The final round of the U.S. Open saw a 37% increase in television ratings over the previous year. What does that mean? Is golf undergoing a major resurgence in popularity? Consider this: the 6.4/16 for the final round of the Open was down 28% from the 8.9/22 the event drew in 2002. In fact, it was the fifth-lowest rated final round of the U.S. Open since 1999.
The 2006 NBA Playoffs saw ratings increases across the board. ABC averaged a 3.8 rating for ten playoff games, and an 8.5 rating for the NBA Finals, up 15% and 4%, respectively from 2005 numbers. At this time last year, sportswriters were noting how well the NBA was doing, and asking if the league was finally ‘back’. However, if the 2006 NBA Playoffs had come on the heels of the 2004 NBA Playoffs, the 3.8 rating for ABC’s playoff games would have been down 12%, while the NBA Finals would have been down a staggering 26%. So much for success.
If the 2005 NBA Finals, widely regarded as a ratings nightmare, had come on the heels of the 2003 NBA Finals, ratings would have been up 26% — and Spurs/Pistons would suddenly look like Lakers/Celtics.
Sportswriters go on percentages. If the ratings are down 5%, a league is faltering. If the ratings are up 5% the league is ‘back’ from wherever said sportswriters deemed it went. With that in mind, Major League Baseball, the NBA and the NHL are in prime position for the next year.
The World Series, NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals are all coming off of record-low ratings. Because of that, the likelihood of an increase in ratings next year is quite high. For example: Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals drew a 1.1 rating on NBC this year. If Game 3 draws even just a 1.5 rating next year, the NHL will be able to crow about a 36% increase in television ratings for its marquee event. In fact, if NBC were to average just a 2.0 rating for its Stanley Cup Finals next year — a terrible rating by any standard — the network could brag that the numbers were up 25% from 2006. The NHL would suddenly be a league on the rise. Somebody call Sports Illustrated.
Coming off of an NBA Finals that ended in a sweep, involved the San Antonio Spurs, and involved the #17 and #37 television markets in the U.S., the NBA figures to have a much more attractive championship series next year. And even if the 2008 NBA Finals are another small-market stinker, even a mere 7.0 average would result in a 13% ratings increase, and sportswriters talking about the resurgence of the league. Never mind that a 7.0 average would make the ’08 Finals one of the lowest-rated series in league history. Year-to-date, the ratings would be up, and to the purveyors of public opinion, that is all that matters.
With ratings already up, baseball should easily have a better rated World Series than the rain-soaked 2006 battle between St. Louis and Detroit. If the World Series were to jump even to the previous record low, 11.1 in 2005, the ratings would be up 10%, and the Fall Classic would suddenly be regarded as a prime property once again.
With the bar set so very low, the major sporting events are in good position to look as if they are returning to their glory days — even as the numbers continue to decline overall. Ratings for the NBA Finals have fallen 67% from the 1998 peak of 18.7. Ratings for the World Series have fallen 69% from the 1980 peak of 32.8. Ratings for the Stanley Cup Finals on broadcast have fallen 60% from the 1997 peak of 4.0.
Luckily for the major sports leagues and their respective leaders, success and failure is usually measured based on how a league did during a given year. And with that in mind, even a 4.5 rating looks good — if the rating from the previous year was 4.0.
