It is not as if the NHL is really, truly hurting NBC; after all, the Peacock network is by far the least watched of the Big Four, and has been setting record low ratings for several weeks. In fact, NBC’s Thursday night numbers are an embarrassing shell of former greatness.
That being said, 1.6 million viewers in prime-time — even for a network that has fallen as far as NBC has — is a stunningly bad number, one that is usually followed by a quick cancellation. Of course, sporting events cannot be canceled; the Stanley Cup Finals will continue to go on, and for many years. The question is, on what network will it air?
NBC has the rights to the NHL through next season, and an option for the season after that. With the NBA signing a new eight-year deal with ESPN/ABC and TNT, chances are that NBC will pick up that option.
The NHL does not draw completely horrible numbers during the regular season. The problem is that, unlike the NBA or Major League Baseball, the NHL does not see its ratings increase for the postseason and Stanley Cup Finals — at least, not by much. The NBA averaged a 2.0 regular season rating on ABC, far from stellar. However, the NBA Finals are liable to draw at least a 7.0 rating in prime-time (also far from stellar, but quite larger than the audience for the Stanley Cup Finals).
By contrast, the NHL draws essentially the same ratings for playoff games as for regular season games, and while ratings double for the Stanley Cup Finals, going from a 1.0 to a 2.0 rating is not something to be proud of.
NBC is giving up a maximum of three nights of legitimate prime-time programming (and two Saturday nights, the lowest rated night of the week on which networks do not even bother scheduling regular programs) to air a product that will draw less than 2.5% of the television audience. An all night marathon of ratings-challenged Scrubs or the recently-canceled Studio 60 would draw larger audiences.
Certainly, NBC is not airing the NHL to be charitable; the network expects some sort of benefit from airing the games. Attracting young, primarily male viewers would certainly be a major benefit. Consider this, however: Game 3 drew a 0.6/2 rating in the 18-49 demo, while Game 4 drew a 1.2/3. NBC could easily draw numbers equal to or higher than that by simply airing reruns of entertainment programming. In fact, an NBC presentation of Most Outrageous Moments drew a 2.4 rating in the demo on May 30. The 1.2/3 on Monday night put NBC in the same league as the lowly The CW, which averaged a 0.8 rating in adults 18-49.
So how long can the NHL justify taking up time on broadcast television that can be devoted to programming that draws better numbers?
Will NBC want to continue airing the bulk of the Stanley Cup Finals? The NHL and NBC could arrange to have NBC air Games 1, 4 and 7 of the Cup Finals on three separate Saturday nights (thereby sparing NBC terrible numbers for weeknight programming and pleasing the CBC, which has been lobbying to start the Stanley Cup Finals on a Saturday night), with the rest of the games airing on Versus — a variation of a previous deal, where FOX and ESPN shared the Finals. Affiliates would certainly be pleased by that hypothetical arrangement; terrible ratings for weeknight Stanley Cup Final games have been hurting some NBC late local newscasts.
However, that is hypothetical, and it is unlikely that Gary Bettman — for all his faults — would want to take a step backwards in regards to his league’s national television presence.
That leaves NBC with a decision to make at the end of this short-term television deal. The NHL draws terrible numbers. However, only three nights of weeknight programming will be affected, and only after sweeps. Does it really matter if NBC tanks on two Mondays and one Wednesday in June? Then again, does NBC really need to devote airtime to a program that nets them record low ratings — in addition to the record low ratings entertainment fare is already pulling in? Where is the benefit?
There is no benefit. However, there is no real risk either; NBC only airs a handful of games and is not paying a rights fee. Meaning that the NHL finds itself in a strange place in the sports television landscape; NBC could reasonably drop the league or keep it. There is no risk and no reward, meaning that there is no stability at all for the league on U.S. national television.
