The New England Patriots have been Santa Claus for the NFL’s television rights partners.
So far this season, the undefeated Patriots have been involved in the three highest rated NFL games in the past eleven years and the highest rated program in cable history. Thanks in part to airing games involving the team, ratings for the NFL on CBS were up 8% through Week 15.
Nine nationally televised games involving the Patriots (excluding Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins) have averaged a 13.4 rating. Isolating the games that aired on broadcast (CBS, NBC and FOX), that average jumps to 14.6.
With that in mind, it only makes sense that even the NFL Network, plagued by limited distribution and ongoing battles with cable operators, is expecting a huge rating for their Patriots broadcast this Saturday. New England will be going for a perfect season, against a team from the largest television market in the nation. There is no doubt that this game would have drawn a 20 rating or higher on CBS FOX (which would have had rights to the game) or NBC, and there is every likelihood the game would have set a new record as the most watched program ever on cable, had it aired on ESPN.
Still, even airing on the NFL Network, the Patriots’ quest for perfection is bound to draw a huge rating. Earlier this year, Packers/Cowboys — a battle of storied teams who were both 10-1 at the time — drew a 5.6 national rating and 10.1 million viewers on NFL Network, proving that games on the niche network can draw audiences on par with NBA Finals games on ABC.
With the Patriots one win away from an achievement that has only been done three times in NFL history, it would not be surprising if this game becomes one of the highest rated cable programs ever. It would take quite a performance for NFL Network to draw the largest audience in cable history (17.5 million for Patriots/Ravens earlier this month). That being said, this game could easily draw 12 to 14 million viewers, on par with the numbers for ESPN Monday Night Football (which accounts for eight of the top 10 most watched programs ever on cable).
Executives at NFL Network are forecasting a national rating of 7.0 or higher. If the game draws a rating lower than 7.6, it will be the lowest rated nationally televised Patriots game this season.
Ratings for New England Patriots games in 2007.
Through Week 15 only; all ratings are national ratings.
Asterisk (*) indicates game aired in 1:00 PM window.
9.4: at Jets* (9/9/07, 1 PM, CBS)
9.8: vs. Chargers (9/16/07, 8:15 PM NBC)
11.6: vs. Bills* (9/23/07, 1 PM CBS)
7.6: at Bengals (10/1/07, 8:30 PM ESPN)
6.7: vs. Browns* (10/7/07, 1 PM CBS)
18.0: at Cowboys (10/14/07, 4:15 PM CBS)
7.8: at Dolphins* (10/21/07, 1 PM CBS)
13.1: vs. Washington (10/28/07, 4:15 PM FOX)
20.1: at Colts (11/4/07, 4:15 PM CBS)
9.3: at Bills (11/18/07, 8:15 PM NBC)
13.4: vs. Eagles (11/25/07, 8:15 PM NBC)
11.0: at Ravens (12/3/07, 8:30 PM ESPN)
18.4: vs. Steelers (12/10/07, 4:15 PM CBS)
13.3: vs. Jets* (12/17/07, 1 PM CBS)
* Edited to fix mistake; FOX would not have had the rights to Patriots/Giants, as previously written.
