John Consoli reports:
This is relatively unsurprising, partly for the reasons given above, and also because last year’s playoffs were an across-the-board success. That being said, one should be cautious when handicapping how well the playoffs will do on television this year, especially considering the poor regular season ratings.
So far, the highest rated NBA telecast of the year was the All Star Game on TNT, with a 4.2 national rating. The highest rated game on ABC was a 3.5 for the Lakers/Heat Christmas Day game.
Those numbers by themselves are not bad at all (they compare favorably to playoff numbers) but considering that the rest of the ratings drop off considerably from there (the next highest rated game is a 2.8 for Spurs/Lakers in January), it becomes obvious that the situation is not good.
If the Lakers end up playing Phoenix or Dallas in the first round, and if the Miami/Cleveland match-up holds, first round ratings (at least on ABC) could be up significantly — and ratings for the first round are always the lowest of the entire postseason. If the Lakers get their act together and play San Antonio as a #6 seed (or worse, fall out of the playoffs altogether), and if Cleveland/Miami does not pan out, then the situation becomes more worrisome.
Even if the Lakers play Phoenix or Dallas and Miami plays Cleveland, the NBA does have two rather ominous teams to contend with. The Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz will both make the playoffs this year. Salt Lake City is the #35 media market in the United States, and Toronto does not count in U.S. television ratings. What could quite possibly be a long run for either team — to at least the second round — could be disastrous for the NBA.
Will the NBA Playoffs end up disappointing advertisers this year? Last year was the perfect storm — big market teams, star players playing at their very best, and close games virtually throughout the postseason. It happened with baseball in 2003 and 2004, and since then ratings have fallen off dramatically. However, any drop for the NBA will not be too large (considering that even with the increases from last year, playoff ratings are still generally in the basement), which, at this point, may be all advertisers are looking for.
