Not since Zim and Gir traveled to Earth for the first time has the word “doom” been uttered so incessantly.
In the wake of the NBA referee scandal, many pundits are pontificating on the long-term effects on the league. Mike Celizic was one of the first, his MSNBC.com article carrying the headline “Ref betting scandal could hurt NBA for good“. That was followed up by a piece asking “Why should we ever trust NBA again?” Celizic is not alone in his opinion that the NBA may have suffered a deathly blow. TrueHoop asks “Is the League in Jeopardy?“, while Bill Simmons sees the situation as being “One man out, one league in trouble“.
The “league is in crisis.” This is “the league’s doomsday scenario“, a “crisis of possibly epic proportions,” the “worst blow for NBA“. “Rome is burning.”
There is no question that the NBA is facing a dramatic crisis, and it is not hyperbole to say that this is the largest controversy David Stern has ever faced. Since the retirement of Michael Jordan, the NBA has been standing on shaky ground. The league is too black for mainstream America, the victorious teams are too boring for mainstream America, and the ratings set record lows for the regular season, playoffs and Finals last year on ABC.
But is the NBA going to fold? Are the ratings going to crater even more? Will fans stop going to games?
While the myriad of NBA-bashers on the internet would likely collapse in spasms of joy if this were to occur (to say nothing of Gary Bettman), it does not seem likely. Last season, the NBA had its worst year in recent memory ratings wise. Regular season ratings bottomed out on ABC, while TNT and ESPN also suffered small declines. Playoff ratings were down across the board. The NBA Finals set a record low 6.2 rating and the Conference Finals drew their lowest ratings since moving to cable in 2003. With that in mind, next season does not have much of a bar to pass on television; even if the referee scandal does take a chunk out of NBA viewership, it is hard to imagine that the numbers will be any worse than the ones put up last year.
What about attendance? The NBA has set attendance records for three straight seasons. Will fans stop paying to go to games because one referee bet on games? One expects that, in most NBA cities, allegiance to the local teams will outweigh any mistrust of officials. If the players are the draw, and if the players are why fans come to see the games, would fans stop attending games because of a referee scandal? Will people in Phoenix abandon Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire because of Tim Donaghy? Will fans in Cleveland decide that LeBron James no longer matters because of a tainted referee? Granted, attendance will suffer in places like Memphis and even Philadelphia, but attendance was already bad in those cities — the Donaghy scandal will be less of a deterrent than the mediocrity of the teams.
In terms of business, at the very least in the short-term, the NBA is not doomed. This has always been a players’ league, and LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and even newcomers Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are a major reason people tune in and attend the games. As long as the players are not involved in fixing games, there is no reason to expect a mass exodus of viewers and/or patrons. For all the hate the league gets from some corners, it is still tough to imagine that there will be any sharp drop in popularity because of the actions of a previously unknown referee.
The NBA’s credibility has taken a major hit, and trust in referees will be a big issue in the upcoming 2007-08 season. But as long as the situation is remedied (i.e., significantly increased transparency, challenges given to coaches, even the nuclear option of starting over completely in the case of a widespread official corruption), there is no real reason why fans would stay away. People do not watch the NBA for Joey Crawford or Bob Delaney or Dick Bavetta. Referee corruption is a huge black eye, but it is not insurmountable. The casual fan who has no ties to any local teams may be less inclined to tune into games (though if last year was any indication, the casual fan was not watching to begin with), but the NBA is not dying, and Rome is not burning. It will take a lot more than this, i.e., frequent fan-player brawls, etc, for America to rid itself of the NBA.
