First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- College football on ABC, regional. Prediction: 3.3. Final rating: 5.3. #1 Ohio State getting toppled by Illinois gave ABC a big bump on Saturday afternoon; the 5.3 rating for regional action in the 3:30 PM window was a 29% jump from the 4.1 rating for comparable coverage last year. The 5.3 rating is higher than any NASCAR race on ABC.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Kansas/Oklahoma State. Prediction: 3.5. Final rating: 3.9. Kansas is not the first name that comes to mind when one thinks of college football powerhouses. Still, the Jayhawks helped lead ABC to a 5% increase in ratings on Saturday night.
- SEC on CBS, Auburn/Georgia. Prediction: 3.6. Final rating: 2.3. A huge drop for SEC football on CBS. After weeks of increasing ratings, Auburn/Georgia drew a 2.3 on Saturday, down 41% from the comparable South Carolina/Florida game in ’06.
- NASCAR on ABC, Checker Auto Parts 500. Prediction: 3.8. Final rating: 3.8. NASCAR ratings have been declining for the past two years, and that ratings erosion does not look as if it will end soon. The 3.8 rating for the penultimate race in the Chase for the Nextel Cup was a 19% decline from the 4.7 for the comparable race last year.
- NFL on FOX, Cowboys/Giants. Prediction: 14.1. Final rating: 15.6. Solid numbers for a big-market NFC showdown. The 15.6 rating for Cowboys/Giants marks a 15% jump from the Saints/Steelers game last year.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Colts/Chargers. Prediction: 9.7. Final rating: 10.8. So far this season, NBC Sunday Night Football is down 11% from ’06.
This week’s predictions:
- College football on ABC, Ohio State/Michigan, 12 PM Saturday — ESPN/ABC has hyped this game almost beyond reason. However, that hype cannot overcome the fact that this game is still a battle between the #7 and #21 teams in the country. Look for a decent rating in the noon timeslot, but nothing close to the 13.9 the game drew last year, when it was the battle of the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. Prediction: 3.9.
- College football on ABC, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — The #3 team in the BCS, Kansas, may not yet be enough of a draw for their game against Iowa State to get huge numbers. Look for several mediocre regional match-ups to draw equally mediocre ratings. Prediction: 3.5.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Oklahoma/Tx Tech, 8 PM Saturday — Despite featuring the #4 team in the BCS, Oklahoma/Texas Tech will more than likely draw a low rating. Prediction: 3.2.
- SEC on CBS, LSU/Mississippi St., 3:30 PM Saturday — With LSU ranked #1 again, CBS is almost guaranteed to draw a bigger rating this week than the 1.9 for Auburn/Alabama last year. Prediction: 3.0.
- MLS Cup on ABC, Revolution/Dynamo, 12 PM Sunday — In each of the past three years, the MLS Cup has drawn a 0.8/2 rating on ABC. In a noon timeslot, look for ratings to fall even lower than that number. The record low is 0.6. Prediction: 0.7.
- NASCAR on ABC, Ford 400, 3:30 PM Sunday — NASCAR has been plagued by declining ratings in each of the past two years. NASCAR chairman Brian France blamed poor ratings last year on NBC being a lame duck and not promoting the sport. With ESPN/ABC hyping NASCAR to exhaustive levels, and ratings continuing to fall, perhaps NASCAR is on its way to an NBA/MLB type decline. The final race of the year is more of a coronation than a competition, as Jimmie Johnson will likely capture the Nextel Cup Championship. With that in mind, look for a mediocre end to a mediocre season. Prediction: 4.0.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Patriots/Bills, 8 PM Sunday — The first flexible schedule game of the season features the undefeated New England Patriots. While New England/Buffalo is not the type of titanic battle of big markets that would draw a rating of 15 or higher, NBC can be satisfied with a rating in the 11-12 range. Prediction: 11.1.
