Night Baseball had a strong outing last weekend with the burgeoning Padres-Dodgers rivalry, cracking a 1.0 rating for just the second time since August 2019. Ratings should fall back to earth a bit this week with the comparably played-out rivalry between the Mets and Phillies. The fifth Sunday night game last season aired in August and had a 0.8 rating (Red Sox-Yankees). The fifth game in 2019 aired in April and also had a 0.8 (Indians-Astros). Prediction: 0.8.

Now a lame-duck, NBC is set to begin the home stretch of its 16-year NHL run with the defending champion Lightning facing consistently crummy Detroit. If one is wondering why this game was not flexed out, it is the only one on schedule Sunday. In the same Sunday afternoon window last week, NBC had a 0.61 for Bruins-Penguins. Prediction: 0.52.

PGA Tour ratings continue to impress, at least outside of the majors. Nineteen of the last 24 windows on broadcast TV have posted an increase in ratings and/or viewership, no small feat given the industry-wide circumstances. The Tampa Bay tournament has been a consistently low-rated affair — with one noted exception — making another jump this weekend seem likely. The last time it was played in 2019, final round coverage had a 1.6. Prediction: 1.9.

The most recent Formula 1 race — the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix two weeks ago — scored a 0.53 rating on ESPN despite a bright-and-early 8:55 AM ET start. Just a few hours earlier in primetime, ESPN aired a UFC main event that was nominally higher at a 0.55. Such solid numbers are old hat for F1, which like the English Premier League regularly draws well in early morning windows. Expect another solid outing for this week’s Portugal Grand Prix. Last year’s race had a 0.33 in ESPN2 in October. Prediction: 0.47.

It seems a virtual lock that ratings will increase for NASCAR at Kansas. Last year’s race, a midweek affair that aired opposite MLB Opening Night, tied the lowest Cup Series rating on any network since at least 2000 (0.9). The last weekend edition in 2019 had a 1.2. Prediction: 1.2.