Toni Fitzgerald of Media Life Magazine today wrote an article asserting that controversy over the BCS rankings will lead to lower ratings for the major bowl games. Fitzgerald states that:
Just why is not hard to figure out. Fans want to see a national championship game that pits the two undisputed top teams against each other. They do not want to see a contender who scraped into the game by virtue of a few tenths of a point in the convoluted BCS scoring system. It’s bad enough when there’s two teams contending for the second spot. This year’s three confounds the problem exponentially.
Flawed. Why? Because if USC plays Ohio State, ratings will be very high. Not as high as last year’s 20+ rating for the Rose Bowl, but certainly very high.
Also, and more importantly, the controversy this year isn’t nearly as bad as it was in 2004. Remember, there were three 1 loss teams that year; Oklahoma came in after losing the conference championship game to Kansas State. USC and LSU, both on a roll, were forced to battle for the #2 spot. When LSU beat Oklahoma to win the BCS title, they beat a team that was far from #1 in the land. When USC won the Rose Bowl, it was fairly easy for the AP to rank the Trojans as the best team, causing a split national title.
The controversy was bad in 2005 as well, as an undefeated Auburn team was shut out from the national championship game. USC played Oklahoma that year in an Orange Bowl that turned out to be an unwatchable blowout in every respect, including the awful halftime performance by national joke Ashlee Simpson. That Orange Bowl was the lowest rated National Championship Game of the BCS era (13.7 rating with a 22 share).
2007 won’t be like 2004 or 2005. Without a split national title or an undefeated team sitting on the sidelines, and with USC/Ohio State in the cards, the ratings actually look to be quite good. At this point, most observers are coming around to the idea that USC is the second best team in the nation, though Gator and Wolverine fans would disagree. Michigan/Ohio State in a rematch could possibly get lower ratings than their first meeting, and Florida/Ohio State would get decent, respectable ratings–nothing too special.
No matter what, don’t look for any record lows for college football this year. Based on football’s popularity, previous years ratings, and the fact that FOX gets the game on a Monday night, I would project that the ratings would end up around a 15 or a 16.
