Neither the NBA nor the NHL will be the beneficiaries of dream match-ups in their respective championship series. In fact, the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final will feature arguably two of the worst match-ups conceivable for either league.
While the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs played in a hard fought seven-game series in 2005, ratings were terrible. While part of that is due to the fact that the first four games of that series were unwatchable blowouts, the main reason for the poor ratings was the fact that very few fans — casual and otherwise — were interested in watching two superstar-free teams play half-court basketball. Despite the poor ratings, Game 7 of that series still ranks as the highest rated and most viewed NBA game of the past two years.
The last time the Anaheim Ducks played in the Stanley Cup Finals, their seven game series against the New Jersey Devils became the first to average less than a 3.0 rating on U.S. network television. The series averaged a 2.9 average rating for Games 3-7 on ABC, down from a 3.6 the previous year for Red Wings/Hurricanes. At least in 2003, the Ducks were playing a U.S. based opponent. While New Jersey teams are not necessarily ratings-magnets, at least they draw some local audience — whereas Anaheim’s opponent this year, the Ottawa Senators, are a Canadian-based team that does not count towards U.S. television ratings.
Obviously, the NBA will always fare better than the NHL when it comes to television ratings. Even the lowest rated NBA Finals game (Game 2 of the 2003 NBA Finals, which drew a 5.2 rating) is higher than the highest rated Stanley Cup Final game (Game 7 of the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals, which drew a 4.6 rating). That being said, the NBA should see the biggest ratings decline for its championship event this season.
Why? Simply put, the NHL does not have very much further to fall. Last year, NBC averaged a 2.3 rating for Games 3-7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, between small-market Carolina and Canadian-based Edmonton. The upcoming Ducks/Senators series is just as unappealing from a ratings standpoint; while the Ducks play in the second largest media market in the U.S., they are the secondary team — a lesser equivalent of the Clippers. There is certainly no reason to believe that ratings will increase, but considering just how bad the ratings were last year (for a match-up fairly identical to the one this year) there is no reason to believe that ratings will fall too far either.
The NBA had a huge ratings increase last season, making this year’s awful ratings seem that much worse. Last year, the NBA Finals averaged an 8.5 rating through six games, compared to a 7.6 rating through six games for the 2005 Finals (Game 7 inflated the numbers for that series). Last year, the Finals featured a traditional superstar-heavy match-up. Shaquille O’Neal, Dwyane Wade and the Heat played Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks in a six-game series that saw Miami come back from an 0-2 deficit to win. While only one game drew a double-digit rating (Game 6, which drew a 10.1), every single game saw significant increases over the comparable game of the 2005 Finals.
Considering the relatively good ratings last year, Detroit/San Antonio would have to be a true hit with mainstream audiences to keep the momentum. Unfortunately for the NBA, this is highly unlikely. The two Conference Final series currently ongoing are drawing lower ratings than last year, and both series are currently 2-0, in favor of the overwhelming favorites. Neither series is really in doubt; most expect the Spurs and Pistons to advance rather easily. Apathy has set in among the viewing public, especially in light of Commissioner David Stern suspending two Phoenix Suns players (star Amare Stoudemire and his back-up, Boris Diaw) in the second round — a decision widely derided and perceived as helping the Spurs defeat the much more popular Suns.
Casual and NBA fans alike have already shifted focus away from the remainder of this year’s playoffs, with much of the talk in NBA circles centering around the NBA Draft Lottery and the upcoming NBA Draft. With hardly anyone caring about the rest of these playoffs, Spurs/Pistons Part II will be hard pressed to draw even with the ratings the ’05 series managed. And if that is the case, the NBA and ABC are looking at a potentially steep drop in ratings for the championship series.
