Ratings predictions and analysis for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final and more. Stanley Cup Final viewership is slightly outpacing 2019, but how much longer will that remain the case? Plus, predictions for NASCAR’s NBC season debut and the men’s College World Series.
Can the Stanley Cup Final continue to outpace 2019?
NHL ratings this season have been determined as much by the league’s new media rights deal as anything else. The regular season was not much of a draw, owing to a dearth of nationally televised games. The first three rounds of the playoffs aired exclusively on cable and accordingly were the most-watched ever on cable, but the lack of broadcast network games brought the average audience slightly below 2019. Now, the first Stanley Cup Final ever to air entirely on broadcast television is trending at a four-year high, slightly outpacing a 2019 series that — while a stronger draw in nearly every respect — had its average dragged down by two games on NBCSN.
Indeed, Avalanche-Lightning ranks as not just the most-watched Cup Final in four years (a distinction that is not overly impressive considering the last two years), but the second-most watched in seven and the sixth-most watched since the owners’ disastrous 2004-05 lockout. Such is the benefit of avoiding the contractually-mandated pair of games on cable that were inevitably the least-watched of previous series.
Scheduling changes can only go so far in a best-of-seven series and it seems doubtful that this year’s Final can maintain its slim one percent lead over 2019, a series that went the full seven and culminated with the largest NHL audience of the modern era. Sunday’s unexpected Game 6 should help, but even with a seventh game it seems inevitable that this series will fall off of that 2019 pace. No shame in losing to Blues-Bruins, but just where will this series rank when all is said and done?
In the current era, just about any viewership figure can look pretty good. A competitive NBA Finals involving Stephen Curry just averaged fewer viewers than Spurs-Pistons did in 2005 and there is no panic in NBA or ESPN headquarters. After the past two years, the bar for success is just not what it once was. If the Avalanche close things out Sunday night, it seems likely that this Cup Final will end up in the mid-four million range, ranking near the middle-of-the-pack among the past 20 finals. In this era, what is middling for live sports is unmatched by anything else on television.
Game 6 should be the most-watched of the series, but do not count on viewership matching the 6.47 million Bruins-Blues scored in ’19 or the 6.99 million Penguins-Predators drew in ’17.
NHL Stanley Cup Final Game 6: Avalanche-Lightning (8p Sun ABC). Prediction: 3.1, 5.38M.
Will NASCAR maintain its viewership gains in the NBC portion of the season?
NASCAR begins the NBC portion of its season this weekend with a rare Sunday evening race from Nashville. Viewership for the FOX portion of the season increased six percent from last year and nearly matched 2019, no small feat given the decline of television viewing (even with out-of-home placing an asterisk on all comparisons to 2019 or prior years).
Once, NASCAR was the ratings darling of the sports world much as Formula 1 is today. While those days are long gone, it is worth noting that the Cup Series remains easily the most-watched motorsports circuit on U.S. television. NASCAR’s average audience of 3.7 million viewers nearly triples that of F1 (1.3M), with the obvious caveat that F1 races air in the overnight and early morning hours and predominantly on cable. Even so, as F1 nears a new media rights deal with ESPN worth $75-90 million, it should not be overlooked that NASCAR — currently earning a rights fee that is nearly ten times higher ($820M/year) — is simply on another level. That may not remain the case long-term; multiple F1 races this season have outdrawn later-starting NASCAR Cup Series races in the key young demographics of adults 18-34 and 18-49. Nevertheless, it is the case for now and the near future.
Last year’s inaugural Nashville race averaged a 1.5 rating and 2.49 million viewers on NBCSN. The move up to broadcast television will no doubt boost those numbers significantly, especially given the timeslot. As anyone who follows NFL ratings knows, late Sunday afternoon and evening is arguably a stronger window than Sunday night.
NASCAR Cup Series: Nashville (5p Sun NBC). Prediction: 2.2, 3.72M.
Will a new weekend schedule lift the men’s CWS Final?
Viewership for the men’s College World Series was up 17 percent entering the best-of-three Final and the lead over last year should only grow. Under a new weekend scheduling format, this year’s Final began Saturday, continues Sunday and could conclude with a winner-take-all Game 3 on Monday. Those weekend slots, particularly the Sunday afternoon Game 2, could be a ratings boon compared to the previous Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday schedule.
It goes without saying that Game 1 will end up with a big increase; last year’s opener aired on ESPN2 due to the NBA Playoffs and averaged fewer than 500,000 viewers. How will Game 2 fare? Last year’s game averaged 1.41 million and the 2019 game 1.96 million, both on Tuesday nights. In the same Sunday afternoon window last week, Texas-Texas A&M drew just shy of 1.2 million, and that was without a title at stake. Expect viewership to comfortably top last year and perhaps approach the 2019 figure.
In addition, look for the men’s CWS to outdraw Sunday Night Baseball for a second-straight week. Last weekend, Notre Dame-Oklahoma averaged more viewers on ESPN2 than Astros-White Sox in the same window on ESPN. This weekend, Oklahoma-Mississippi should have no trouble topping its Dodgers-Braves lead-out.
Men’s College World Series: Oklahoma-Mississippi Game 2 (3p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 1.1, 1.88M.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers-Braves (7p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 0.8, 1.42M.
Previous predictions
— NBA Finals Game 5: Celtics-Warriors. Prediction: 7.5, 14.2M; result: 7.0, 13.02M.
— NHL Eastern Conference Final Game 6: Rangers-Lightning. Prediction: 1.4, 2.82M; result: 1.35, 2.84M.
— MLB: mostly Cubs-Yankees. Prediction: 1.3, 2.15M; result: 1.2, 2.10M.
— PGA Tour: final round of the Canadian Open. Prediction: 1.5, 2.52M; 1.8, 2.78M.
— Belmont Stakes, race portion. Prediction: 2.8, 4.82M; result: 2.65, 4.72M.
