Ratings predictions: NBA Game 7s, U.S. Open and more

Through Friday, no game of the NBA Playoffs has averaged more viewers than the much-hyped thriller between LeBron James’ Lakers and Stephen Curry’s Warriors in the Play-in Tournament. That will no longer be the case after this weekend, what with both Eastern Conference semifinals going the distance.

As a television draw, the Nets are not the Lakers or the Warriors. They are not even Kevin Durant’s old Oklahoma City Thunder, who drew remarkably well during the NBA’s early 2010s ratings renaissance. Nonetheless, in a postseason most notable for who is not playing — a list that gets longer with each passing injury — having Durant and even a hobbled James Harden is certainly better than the alternative.

Nets games were not particularly impressive draws to start the postseason, but that has started to change. Durant’s stirring Game 5 performance Tuesday night delivered the largest audience of the postseason on cable, and Game 6 on Thursday ranks third. Expect even stronger superlatives for Game 7, which has an outside shot at the largest NBA audience of the season. The current mark is 7.01 million for Mavericks-Lakers on ESPN and ABC Christmas Day.

There were two semifinal Game 7s in the “bubble” last year, Raptors-Celtics at 4.69 million viewers on TNT and Nuggets-Clippers at 5.43 million on ESPN — pretty strong numbers for months-delayed September basketball, but pretty weak numbers for a Game 7 at this point of the postseason. There were also two semifinal Game 7s in 2019. Blazers-Nuggets drew 6.34 million on ABC and Kawhi Leonard’s career-defining game winner over the Sixers drew 6.94 million on TNT.

Expect Game 7 to fit the overarching trend of this postseason — a big jump over the “bubble” and a slight increase, if any, over 2019. With the Saturday night timeslot, a decline from 2019 seems plausible. Prediction: 6.48M.

The other Game 7 in the East Playoffs pits the surprising Hawks against the top-seeded Sixers. No series has really stood out as a big draw in the second round of the playoffs, with most games hovering in the mid-high three million range — not bad, especially by today’s standards, but nothing special either. The Sunday night timeslot figures to juice the numbers a bit, but competition from the conclusion of the U.S. Open is a mitigating factor. Expect numbers to be about on par with Bucks-Nets on Saturday night, if slightly lower given the lesser starpower involved. Prediction: 6.33M.

No Kawhi Leonard and probably no Chris Paul, but Clippers-Suns is still about the best-case scenario for this year’s Western Conference Finals, given the alternatives. There is no guarantee viewership will keep pace with last year’s West Finals, which despite airing in the months-delayed “bubble” nonetheless featured LeBron James and the Lakers. Take out the Game 2 that aired opposite Sunday Night Football, and last year’s Lakers-Nuggets series regularly placed in the high 4 million range — low by conference final standards, but not extremely so. Given the injuries and the relative unfamiliarity of Phoenix, lower numbers are possible here. That includes for Sunday’s Game 1, ABC’s second game of the playoffs to air opposite the final round of a golf major.

Last year’s Nuggets-Lakers opener averaged 4.92 million on a Friday night in September. Prediction: 5.02M.

Viewership is a virtual lock to increase for the final round of the U.S. Open, which last year sank to an all-time record low audience of 3.21 million opposite a full slate of NFL games. The return to Father’s Day — and the West Coast, and Torrey Pines specifically — should be enough to boost the numbers significantly. In 2019, the last normal year (and the previous time the tournament took place on the West Coast), final round viewership was a strong 7.3 million, the highest since 2013.

That 2019 number seems unrealistically high in this era, even with ratings largely rebounding from last year’s historic lows. A stronger leaderboard could put that figure in reach, but the names in contention as of Saturday evening have yet to really move the needle. Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka generate more headlines than ratings points at this juncture and Rory McIlroy’s drawing power is real but modest. The only golfers with true pull in the Nielsens are Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and to a lesser extent Jordan Spieth, with the latter of the three in a tie for 22 as of Saturday. Perhaps if Spieth makes a run, that seven million figure may become a possibility. Prediction: 6.09M.

Viewership for the third round of the Stanley Cup playoffs is thus far showing modest improvement over last year in the “bubble,” though comparisons to 2019 are less charitable. With broadcaster NBC a lame duck, and this season ultimately serving as a bridge between last year’s chaos and a coveted return to normalcy, the stakes are not overwhelmingly high. Expect a nondescript number for Saturday’s Lightning-Islanders Game 4 on USA Network, though viewership should jump from last year’s Game 4 between the same teams on the NBC broadcast network — which averaged just 944,000 viewers opposite Week 1 of the NFL season. Prediction: 1.19M.

Viewership for the U.S. Olympic swimming trials is down substantially from 2016 due to the absence of Michael Phelps, unusual competition from the NBA and NHL playoffs, and — presumably — a lack of anticipation for a year-delayed Olympics that still seems like a mere hypothetical. Lead-ins from the U.S. Open could boost this weekend’s numbers, but do not expect anything particularly strong. In 2016, the final night of the swimming trials (which included some track & field coverage) averaged 3.98 million. Prediction: 3.12M.

NASCAR’s Cup Series is set to make its Nashville debut — and its NBC season debut — on Sunday. On a day filled with sports competition, can the new race keep pace? The least-watched Cup Series event of the season was another new race, Circuit of the Americas on FS1 last month (2.36M). Prediction: 2.19M.